Denis Pesche, CIRAD 2Oth March, 2017 Fostering employment through territorial development Brussels Development Briefing no. 48 “Strengthening rural livelihoods in the face of rapid urbanisation in Africa” Denis Pesche, CIRAD 2Oth March, 2017 20th March, 2017

This presentation is centered on the NEPAD Atlas, (second edition) but mobilize also 20th March, 2017

20st March, 2017

A demographic challenge… Population increase among world regions and countries: past and future In the next 40 years: + 1.35 B people in SSA and + 200 M in North Africa 20th March, 2017

A remaining importance of rural population With the exception of North Africa, South Africa and several countries in the Gulf of Guinea: 60% of the population is rural The majority of SSA population will remain rural till the mid- 2040s Nearly 1 B rural residents in 2050 (+350 M) Quelles sources et quelles hypothèses pour ces projections ? 20th March, 2017

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A common employment challenge Yearly youth cohort = 23 M today, 33 M in 2030 In the next 15 years, 440 M youth will enter the “labor market” Nigeria (70 M) Ethiopia (40 M) Egypt (28 M) Most of them will live in rural areas 20th March, 2017

Youth face a very limited economic diversification… SSA’s urbanization occurred without industrialization Consequences are: The remaining role of agriculture, extractive industries and informal services in GDP The importance of informal employment (self-employment and farming) 20st March, 2017

An important factor: the densification of links between towns and the countryside

The African equation African countries face the challenges of an incipient economic and an incomplete demographic transition These two historical challenges are faced in today’s world characterized by globalization and climate change What can be the adequate and effective answers knowing that there will not be duplication of past “transformation pathways” How to deal with poorly diversified economic structures and a growing labor force? 20th March, 2017

The african equation at local level : Mali and Senegal 20th March, 2017

Ségou, Mali 62 504 km2 2,8 millions people total fertility rate 6,6 (2010) 3 urban towns (Ségou, Niono, San) A large irrigated system: Office du Niger 20th March, 2017

Ségou, Mali The demographic challenge TFR: 6,6 in 2010, 4,6 in 2035 4,583 millions The demographic challenge TFR: 6,6 in 2010, 4,6 in 2035 2,763 millions 1,502 millions 20th March, 2017 1993 2015 2035

Ségou, Mali 1987 2009 20th March, 2017

Ségou, Mali The employment challenge 38 000 new workers in 2015  64 000 in 2035 More than 1 million in 20 years 20th March, 2017

Ségou, Mali 1987 2009 Failure of industrialization, development of services and return to agriculture (2011; conflict) 20th March, 2017

Job creation projections in Ségou 1,000,000 jobs to be created between now and 2035 In 2012, 84% of jobs were in the primary sector (agriculture, livestock, forestry) What will the sources of employment be in 2035? In 2012, there were close to 85,000 non-agricultural jobs In 2035 : Agricultural production Agri-activities (downstream, upstream) Rural salaried workforce Others?… 20th March, 2017

Senegal river delta Agribusiness is dynamic and has recently accelerated What is the potential for job creation according to the agricultural models? 20th March, 2017

Senhuile WAF 20th March, 2017

Senhuile Senegalese and Italian capital has been invested in 2010 and then in 2012 26,000 and then 10,000 ha have been allocated, 1150 cultivated in 2016 (maize, rice, soya) High degree of mechanisation Salaried workforce of 180 (25 DK, 70 security…) Uncertain future (areas, crops, jobs…) 20th March, 2017

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WAF Created in 2011 – UK/RSA capital Modest size and return (200 ha + 200 ha/RSE) Market gardening for export (onions, radishes) Model firmly based on local employment A success story, PDIDAS 20th March, 2017

WAF 20th March, 2017

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Jérémy Bourgoin, 2017, CIRAD/ISRA Senhuile : mechanised system, 0.13 jobs/ha (including 45% security…) Family farms average: 0.78 permanent jobs and 2.53 temporary jobs per ha. 13,000 farms (Dagana department). 20th March, 2017

Toward a new Rural (Territorial) Development paradigm… Governance Multisectorial approaches Infrastructures Urban/rural linkages Inclusive policies Gender Demographic driver Sustainability (based on OCDE, 2016) 20th March, 2017

Thank you for your attention 20th March, 2017