Coupled crop-climate modelling

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Presentation transcript:

Coupled crop-climate modelling Tom Osborne Crops and Climate Group

Crops and climate: a coupled system? The atmosphere influences the growth of crops temperature, humidity, rainfall, CO2 The land surface influences the state of the atmosphere CO2 heat, moisture, momentum

Crops currently occupy 12% of the land surface

Added a fully interactive representation of annual crops to HadAM3. Simulates both the impacts of weather on crop growth and the influence of the changing land surface on the atmosphere. time Osborne et al (2007) Development and Assessment of a Coupled Crop-Climate Model Global Change Biology, 13(1) 169-183

Tropical rain-fed annual crop, e.g. groundnut Leaf Area Index

SE India Wet Dry CI (5,95) Dry years drier and hotter in GROW cf. FIX

“where growing crops influence surface temperature AND Impact of change in growing season temperature variability, due to interactive crops, on variability of crop yield. “where growing crops influence surface temperature AND where surface temperature affects crop growth”

Ramankutty et al (2006) asked is the regional climate now more or less suitable for cultivation of crops following land cover change? Suitability indicators: thermal time & soil moisture availability

Source: www.sage.wisc.edu

Thanks for your time t.m.osborne@reading.ac.uk