PEV Models and Scenarios for the 2015 IEPR Revised Forecast Aniss Bahreinian September 14, 2015 Demand Analysis Working Group Meeting

Vehicle Surveys Energy Commission periodically conducts vehicle surveys to assess shifts in consumer preferences. We survey residential and commercial vehicle owners separately. The stated preferences survey revolves around generic (not any particular make and model) hypothetical vehicles defined by their attributes, including vehicle class and fuel type.

Stated Preference Survey Instrument Delete this slide

Survey Data Use survey data to estimate a nested multinomial logit model for the residential segment, composed of 4 behavioral equations: Vehicle Quantity Vehicle Replacement New/Used Vehicle Choice Commercial segment model is composed of one behavioral multinomial logit equation:

Simplified Multinomial Logit Formulation Example: Single Vehicle Choice “Utility” U calculated for each vehicle choice i given m vehicle attributes Vi1…Vim Ui= b1Vi1+b2Vi2+…bmVim, where b’s are estimated coefficients Given n vehicle choices, probability of choosing vehicle i = exp(Ui)/(exp(U1)+exp(U2)+…+exp(Un))

Model Results Define Synthetic Households in Forecast

Fleet size vs Fleet Composition Economic and demographic forecasts determine fleet size, in residential LDV model. GSP determines the growth of fleet size in commercial LDV model. Fuel prices and vehicle attributes determine fleet composition, by vehicle class and fuel type. PEVs compete with other fuel types and vehicle technologies, including FCVs, given their attributes and relative fuel prices.

11Vehicle Technologies, and 15 classes of Vehicles Compete for Consumer Choice Gasoline Gasoline Hybrid Flex Fuel Vehicle (E85) Diesel Diesel Hybrid CNG CNG Hybrid CNG Dual Fuel Battery Electric Vehicle Plug-in Electric vehicle (PHEV) Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicle (FCV) Self Driving Vehicles (New to 2015-2017 survey)

Electricity Consumption Exogenously determined VMT per vehicle forecasts travel demand by commercial LDV. Urban travel (short distance) and Intercity travel (long distance) travel demand models interact with residential LDV model to generate travel demand by households. Different modes compete with each other in the travel demand models; if people choose to take light rail, it will reduce travel by PEVs. To the extent that HSR or electrified rail influences long distance travel by autos, it will reduce personal travel in PEVs.

Preliminary Forecast Scenarios Three demand cases were defined by 3 scenarios each for energy prices, income and population. One set of light duty vehicle attributes, identified as reference, was used for all demand cases. Demand cases were defined as: High Energy Demand: Low energy prices, high income, high population Reference: Reference energy price, income, and population Low Energy Demand: High energy prices, low income and low population

ZEV Compliance Method Since ZEV regulations target the manufacturers, then the vehicle attributes were derived to meet the ZEV requirements for manufacturers. Consultants projecting vehicle attributes have been directed to generate vehicle attributes to ensure compliance with ZEV regulations, for all demand cases. Used the 2013 vehicle attribute projections. State and Federal ZEV incentives are applied in demand models with additional impact on consumer choices. Consumer Preferences are held constant.

What is Different in the Revised Forecast? There will be three scenarios for each of the following vehicle attributes: Vehicle Price Makes and Models The LDV attribute scenario differences will be driven by energy price scenario differences. More aggressive measures, as they relate to ZEV vehicle prices, to ensure better ZEV compliance in the reference case.

What is Different in the Revised Forecast? (Continued) We will create 3 PEV Demand scenarios for consumer preferences for fuel type: No change in consumer preferences over the forecast period. Low PEV demand case. Continuously improving preferences, in favor of all ZEV vehicles, as the ZEV markets expand. Reference case. Continuously improving preferences in favor of all PEV vehicles, with expanding ZEV markets, assuming zero growth in FCVs, adding its ZEV share to BEVs. This will be High PEV demand case. This is a departure from past practice. The revised reference case forecast will be constrained to meet the ZEV most likely scenario.