Transition Guide (Supporting PowerPoint) Conditional Probability

Card 1 7 balls in a tube 4 Yellow, 2 Blue, 1 Red Shake the tube and put it down so that the balls fall into the circle. You WIN if the centre ball is red. Otherwise you LOSE.

Card 2 7 balls in a tube 4 Yellow, 2 Blue, 1 Red Shake the tube and put it down so that the balls fall into the circle. You WIN if the centre ball is blue. Otherwise you LOSE.

Card 3 7 balls in a tube 4 Yellow, 2 Blue, 1 Red Shake the tube and put it down so that the balls fall into the circle. You WIN if the two blue balls touch each other. Otherwise you LOSE.

Card 4 6 balls in a tube 3 Red, 2 Blue, 1 Yellow Shake the tube and put it down so that the balls fall into the triangle. You WIN if the yellow ball is in a corner. Otherwise you LOSE.

Card 5 6 balls in a tube 3 Red, 2 Blue, 1 Yellow Shake the tube and put it down so that the balls fall into the triangle. You WIN if at least one of the blue balls is in a corner. Otherwise you LOSE.

Card 6 6 balls in a tube 3 Red, 2 Blue, 1 Yellow Shake the tube and put it down so that the balls fall into the triangle. You WIN if at least one of the red balls is in a corner. Otherwise you LOSE.

5 balls in a tube, 2 Blue, 2 Red, 1 Yellow Card 7 5 balls in a tube, 2 Blue, 2 Red, 1 Yellow Shake the tube and put it down on its side. You WIN if the centre ball is blue. Otherwise you LOSE.

Card 8 5 balls in a tube, 2 Blue, 2 Red, 1 Yellow Shake the tube and put it down so that the balls fall into the ring You WIN if the blue balls touch each other. Otherwise you LOSE.

Card 9 5 balls in a tube, 2 Blue, 2 Red, 1 Yellow Shake the tube and put it down so that the balls fall into the ring. You WIN if the blue balls touch and the red balls touch. Otherwise you LOSE.

Card 10 4 balls in a tube, 2 Blue, 2 Yellow Shake the tube and put it down so that the balls fall into the circle. You WIN if balls of the same colour are next to each other. Otherwise you LOSE

4 balls in a tube, 2 Blue, 2 Yellow Card 11 4 balls in a tube, 2 Blue, 2 Yellow Shake the tube and put it down on its side. You WIN if at least one of the two centre balls is yellow. Otherwise you LOSE

4 balls in a tube, 2 Blue, 2 Yellow Card 12 4 balls in a tube, 2 Blue, 2 Yellow Shake the tube and put it down on its side. You WIN if the colours alternate. Otherwise you LOSE

Activity Consider all 12 probability games. Which games are the most biased? Which games are fairest? Rank the games from hardest (least likely to win) to easiest (most likely to win) If it cost £1 to play, justify the types of prizes you could offer in order to ensure a reasonable profit in a charity fundraising event.