Vladimir Gel’man Aleksanteri Conference 28 October 016 Authoritarian Modernization in Russia: Ideas, Institutions, and Policies Vladimir Gel’man Aleksanteri Conference 28 October 016

Authoritarian Modernization in Russia… The book: just published by Routledge as a part of CoE-directed new book series, Studies in Contemporary Russia (four books already appeared, some are on the way); E-book is available at the library of the University of Helsinki (pdf format); Collective product of CoE cluster 2, “Authoritarian Market Society as a Challenge”; Eleven chapters contributed by both Finnish and Russian scholars (Helsinki, Jyvaskyla, EUSP, HSE)

Authoritarian Modernization in Russia… “Authoritarian modernization” – a mode of achievement of socio-economic progress (growth and development) under an authoritarian regime; “Modernization” is understood here as a “narrow” elite-driven technocratic project; Recent “success stories” – South Korea (1972-1987); Chile under Pinochet: post-Mao China, etc.; To what extent this project is feasible for present-day Russia and “Why Russia is Not South Korea” (Guriev, Zhuravskaya, 2010)? Choices in favor of this project in Russia were made every time since 1991

Authoritarian Modernization in Russia… Strong intellectual advocacy of “authoritarian modernization” from debates of the 1960s (Huntington, 1968) to present day (Popov, 2014); Arguments – reducing risks of political instability and populist policies as side effects of democratization; … but the evidence is mixed: “for every Lee Kwan Yew of Singapore, there are many like Mobutu Sese Seku of the Congo” (Rodrick, 2010), great diversity among autocracies (Przeworski et al., 2000); Post-Communist Russia is neither Singapore, nor Congo: some advancements of socio-economic developments in the 2000s, but also many shortcomings and, finally, questioning if not denial of “authoritarian modernization” project after 2014

Authoritarian Modernization in Russia… Why the evidence of “authoritarian modernization” is so mixed and uneven: (1) structure-induced legacies of the past – previous trajectory of socio-economic development, quality of bureaucracy and of the state; (2) agency-driven choices: varieties of authoritarian regimes and institutions as well as of threats to their survival; (3) agency-driven choices: ideas and perceptions of political leaders and policy-makers, which drive their policy choices

Authoritarian Modernization in Russia… … and what about Russia? (1) Structure-induced factors: relatively developed country in terms of GDP/per capita, human development, etc. – Russia was already “modernized” well before post-Soviet period; But: Poor quality of bureaucracy and of the state, partly inherited from the past and aggravated in post-Soviet period – obstacles to the rule of law; Semi-peripheral position in the global economy and relative international isolation (low linkages with the West) – obstacles to global integration;

Authoritarian Modernization in Russia… (2) agency-driven choices - electoral authoritarian regime as a consequence of failed democratization and flawed economic reforms under Gorbachev and Yeltsin; Combination of worst elements of both democracy and authoritarianism: Defects of democracy - “political business cycles”, “distributional coalitions”, “veto players” are in place; Defects of authoritarianism – lack of political competition and accountability, intentional building of inefficient institutions; Negative effects of rent-seeking and bad governance skyrocketed

Authoritarian Modernization in Russia… (3) agency driven choices: ideas – relatively negligible role vis-à-vis interests in the post-Communist world (Hanson, 2010; Hale, 2015); “good Soviet Union” – a normative ideal for current Russia’s rulers (retrospectively oriented worldviews)? Perceptions of existential threat from the West, focus on information manipulations; 2014 - a major turn from economic development to geopolitical agenda?

Authoritarian Modernization in Russia… “King’s dilemma” – economic development caused demand for political changes (2011-12 protests in Russia); “Politician’s dilemma” (Geddes, 1994) – no way for full-fledged reforms, only on a limited scale (“pockets of efficiency”); Challenge of unfulfilled promises – ambitious plans, which cannot be implemented properly; … and the challenge of mediocrity (too high self-estimations, too low performance)

Authoritarian Modernization in Russia… Controversies of post-Soviet authoritarian modernization project: Ideas: “modernization” as a technological devise for legitimation of political status quo (and ideas barely met reality); Political and economic institutions – poor protection of property rights, lack of the rule of law, special interests rules; Policies – “insulation” of government not always led to success stories: mixed record; To what extent post-Soviet achievements (at least, until 2014) were made because of authoritarian modernization project or despite to it?