Regulatory Policy Issues

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Presentation transcript:

Regulatory Policy Issues Karl McDermott Ameren Distinguished Professor University of Illinois Springfield Presented June 20, 2016

The Truth is Out There What is Really Going on in the Public Utility Sector?

Scenario Declining electric intensity Declining load growth FC vs. VC Peak Growth vs. Total Usage Increasing storms and weather events Energy Market Evolution? Rise in Real Price of Energy? Potential for Conservation? Automation and Micro-technology?

Gordon part 2

R. J. Gordon Rise and Fall of American Growth

Declining Demand Growth

Climate Cycles

Demand for and Prices of Natural Gas

Transition in World Views Old World View New World View Universal Access Safe- Reliable- Deliver those Kwh/MCF Affordable- Can buy Kwh/MCF Carbon Constrained world Electricity is going to be more expensive- affordability Access Attitudinally the role of consumption or conservation- optimize value Resilience in face of variability- the new reliable

Transition from world where we passively meet a customer driven demand to a world where we control Demand

Utility of the Future- Home as Power Plant Grid as platform-the Laminar World Who is responsible to reliability? I think it is the Disco! How to price these services? LMP on distribution grid? ISO doesn’t want to go down to distribution level? Home as power plant-Prosumer? Utility customer partnerships Utility behind the meter Callable resources Dedicated resources Emergency resources

The Home as Power Plant Investments in DG- Solar, Natural Gas, Propane, Wind Investments in Smart Appliances Investments in Energy Management Systems Investment in Battery Systems Investment in EV-V2G Investments in Home Design- Passive solar, tightening envelope

Implications for Regulation Core and Non-Core Services? Open access and Imputation? Transactive services and menu of contracts? Outcome focused Regulation Performance or Incentive Regulation Metrics for Core and Non-Core Performance Measures Degree of Transactive Services Range of Services Values Customer Receives

What Are the Questions Regulators and Industry Must Face? Is there a threat to the business as usual model of a utility? Is it disintermediation or refocused intermediation in the future? What is the role of transactive markets and how will we regulate it? Home as power plant is the next frontier for competition.