SSR2014: Basic concepts and issues in development LECTURE 7b: Population Policy

Objectives: To discuss population control measures, including population policies and redistribution of population To discuss the future issues/challenges: aging population, effects of population on the environment & migration.

Population Policies Intended to achieve a specified goal or a set of objectives by manipulating one or more variables (e.g. fertility, mortality or migration) Govt: only agency at the national level that can realistically attempt to involve every citizen in implementing policies through its command of essential resources (i.e. judiciary & media) Main instrument in bringing about desired result: fertility control

Why are population policy necessary? What is good and desirable at individual level may not be in the common interests of the community/ nation… E.g. children, families & communities Concept of carrying capacity Policy needed to prevent/ minimize social cost of large families

Some governments have taken a strong interventionist line to control population growth. E.g. Australia, Japan, Singapore While for others, pro- natalist policies have been adopted to increase population. E.g. Saudi Arabia & Israel – strongly pro-natalist – to strengthen their political power

Examples of population policies

CHINA Severe policy to limit family size (ONE child per family). Reward-based: birth of 2nd and 3rd child is strongly discouraged through a system of progressively harsh disincentives. E.g. most (if not all) of the privileges given during the birth of first child will be revoked; 3rd child is denied free education.

China’s one child policy China: Population Size 1950 2005 2015 2025 2050 554 million 1.32 billion 1.39 billion 1.44 billion China: Average annual rate of population change (%) 1995-2000 2000-2005 2010-2015 2020-2025 2045-2050 0.88 0.65 0.56 0.24 -0.35 Source: UN (2007; in Potter, 2008: 190)

INDIA Assumes that families are free to make decisions with regard to family size. Voluntary based: attempts to bring about voluntary reduction in the number of children per family through education & improved access to family planning

IMMIGRATION Also have substantially demographic & social impacts. Migration affects population in terms of structure, geographic distribution, growth rate etc. Impact on economy, culture and lifestyles. Designed to restrict the flow of immigrants into a country.

Singaporean Immigration policy Liberal towards highly specialized workforce but very restrictive towards general and/or unskilled labour. Offering different types of incentives & levies Effects on development? Knowledge and skill transfer

Population growth in LDCs

LDCs: Fertility Issues Fertility Decline in Asia: Between 1980-1995: saw a worldwide pattern of fertility reduction, and it accelerated in TWCs: E.g. TFRs fall by an average of 0.7 children per women, from 3.7 to 3.0. Southeast Asia: TFRs reduced by 22% over the decade, primarily as a result of economic development. Effective family planning method, backed by strong government support (and possibly coercion) have a major role in Asia (e.g. Vietnam and Myanmar)

LDCs: Fertility Issues Delayed Transition in Africa: Africa continues its birth explosion that begins during the last years of the colonial period. Late 1990s: reported fertility declines (e.g. Ghana, TFR=5.5; Senegal, TFR=6.0 and Zambia, TFR=6.1). 3 countries at the forefront of fertility transition: Botswana, Kenya & Zimbabwe – these countries are also pioneers in government supported family planning programs. E.g. Kenya’s TFR in 1997 was 8.0 and it was reduced to 5.4 in 1993.

Ageing population

CONCERNS: Implications of ageing population on social and economic performance. Impacts on the size of workforce and increasing cost of providing health care and insurance to older groups.

Aging Population In the next few decades, ratio of people over 64 to those of working age will increase.

Implications of Ageing Population: In the form of public pensions and health insurance: to ensure that the elderly have a living standard comparable to the working age population. This is costly! More generous the pensions, more costly it is to the nation. How to reduce/minimize: Britain’s way of offering financial incentives for workers to opt out of public pension scheme. Raising retirement age.

Future Challenges Aging population Negative growth rate Changes in social trends – singles vs married, late marriage

Consequences Effects on economy – working population Effects on environment – carrying capacity Effects on social/culture - lifestyles

Reference: Weinstein, J & Pillai, V.K (2001) Demography: The Science of Population Bosworth, B & Burtless, G (1997) Brudget Crunch: Population Aging in Rich Countries Schultz, T. P (1994) Human Capital, Family Planning & Their Effects on Population Growth Demographic Transition in Asia & its consequences