EU-MED Agpol Annual Meeting 17-20 May Montpellier TUNISIAN OLIVE OIL PRODUCT AND EXPORT POTENTIAL Expert survey (first round results) Dr. Boubaker KARRAY bkarray@yahoo.fr Montpellier 18 May 2006

Plan Evolution of the olive oil sector in Tunisia during “1991-2005”: Preoccupant Situation Methodology (SWOT and Delphi analysis): Implementation of the Expert survey Results for the first round Difficulties encountered

I O contribution in EU-MED Agpol project (WP 5) The general objective is to estimate the production and export potential for Mediterranean agricultural systems within tree and ten years using expert panels For Tunisia, the objective is to estimate the olive oil product and export potential within five and ten years using expert panels

Evolution of the olive oil sector in Tunisia during “1991-2005”: Preoccupant Situation

Actual situation “2001-05” Area : 1611.2 ha, 16% of world olive tree area (2nd position after Spain) Olive Tree number: 60 millions, 6% of world olive tree number (7th position after Spain, Italy, Greece, Turkey, Morocco and Syria) Olive oil production: 142 M tons: the 4th world producer (5%) after Spain, Italy and Greece Olive oil export: 93 M tons: the 4th world exporter (7,8%) after Spain, Italy and Greece Only 1% are bottled Principal destination: EU market 89% of total export Market share: 8,8% of EU market

Evolution since 1991 Production (M tons) 151 184 142 +/- 1991-95 1996-00 2001-05 Production (M tons) 151 184 142 +/- % of world Production 7,3 6,8 4,4* Export (M tons) 136,7 112,5 93 % of world Export 19,3 12,5 7,8* Export/Product 87 61 65,5 Export to EU (M tons) 117 97 83 % T export 86 89 + % T EU import 25 15 10 % Extra EU import 91 72 60 Market share EU 17,2 12,1 8,8

Questions 1. Main internal and external factors that govern the product and export potential of olive oil ? 2. Capacity to increase olive oil production during the next five and ten years? (WP 5) 3. Capacity to increase olive oil export during the next five and ten years? (WP 5)

Methodology (SWOT and Delphi analysis) Implementation of the Expert survey

S W O T Methodology SWOT Analysis (question1) Delphi Analysis (all questions) intern S W Expert panels (viable information) Anonymous judgment Iterative process (consensus after two rounds) extern O T

Meeting with all the experts Problem formulation Select of 23 experts First round Achieved Statistical analysis Second round New responses Statistical analysis Meeting with all the experts Final results

Composition of the expert panels of the Delphi investigation (1st round) Activity domain Number of consulted experts Number of returned questionnaires for the 1st round % Transformation 1 100 Administration (Technical service) 7 6 85.71 Research 4 3 75 Export 2 66.67 Transformation + Export 5 60 Production + Transformation + Export Certificatory organism Total 23 18 78.26

Results for the first round

Product potential 190 178 225 250 210 290 Production (2006-10) Central value Quartile1 Quartile 3 Production (2006-10) 190 178 225 Production (2011-15) 250 210 290 33.8 % for the first period 76 % for the second period

1. Extension of olive trees irrigated area 2. Extension of olive trees area in dry with revision of densities 3. Revision of densities of old plantations 4. Promotion of hyper Intensive plantations 5. Increase of plantation outputs through the application of the good agricultural practices 6. Encouragement in favour of the Tunisian variety in intensive plantations 7. Concession of a direct help to producers 8. A strategy based on the scientific arguments, with clear objectives and mobilizing the human means and adequate materials.

Partial liberalization Export potential Partial liberalization Scenario 1: Actual contingent (57165 M tons) will be 86 M tons with increase of quantity authorized in January, February and March Central value Quartile1 Quartile 3 Export not bottled (2006-10) 74 64 82 Export not bottled (2011-15) Export bottled (2006-10) Export bottled (2011-15) 76 4 8 69 2 5 80 10

Partial liberalization Export potential Partial liberalization Scenario 2: Actual contingent (57165 M tons) will be 86 M tons without increase of quantity authorized in January, February and March Central value Quartile1 Quartile 3 Export not bottled (2006-10) 71 61 82 Export not bottled (2011-15) Export bottled (2006-10) Export bottled (2011-15) 76 5 8 69 3 80 6 15

Partial liberalization Export potential Partial liberalization Scenario 3: Conservation of APT Central value Quartile1 Quartile 3 Export not bottled (2006-10) 100 85 111 Export not bottled (2011-15) 130 157 If this regime is not conserved, the decrease of export is estimated at 50% (negative effect)

Partial liberalization Export potential Partial liberalization Scenario 4: Reduction of NPF tariff in normal regime: 20% Central value Quartile1 Quartile 3 Export not bottled (2006-10) 10 55 Export not bottled (2011-15) Export bottled (2006-10) Export bottled (2011-15) 13 2 5 63 8

Preference of partial liberalization 1. Increase of the contingent with increase of the monthly quantities in January, February and March. 2. Increase of the contingent without modification of its monthly distribution 3. Reduction of tariff in normal regime (20%) 4. Conservation of the Active Perfection Traffic regime (TPA)

Export potential Total liberalization Central value Quartile1 Quartile 3 Export not bottled (2006-10) 148 100 166 Export not bottled (2011-15) Export bottled (2006-10) Export bottled (2011-15) 191 5 15 169 4 7 212 10 18

Difficulties encountered I would like to thank all the national experts which participate in this investigation questionnaire. The main met difficulty is the unavailability of some experts. They required more time to finish the first round. The character exceptional of the olive growing campaign 2005-2006 was to the origin (increase of the olive price, uncertainty concerning the olive oil foreign market, export price).

Thank you for your attention