The NOAA Climate Program: Research and Climate Services Chet Koblinsky Director of the NOAA Climate Program, and Acting Director of the Office of Global Programs Climate Prediction Assessments and Services Workshop, March 9-11, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida 6/2/2018

NOAA Climate Program Ten years ago NOAA’s climate services were primarily focused on the dissemination of coarsely resolved national seasonal forecasts. Over the last ten years NOAA has, in close collaboration with decision-makers, conducted research that has enhanced the relevance, value, and accuracy of its data and forecasting tools. Where should NOAA be in 10-20 years in regard to climate services for climate variability, climate change? Need to develop a vision and roadmap for the future. 6/2/2018

NOAA Climate Program The current program stems from NOAA’s commitment to develop a cohesive system that links research, operational climate services, and decision-makers needs. 6/2/2018

NOAA Climate Program Vision NOAA’ s MISSION To understand and predict changes in the Earth’s environment and conserve and manage coastal and marine resources to meet our Nation’s economic, social, and environmental needs. BENEFITS TO THE NATION Consistent with its results-oriented approach to strategic planning, NOAA is committed to maximizing the benefits of its products and services to our Nation’s: •Environment •Public Safety •Economy 6/2/2018

NOAA Climate Program Mission Goal 2 - Climate Climate is one of the four strategic themes within NOAA. “Understand climate variability and change to enhance society’s ability to plan and respond” Climate Services (NAS): The timely production and delivery of useful climate data, information, and knowledge to decision makers. Anticipated Outcomes (Build an end-to-end system) Increased use and effectiveness of observations and climate information – show the benefit of the observations, provide feedback on what works, what doesn’t work, and what needs to be changed and how. 6/2/2018

NOAA Climate Program Research to Delivery Information Gathering and Dissemination Research Operations/ Decision-makers NOAA Climate Transition Program 6/2/2018

NOAA Climate Program Organizational Ideas Climate Board Matrix Link Interagency Climate Office External Advisory Groups NOAA Climate Program Office NMFS RISAs, IRI, Extension NWS NCEP CSD Regions OGP, COSP Sea Grant CDC, GFDL OAR NOS CSC, OCRM, CWISE NESDIS RCCs CWISE NGDC NCDC NODC CPC OCWWS Regional Manager WFOs/ RFCs EMC 6/2/2018

NOAA Climate Program Elements 1. Climate Observations and Analysis (T. Karl - NESDIS) 50% Observations Data Stewardship Understanding Climate Variability and Change 2. Climate Forcing (D. Albritton - OAR) 20% Global Carbon Cycle Atmospheric Composition 3. Climate Predictions and Projections (A. Leetmaa - OAR) 25% Climate Prediction Climate Change Projections Reducing Model Uncertainty 4. Climate and Ecosystems (N. Cyr - NMFS) 1% 5: Regional Decision Support (R. Livezey NWS, C. Nierenberg - OAR) 4% 6/2/2018

NOAA Climate Program Goal 5 Regional Decision Support: A mature and efficient system for understanding and responding to stakeholder needs for products and services. Outcome – Enhance NOAA’s operational decision support tools to provide climate services for national socio-economic benefits Performance Measure – Provide NWS forecasters scientific training to understand and use NOAA climate forecasts and other climate products, and adapt these products for regional delivery. 6/2/2018

NOAA Climate Program Milestones for Goal 5 Exploratory workshops to identify climate sensitive issues at regional scales. Regional forums to identify research priorities and transfer to operations Develop prototype methods for application of climate information to practical management Transition research products to operations Social science-based studies for context and use of climate information 6/2/2018

NOAA Climate Program Examples Operational wildfire forecasting a federal and state partnership with NOAA. Climate implications for estuarine rehabilitation, the CALFED example. NWS partnerships with FEMA to improve disaster management in Montana. Climate based risk management NOAA-USDA research-extension partnership. 6/2/2018

NOAA Climate Program Where should NOAA be in 10-20 years in regard to climate services for climate variability, climate change? 6/2/2018

BACKUP 6/2/2018

PLACE-BASED RESEARCH AND DECISION SUPPORT Development of Decision Resources (across scales & communities) Increase Response Options Expanded Regional Adaptive Capacity Identification of key Knowledge gaps Policy Contexts and Decision-making Processes Scientific Resources And Knowledge Problem Identification And Formulation Characterizing & Communicating Outcomes PLACE-BASED RESEARCH AND DECISION SUPPORT WATER RESOURCES ENERGY AGRICULTURE HUMAN HEALTH FISHERIES TRANSPORTATION FORESTS ECOSYSTEMS COASTAL ZONE AIR QUALITY Extreme events Recreation Estuarine restoration Ecosystem sciences Ecosystems restoration Endangered species Mississippi Great Lakes shipping (variable water volume) Extreme events & infrastructure public safety (insurance) Fisheries populations Production Health EPA air quality regulation Vector borne diseases Asthma Energy demand Conditions for wind & solar Risk management Yield, supply, price expectation Trade implications Wildfire management Reforestation options Controlled burning Flood Control Water quality Consumption 6/2/2018