World Bank Office, Vienna, May 2016 Climate Modelling for Bosnia and Herzegovina and its Applications (Case Study: GEF Project Titled "Adaptation to Climate Changes Along the Vrbas River Watershed“) World Bank Office, Vienna, May 2016

Floods in Western Balkans, May 2014

Floods in BiH, May 2014

Floods in BiH, May 2014

Introduction Changes in extreme daily precipitation according to different scenarios of climate changes On the territory of Bosnia and Herzegovina can be expected climate changes in the future, especially in the case of climate scenarios that do not provide for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions

Increase in temperature (2,4-4 °C) Even if in the future the achievement of an international plan of reduction of emissions to levels that will provide a stop the increase in global mean temperature to a value of 1.5 °C we can expect further change in climatic conditions Medium anomaly for mean global temperature is 0,85 °C in relative to pre-industrial period Increase in temperature (2,4-4 °C) Extreme precipitations

Horizontal Resolution Climate Models Regional Model Horizontal Resolution Scenario Reference Period Future Period Global Model NMMB 8 km RCP8.5 1971-2000 2011-2100 CMCC-CM EBU-POM 25 km A1B ECHAM5 A2

NMMB model Regionalization of climate scenario RCP8.5 (Moss et al., 2008) which is defined by IPCC Five Assesment Report (IPCC – AR5) Horizontal resolution of model NMMB is 8 km Reference period: 1970-2000 Integration of future climate cover period 2011-2100 For limiting condition in integration RCP8.5 scenario, we used results of global climate model CMCC-CM (Scoccimarro et al. 2011)

EBU-POM model EBU-POM model – regionalization of A1B i A2 scenarios (Nakicenovic and Swart, 2000) which is defined by IPCC Forth Assesment Report (IPCC – AR4) Horizontal resolution of EBU-POM model is 25 km For limiting condition in integration scenarios A1B i A2, we used results of global climate model ECHAM5 (Roeckner et al. 2003). Regional climate model EBU-POM is total related atmosperic-ocean model (Djurdjevic and Rajkovic, 2008; Djurdjevic and Rajkovic, 2010). Atmospheric component is Eta model; ocean component is Prinstons ocean model (POM)

Climate modeling in GEF project “Adaptation to Climate Changes Along the Vrbas River Watershed” GEF project – climate modelling according to regional model NMMB for scenario RCP 8.5 (AR5, IPCC) Scenario RCP8.5 has high horizontal resolution (8 km) and time (6 h) For limiting condition in integration RCP8.5 scenario, we used results of global climate model CMCC-CM Reference period: 1970-2000; integration of future climate cover period 2011-2100 For integration of NMMB model we used ORIENTGATE project database

Accumulated precipitations (month, season or year) mm RR20 Index Definition Unit   RR Accumulated precipitations (month, season or year) mm RR20 Nuber of days with daily precipitations higher than 20 mm dan RR20t Total accumulated precipitations in days with daily precipitations higher than 20 mm TG Mean temperature (month, season or year) °C TX30 Nuber of days with daily temperature higher than 30 °C Day TTX30 Daily mean temperature in days with temperature higher than 30 °C R5D60 Number of episodes with five-days accumulated precipitations higher than 60 mm Number of episodes R5D60t Total accumulated precipitations during episodes with five-days accumulated precipitations higher than 60 mm SNO Medium hight of accumulated snow m SNOD Number of days with snow cover

Scenario RCP8.5 2011-2040 (Year)

Scenario RCP8.5 2041-2070 (Year)

Scenario RCP8.5 2071-2100. (Year)

Scenario RCP8.5 2011-2040 (MAM)

Scenario RCP8.5 2011-2040 (JJA)

Scenario RCP8.5 2011-2041 (Year) RR20

Scenario RCP8.5 2011-2041 (MAM) RR20

Scenario RCP8.5 2011-2041 (JJA) RR20

Changes in number of episodes with accumulated percipitations (R5D60)

Expected temperature changes – period 2011-2040 (Year)

Expected temperature changes – period 2011-2040 (JJA)

Expected temperature changes – period 2011-2040 (DJF)

Changes in number of tropical days (30 ◦C)

Changes in medium hight of accumulated snow

Changes in number of days with snow cover

Future of climate modelling BiH Important to continue with researching Create models according to IPCC methodology Create models for Bosna River and Drina River watersheds Permanently do climate forecasts According to climate forecasts improve adaptation to climate change

Thank you for your attention!