What was the Legacy of Thatcherism for the Criminal Justice System in England & Wales? Stephen Farrall (Centre for Criminological Research, Sheffield Univ). April 2017, Pint of Science, Sheffield.

Who was Margaret Thatcher? Leader of the Conservative Party 1975-90. PM of the UK 1979-90. Either “the saviour of the nation” OR “the Devil incarnate” depending on your political beliefs!

Which policies are we most interested in? Economic policies Housing policies Social security (esp. after 1986) Education policies (esp. after 1988)

Figure 1: Unemployment Rate (%), 1970-2006 Thatcher’s period in office Major’s period in office

Economic Changes This in turn led to increases in levels of inequality (Figure 2), augmented by changes in taxation policies which favoured the better off.

Figure 2: Income Inequality (Gini coefficient), 1970-2006 Thatcher’s period in office Major’s period in office

The Economy and Crime in Post-War Britain We find statistically significant relationships for: 1: the unemployment rate on the rate of property crime (more unemployment = more property crime), 2: we also find that the crime-economy link strengthened during this period. 3: (economic inequality just outside bounds of significance).

Housing Policy 1980 Housing Act (+ others): created RTB – saw a huge rise in owner-occupation. Created residualisation of council housing; transient/marginalised residents with low levels of employment. Contributed to concentration of social and economic need ... … and then to the concentration of crime.

Social Security 1980-1985: Some tinkering with the DHSS. 1986 Social Security Act based on Fowler Review (1984). Following this payments reduced for many individual benefits claimants (whilst total spend increased due to unemployment). We find that increases in welfare spending are associated with declines in the property crime rate. (More spending = less crime).

Education ‘Choice’ agenda encouraged schools to exclude poorly performing children to improve league table position. Exclusions rose, reaching a peak of 12,668 in 1996-97. Increased Anti-Social Behaviour (HO RDS Occ. Paper 71). Brit. Crime Survey shows a sudden increase in people reporting “teens hanging around” to be a problem from an average of 8% before 2001 to 30% after 2002. School exclusions helped to create Labour’s discourse of ASB and need for C&DA 1998.

What happened to crime (etc)? Rise in crime (Fig 3). This was generally rising before 1979, but the rate of increase picked up after early 1980s and again in early 1990s. Fear of crime rises (Fig 4). Levels of punitive sentiment rise (Fig 5). Changes in priorities for Govt. spending (Fig 6).

Figure 3: Property Crime Per Capita (Home Office Recorded Statistics and BCS) Thatcher’s period in office Major’s period in office

Figure 4: Percentage worried about crime (BCS 1982-2005) Thatcher’s period in office Major’s period in office

Major’s period in office Fig 5: Punitive opinion* (excluding the death penalty) and recorded crime in England and Wales, 1980-2013 Thatcher’s period in office Major’s period in office *Based on eight CSE&W and BSAS items relating to sentencing, CJS doing a good job, obeying the law (but excluding those relating to the death penalty).

Figure 6: Shifting Social Attitudes (BSAS)

Developments post-1993 Michael Howard (Home Sec 1993-97) talks and acts tough. Prison population rises immediately; rise in average sentence lengths. Due also to stricter enforcement and mandatory minimum sentences (aimed at burglars and drug traffickers). Prison population grew by 2.5% p.a. from 1945 to 1995, but by 3.8% p.a. 1995-2009 (MoJ, 2009: 4).

Average Prison Popn (Key years): Numbers of Prisoners Average Prison Popn (Key years): 1970: 39028 1979: 42220 1993: 44552 1994: 48621 2013: 84249

More ways of being punitive Thatcher’s CJS Legacy Empty! More ways of being punitive

Our Modelling … … suggests that the rate of incarceration has a negative impact on the property crime rate. (More prison = less crime). BUT Improving economy also played a part.

Labour Party’s Response Move to the political right. ‘Tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime’. Focus on ‘young offenders’ (related to School Exclusions/ and >ASB?). Did not oppose Crime (Sentences) Act 1997 despite it being quite draconian (‘3 strikes’, minimum mandatory sentences).

Conclusion Thatcherism was a mix of both neo-liberal and neo-conservative instincts. Changes which were driven by neo-liberal instincts (housing, employment, social security and education) led to rises in crime. Rises in crime increased punitiveness amongst public/politicians (and with a neo-conservative mind-set this meant ‘tougher’ prison sentences).

Conclusion Crime rise in 1980s-1990s; changes in public sentiments about crime in 1990s and early 2000s; and a ‘toughened’ CJS. The creation of a new ‘consensus’ on crime. Needed shift in Labour’s stance on crime for this to ossify.

Keeping in Touch EMAIL NEWSLETTER: (s.farrall@sheffield.ac.uk) WEBPAGE: http://www.sheffield.ac.uk/law/research/projects/crimetrajectories (Links to papers, talks, documentary film we’ve made, future activities) EMAIL NEWSLETTER: (s.farrall@sheffield.ac.uk) TWITTER: @Thatcher_Legacy