Homelessness Projections Rhagamcanion digartrefedd Ending homelessness: what should we change next? Rhoi diwedd ar ddigartrefedd: beth ddylai newid nesaf?

Homelessness projections Commissioned Heriot Watt University to undertake research on current and future levels of homelessness across GB Work in progress – presenting England results so far and repeating exercise for Wales and Scotland. Keen to get input on data sources Answering three broad research questions: What is current level of homelessness within different categories? What is likely to happen to homelessness levels under existing policies and trends? What measures would have the greatest impact in reducing homelessness, in the face of varying future conditions? Under representation of certain groups and housing circumstances – we are able to measure people who go through the statutory system but it is very difficult to quantify people who fall outside of this system Linked to the session this afternoon we need to have a baseline of how homelessness currently stands so we can measure progress against ending it – but this needs to capture those people who are not always captured through official sources

Core and wider homelessness Definition of core homelessness: Rough Sleeping Sleeping in tents, cars, public transport Squatting (unlicensed, insecure) Unsuitable non-residential accommodation e.g. ‘beds in sheds’ Hostel residents Users of night/winter shelters DV victim in Refuge Unsuitable temporary accommodation ‘Sofa Surfing’ – staying with others (not close family), on short term/insecure basis/wishing to leave, in crowded conditions (excl students) Under representation of certain groups and housing circumstances – we are able to measure people who go through the statutory system but it is very difficult to quantify people who fall outside of this system

Core and wider homelessness Definition of wider homelessness: Staying with friends/relatives because unable to find own accommodation (longer term) Eviction /under notice to quit (and unable to afford rent/deposit) Asked to leave by parents/relatives Intermediate accommodation and receiving support In other temporary accommodation (e.g. conventional social housing, caravan, holiday let) Discharge from prison/hospital without housing/resources Under representation of certain groups and housing circumstances – we are able to measure people who go through the statutory system but it is very difficult to quantify people who fall outside of this system

Baseline England –core homelessness Core homelessness stood at 144,000 households in 2015 It increased by nearly half since 2010 The largest elements were sofa-surfing, hostels and unsuitable TA All elements except hostels were growing Fastest growing element was unsuitable TA About a third are families so population involved > 200,000 Most figures subject to uncertainty, but more likely to be under-estimated

Draft England projections –core homelessness Types of homelessness Core homelessness stood at 144,000 households in 2015 It increased by nearly half since 2010 The largest elements were sofa-surfing, hostels and unsuitable TA All elements except hostels were growing Fastest growing element was unsuitable TA About a third are families so population involved > 200,000 Most figures subject to uncertainty, but more likely to be under-estimated Regional patterns

Draft England projections –core homelessness A work in progress but early results in England show: The most important driver of homelessness in all its forms is poverty, which features strongly in all of the statistical models The availability and affordability of different forms of potentially accessible housing, whether social rented lettings or suitable forms of TA, are important The use of unsuitable forms of TA is a sensitive barometer of local pressure and is reflected in the different forms of homelessness including rough sleeping and sofa-surfing. The extent to which a local authority employs the full range of prevention measures has a strong influence on homeless acceptances and thereby on the extent of use of TA, including its unsuitable forms Homelessness monitor series shows policy decisions have driven homelessness patterns - likely to be reflected in Wales and Scotland results Core homelessness stood at 144,000 households in 2015 It increased by nearly half since 2010 The largest elements were sofa-surfing, hostels and unsuitable TA All elements except hostels were growing Fastest growing element was unsuitable TA About a third are families so population involved > 200,000 Most figures subject to uncertainty, but more likely to be under-estimated

Next steps Developing results for Wales and Scotland – baseline data and simulating a model to show projected levels of homelessness Main driver of the research is to support the plan to end homelessness and provide a baseline to measure progress over time Opportunity to collect more data in Wales and upcoming homelessness monitor published in July adds to this evidence base Keen to get input into the definitions, data sources and research – please feedback National policy consultation starting in June – sign up on our website https://www.crisis.org.uk/ending-homelessness/a-plan-to-end-homelessness/

Or please find me at the conference! Francesca.Albanese@crisis.org.uk Or please find me at the conference!