THE RISE OF CHINA - Power, Institutions and the Western Order - International Relations of East Asia 2009104526 Song Mi Ran 2010008324 Stefan Muhl

CONTENTS What is power transition 2. Example: British hegemony & power transition ⅰ. Germany - Britain ⅱ. USA – Britain 3. The institutionalization of hegemony 4. Example: The integration of Germany and Japan What shapes the pathway of the Chinese power transition Conclusion

WHAT IS POWER TRANSITION the international order is a hierarchical political system the hierarchical system maintains as long as the leading state remains powerful enough to enforce the rules of order when rapid shifts in power occur the world order becomes instable for this period until a new hierarchical system will be established What is power transition? How can a power transition occur? by peaceful transition by war among great powers

IMPORTANT VARIABLES OF THE POWER TRANSITION

BRITISH HEGEMONY & POWER TRANSITION Germany – Britain USA - Britain geopolitical proximity both countries were heavily involved in the European rivalry USA were “offshore” / away from other great powers competition strong competition in naval forces, colonies and allies increasing economical competition support of the status quo Germany required more influence and significance the United States supported the status quo international order mutual interests relatively strong economical interdependence between both countries US were a huge market for British capital, both were interested in a balance of power at the European continent

THE INSTITUTIONALIZATION OF HEGEMONY In the post-1945 era, the US built its hegemonic order around institutionalized relationships → made American power position less threatening to other states This order is a wider, deeper, and more formidable order than ever before → hard for rising states including China to overturn this order

WHAT MAKES AMERICAN POWER MORE STABLE & LESS THREATENING America’s mature political institutions Open and decentralized political process The web of institutions the UN, IMF, World Bank,…

REINTEGRATION OF GERMANY & JAPAN process of German integration & reunification in the context of western institutions Peaceful growth of power Japan The United States - Japan alliance & working in the western order through OECD, G7 process,…

THE WESTERN ORDER AND POWER TRANSITION The institutions in which the U.S. is positioned → reassure other states that American power will not be exercised in an arbitrary and indiscriminate way Other democratic states rising up without security competition within the order The Western order operation influences the strategies of other great powers situated outside the order ex) The Soviet Union

WHAT SHAPES THE PATHWAY OF THE CHINESE POWER TRANSITION Economic interests - world’s economic bodies, the world’s economic governance bodies 2. Security interests - “special relationship” with the U.S. Its underlying interests some features which mitigate these dangers - institutions, alliances, nuclear weapons Security dilemmas dynamics

WHAT SHAPES THE PATHWAY OF THE CHINESE POWER TRANSITION The time at which China matches the wider Western world in terms of economic, military capacity will not come soon Power distribution between China & the West

CONCLUSION The Western order – larger than a status quo great power (the U.S.), globalized, deeply institutionalized → easier to join and harder to overturn compared with past orders Low possibility of overturning the existing order by China, considering China’s current (future) interests and the low probability of matching the western world immediately

DISCUSSION Will a rising China accommodate to the order or overturn it? Could we be sure that China would benefit from the existing Western order constantly? How long will it last?