Why high-quality lifelong learning matters: labour market developments in Poland Thanks for the invitation. Congratulations on election and membership of European Parliament Employment and social affairs committee. Quality of training in Malpolska conference Krakow, 20 October 2016 Steve Bainbridge 1

Despite economic growth employment in Poland is forecast to fall slightly by 2025 – why? Past and forecast employment, Poland (millions) High quality vocational education and training (VET) relevant to labour market needs is a policy priority for the EU. Europe’s unemployment level, particularly, among young people worryingly high. Skills, qualifications and employability are central to Europe’s economic recovery. But the vocational education and training that delivers the skills, qualifications and employability needed faces growing challenges. How do we combine a highly educated labour force with adequate job creation? How do we increase participation in a shrinking and ageing labour force? How can training help address inequality and develop the green economy? Cedefop European agency devoted to VET is working on these and other questions Source: Cedefop skills forecasts (2015) 2 2

Poland’s ageing workforce Changes in working-age population and labour force by age, 2013-25, Poland, (%) High quality vocational education and training (VET) relevant to labour market needs is a policy priority for the EU. Europe’s unemployment level, particularly, among young people worryingly high. Skills, qualifications and employability are central to Europe’s economic recovery. But the vocational education and training that delivers the skills, qualifications and employability needed faces growing challenges. How do we combine a highly educated labour force with adequate job creation? How do we increase participation in a shrinking and ageing labour force? How can training help address inequality and develop the green economy? Cedefop European agency devoted to VET is working on these and other questions Source: Cedefop skills forecasts (2015) 3 3

Impact of an ageing workforce in Poland 2013-25 Labour force participation (15-64 year olds in or seeking work) Remains around 52%; EU average 55.5% Job opportunities Arise from the need to replace people moving to another job or leaving the labour market (retirement) High quality vocational education and training (VET) relevant to labour market needs is a policy priority for the EU. Europe’s unemployment level, particularly, among young people worryingly high. Skills, qualifications and employability are central to Europe’s economic recovery. But the vocational education and training that delivers the skills, qualifications and employability needed faces growing challenges. How do we combine a highly educated labour force with adequate job creation? How do we increase participation in a shrinking and ageing labour force? How can training help address inequality and develop the green economy? Cedefop European agency devoted to VET is working on these and other questions 4 4

Most job opportunities Not just numbers but types of jobs are changing in Poland 2013-25 –why? Most future job growth in distribution and transport, construction and business and other services Most job opportunities 34% for professionals (high level occupations in science, engineering healthcare, business and teaching), 15% for service and sales workers Will require high-level qualifications, but due to replacement demand many will require medium-level qualifications High quality vocational education and training (VET) relevant to labour market needs is a policy priority for the EU. Europe’s unemployment level, particularly, among young people worryingly high. Skills, qualifications and employability are central to Europe’s economic recovery. But the vocational education and training that delivers the skills, qualifications and employability needed faces growing challenges. How do we combine a highly educated labour force with adequate job creation? How do we increase participation in a shrinking and ageing labour force? How can training help address inequality and develop the green economy? Cedefop European agency devoted to VET is working on these and other questions 5 5

Impact of technology on jobs Job substitution All jobs are vulnerable; 47% replaced by automation in 20 years ‘March of the machine makes idle hands’ New York Times, 1928 Job creation Amount of work is not fixed; 65% of children entering primary school today will work in jobs that do not exist; cars created jobs in tourism Job transformation/complementarity Falling costs, rising employment; ‘Computers are stupid they only know answers’ – Picasso High quality vocational education and training (VET) relevant to labour market needs is a policy priority for the EU. Europe’s unemployment level, particularly, among young people worryingly high. Skills, qualifications and employability are central to Europe’s economic recovery. But the vocational education and training that delivers the skills, qualifications and employability needed faces growing challenges. How do we combine a highly educated labour force with adequate job creation? How do we increase participation in a shrinking and ageing labour force? How can training help address inequality and develop the green economy? Cedefop European agency devoted to VET is working on these and other questions 6 6

Education and training for the future An older workforce needs to be skilled and adaptable 53% of adult employees in the EU need to learn new things continuously 70 million Europeans with low levels of literacy and numeracy Address skill mismatch 26% of EU adult employees have significant skill deficits 29% of graduates overqualified for their job High quality vocational education and training (VET) relevant to labour market needs is a policy priority for the EU. Europe’s unemployment level, particularly, among young people worryingly high. Skills, qualifications and employability are central to Europe’s economic recovery. But the vocational education and training that delivers the skills, qualifications and employability needed faces growing challenges. How do we combine a highly educated labour force with adequate job creation? How do we increase participation in a shrinking and ageing labour force? How can training help address inequality and develop the green economy? Cedefop European agency devoted to VET is working on these and other questions 7 7

Is Poland prepared? Strong on initial training Early leavers from education and training (2013) EU 11.9%; Poland 5.6% 30-34 year old with tertiary attainment (2013) EU 36.8%; Poland 40.5% STEM graduates from upper-secondary initial training (2012) EU 29.2%; Poland 39.4% High quality vocational education and training (VET) relevant to labour market needs is a policy priority for the EU. Europe’s unemployment level, particularly, among young people worryingly high. Skills, qualifications and employability are central to Europe’s economic recovery. But the vocational education and training that delivers the skills, qualifications and employability needed faces growing challenges. How do we combine a highly educated labour force with adequate job creation? How do we increase participation in a shrinking and ageing labour force? How can training help address inequality and develop the green economy? Cedefop European agency devoted to VET is working on these and other questions 8 8

Is Poland prepared? Weak on lifelong learning Adults in lifelong learning (2013) EU 10.5%; Poland 4.3% Older adults in lifelong learning (2013) EU 6.6%; Poland 1.1% Unemployed adults in lifelong learning (2013) EU 10%; Poland 4.1% Employees participating in on-the-job-training (2010) EU 20%; Poland 11% Job-related non-formal education and training (2010) EU 80.2%; Poland 85.2% High quality vocational education and training (VET) relevant to labour market needs is a policy priority for the EU. Europe’s unemployment level, particularly, among young people worryingly high. Skills, qualifications and employability are central to Europe’s economic recovery. But the vocational education and training that delivers the skills, qualifications and employability needed faces growing challenges. How do we combine a highly educated labour force with adequate job creation? How do we increase participation in a shrinking and ageing labour force? How can training help address inequality and develop the green economy? Cedefop European agency devoted to VET is working on these and other questions 9 9

Responding to demography and technology: Rebalancing education and training – Skills Agenda Extend work-based learning: smoother job transition, new skills 22% of enterprises in Poland provide training; EU 66% Validation: 85.2% of adults participate in non-formal job related learning – make it visible! European and national qualifications frameworks: general and vocational qualifications based on learning outcome standards Better labour market intelligence: EU Skills Panorama EU, national and sectoral skill forecasts; skill mismatch analyses High quality vocational education and training (VET) relevant to labour market needs is a policy priority for the EU. Europe’s unemployment level, particularly, among young people worryingly high. Skills, qualifications and employability are central to Europe’s economic recovery. But the vocational education and training that delivers the skills, qualifications and employability needed faces growing challenges. How do we combine a highly educated labour force with adequate job creation? How do we increase participation in a shrinking and ageing labour force? How can training help address inequality and develop the green economy? Cedefop European agency devoted to VET is working on these and other questions 10 10

Information online or sent to you: ask us Look for at cedefop.europa.eu In addition to the analyses that I have outlined, Cedefop provides other information on training that is available for this committee to use. Everything is available on our website. But if there is any information we can provide for you please ask.