Impact of Fertilizer Prices on the Cow/Calf Enterprise

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Presentation transcript:

Impact of Fertilizer Prices on the Cow/Calf Enterprise Spring 2008 Bob Woods Area Extension Agronomy Specialist

Fertilizer Prices 03/25/08 Nitrogen (N) - 51¢ Phosphorus (P2O5) - 89¢ Potassium (K2O) - 50¢ 11/12/07 44¢ 34¢ 25¢ 11/14/06 34¢ 22¢

Forage Requirement for a Spring Calving herd under 4 different management options This shows that a cow unit might require between 14,000 and 17,000 pounds of dry matter per year. The smaller amount is for a 1000 cow, including 20% of the heifers retained as replacements and that cows share of the bull power. The 17,000 is for the same system but retaining the steers through the stocker phase. This suggests that it would be possible to maintain a stocking rate of 1 cow unit per 1.4 to 1.7 acres. And do that in the dry years. OSU Publication E-926

Nitrogen Fertilizer needed by different Management Schemes Using Introduced Forages A/Cow Unit 10 – 14 5 4 3 2 1.5 Forage needed Tons/A .6 1.2 – 1.6 1.5 – 2 2 – 2.7 3 – 4 4 – 5.3 N req. Lbs/A 30 – 50 50 – 70 70 – 105 120 – 170 170 - 235 N req. Lbs/cow 150 – 250 200 – 280 210 – 315 240 – 340 255 - 353 A reasonably safe level is 3 acres per cow unit if relying entirely on introduced forages. This could be accomplished on as little as 105 pounds of nitrogen per acre and well within the capability of some exceptionally dry years. Reasonably Safe

Forage Expense in Relation to S.R. A/Cow Forage T/A N Req Lbs/A NPK Total $ / Cow Forage Expense Total $ / Cow Value of Gain per Acre less forage $ 10 .6 .00 190 39 5 1.2 30 207 380 40 4 1.5 50 353 57 3 2 70 264 389 64 2 Tons litter 240 355 76 120 227 323 130 Based on March 2008 fertilizer and calf prices. 1000 pound cow. 450 pounds sold per cow. Custom hay harvest and 60 day hay supply. 40 pounds P and K/A. For 3A and greater only ½ of the acres are fertilized and the N rate/a is doubled to gain efficiency. N = 51¢, P = 81¢, K = 50¢. 450 pounds of calf sales per cow unit at an average price of $1.20/lb. and 100 pounds of cull cow sales at $42 for $582 dollars gross income per cow. 40 pounds of p and k per acre. Custom harvest 2 round bales per cow, $40 per cow. Rent $15/A native and $25 per acre bermudagrass. Litter $30/ton 2ton per acre on the whole acreage. Cow calf enterprise selling all calves at weaning and <1100 pound cow. To understand this table – At 10 acres per cow – you would expect to have $400 cover the remaining cow expenses not included in forage costs? At 2 acres per cow, you expect to have $334 per cow remaining after forage costs to cover the remaining expenses. Will the added number of cows offset the increased cost per cow? Achieving these stocking rates on the amount of nitrogen listed would require above average forage management that would include some limited access or rotational stocking (more than 1 or 2 pastures and closing gates). The fertilizer rates are based on amounts listed in the Forage Budgeting Fact Sheet #2584. N 51¢, P 89¢, K 50¢, $40 Hay/cow, $15 native rent, $25 introduced rent Litter $40/T

Forage Expense in Relation to S.R. A/Cow Forage T/A 2007 Forage Expense/ Cow 2008 Forage Expense/ Cow 10 .6 147 190 5 1.2 250 372 4 1.5 244 347 3 2 249 379 223 317 Based on Nov. 2007 fertilizer and calf prices. 1000 pound cow and bulls. 450 pounds sold per cow. Custom hay harvest and 60 day hay supply. 40 pounds P and K/A. For 3A and greater only ½ of the acres are fertilized and the N rate/a is doubled to gain efficiency. N = 51¢, P = 81¢, K = 50¢. 450 pounds of calf sales per cow unit at an average price of $1.20/lb. and 100 pounds of cull cow sales at $42 for $582 dollars gross income per cow. 40 pounds of p and k per acre. Custom harvest 2 round bales per cow, $40 per cow. Rent $15/A native and $25 per acre bermudagrass. Litter $30/ton 2ton per acre on the whole acreage. Cow calf enterprise selling all calves at weaning and <1100 pound cow. To understand this table – At 10 acres per cow – you would expect to have $400 cover the remaining cow expenses not included in forage costs? At 2 acres per cow, you expect to have $334 per cow remaining after forage costs to cover the remaining expenses. Will the added number of cows offset the increased cost per cow? Achieving these stocking rates on the amount of nitrogen listed would require above average forage management that would include some limited access or rotational stocking (more than 1 or 2 pastures and closing gates). The fertilizer rates are based on amounts listed in the Forage Budgeting Fact Sheet #2584.

Forage Expense in Relation to S.R. A/Cow Forage T/A 2007 Value of Gain per Acre 2008 Value of Gain per Acre 10 .6 37 39 5 1.2 54 40 4 1.5 70 57 3 2 91 64 149 130 Based on Nov. 2007 fertilizer and calf prices. 1000 pound cow and bulls. 450 pounds sold per cow. Custom hay harvest and 60 day hay supply. 40 pounds P and K/A. For 3A and greater only ½ of the acres are fertilized and the N rate/a is doubled to gain efficiency. N = 51¢, P = 81¢, K = 50¢. 450 pounds of calf sales per cow unit at an average price of $1.20/lb. and 100 pounds of cull cow sales at $42 for $582 dollars gross income per cow. 40 pounds of p and k per acre. Custom harvest 2 round bales per cow, $40 per cow. Rent $15/A native and $25 per acre bermudagrass. Litter $30/ton 2ton per acre on the whole acreage. Cow calf enterprise selling all calves at weaning and <1100 pound cow. To understand this table – At 10 acres per cow – you would expect to have $400 cover the remaining cow expenses not included in forage costs? At 2 acres per cow, you expect to have $334 per cow remaining after forage costs to cover the remaining expenses. Will the added number of cows offset the increased cost per cow? Achieving these stocking rates on the amount of nitrogen listed would require above average forage management that would include some limited access or rotational stocking (more than 1 or 2 pastures and closing gates). The fertilizer rates are based on amounts listed in the Forage Budgeting Fact Sheet #2584.

Implication Little difference in income potential between low input and high input intensive grazing How many cows do you really need? Class I and II soils could be cropped.

Nutrients Removed By Forage Crops Species and Hay Yield N P2O5 K2O Bermudagrass 6 tons 258 60 288 Tall Fescue 3.5 tons 135 65 185 Sorghum/Sudan 4 tons 160 61 233 Southern Forages

Crude Protein Effect on Nitrogen Removal Crude protein/6.24 = % nitrogen 5% C. P. = .8% N = 16 lbs./T 10% C.P. = 1.6% N = 32 lbs./T 15% C.P. = 2.4% N = 48 lbs./T 20% C.P. = 3.2% N = 64 lbs./T

Nutrients Removed per Ton of Bermudagrass Hay 2006 Crude Protein 5% 10% 15% N $/T 3.20 6.40 9.60 P and K $/T 9.90 Total NPK $/T 13.10 16.30 19.50

Nutrients Removed per Ton of Bermudagrass Hay 2008 Crude Protein 5% 10% 15% N $/T 8.16 16.32 24.48 P and K $/T 32.10 Total NPK $/T 40.10 48.42 56.58 $/1200 lb. Rd. Bale 24.06 29.05 33.95

Hay supply goes down if fewer growers fertilize Implication Hay prices should go up Hay supply goes down if fewer growers fertilize

Poultry Litter and Fertilizer Value 03/25/08 Nitrogen (N) - 51¢ Phosphorus (P2O5) - 89¢ Potassium (K2O) - 50¢ 11/12/07 44¢ 34¢ 25¢ 11/14/06 34¢ 22¢

Average Litter Composition and Value Dry Matter Water Total N NO3-N NH4-N P2O5 K2O Total lbs 1480 520 62 1.2 8.7 63 54 $ 31.62 22.13 51.66 26.46 100.25

Litter Composition and Value Average Dry Matter Water Total N NO3-N NH4-N P2O5 K2O Total lbs 1480 520 62 1.2 8.7 63 54 $ 22.13 51.66 26.46 100.25 Need Based N only $22.13 N and P $73.79 N and K $46.59

With Adequate P and K Litter $7/T at the house A/Cow Forage T/A N Req Lbs/A N Total $ / Cow Forage Expense Total $ / Cow Value of Gain per Acre less forage $ 10 .6 .00 190 39 5 1.2 30 72 242 68 4 1.5 50 96 85 3 2 70 101 202 126 2 Tons litter 42 157 141 Here I valued the litter at $6 + a $5 application cost. Astericks on 3 And 2.5 acres per cow with commercial fertilizer – litter sales have been deducted from the fertilizer expense. This is a duplication of the previous slide but with an added column for all those other costs associated with running a cow. $194 dollars per cow based on a native budget for Payne Co. provided by Bill Burton. This includes allowances for such items as supplementation, vet and med, minerals, depreciation, equipment etc. Divided the $194 by the number of acres and subtracted that amount from the value of gain per acre column. Litter $7/T at the house

Implications Demand for litter increases At current prices paid at the house, there is little incentive for the poultry grower to sell litter Price paid to poultry grower should increase

Improving Forage Efficiency

Stocking Rates Start by determining a stocking rate without fertilizer About 1 cow/10 to 12 acres Can the additional cow(s) pay the additional expense?

Forage Expense in Relation to S.R. A/Cow Forage T/A N Req Lbs/A NPK Total $ / Cow Forage Expense Total $ / Cow Value of Gain per Acre less forage $ 10 .6 .00 190 39 5 1.2 30 207 380 40 4 1.5 50 353 57 3 2 70 264 389 64 2 Tons litter 240 355 76 120 227 323 130 Based on Nov. 2007 fertilizer and calf prices. 1000 pound cow and bulls. 450 pounds sold per cow. Custom hay harvest and 60 day hay supply. 40 pounds P and K/A. For 3A and greater only ½ of the acres are fertilized and the N rate/a is doubled to gain efficiency. N = 51¢, P = 81¢, K = 50¢. 450 pounds of calf sales per cow unit at an average price of $1.20/lb. and 100 pounds of cull cow sales at $42 for $582 dollars gross income per cow. 40 pounds of p and k per acre. Custom harvest 2 round bales per cow, $40 per cow. Rent $15/A native and $25 per acre bermudagrass. Litter $30/ton 2ton per acre on the whole acreage. Cow calf enterprise selling all calves at weaning and <1100 pound cow. To understand this table – At 10 acres per cow – you would expect to have $400 cover the remaining cow expenses not included in forage costs? At 2 acres per cow, you expect to have $334 per cow remaining after forage costs to cover the remaining expenses. Will the added number of cows offset the increased cost per cow? Achieving these stocking rates on the amount of nitrogen listed would require above average forage management that would include some limited access or rotational stocking (more than 1 or 2 pastures and closing gates). The fertilizer rates are based on amounts listed in the Forage Budgeting Fact Sheet #2584. N 51¢, P 89¢, K 50¢, $40 Hay/cow, $15 native rent, $25 introduced rent Litter $40/T

Stocking Rate Forage for 1 cow per 10 cost $190 Fertilizer for each additional cow on the 10 acres will cost $325 to $380 325/6Tons = $54 forage cost per ton. Alternative is to buy feed for the next cow(s) Round bale has to cost less than $32 How many cows do you really need??

Northeast Oklahoma is now predominantly Introduced Forages Introduced to compliment Native Range

You can double your stocking rate with 10% of your acreage in introduced forages – Dr. Wilfred McMurphy 9 acres native range with a harvestable yield of 1500 pounds per acre = 13,500 pounds 1 acre bermudagrass/fescue fertilized with 250 pounds of N per acre = 10,000 pounds Total production 23,500 pounds

Forage Requirement for a Spring Calving herd under 4 different management options This shows that a cow unit might require between 14,000 and 17,000 pounds of dry matter per year. The smaller amount is for a 1000 cow, including 20% of the heifers retained as replacements and that cows share of the bull power. The 17,000 is for the same system but retaining the steers through the stocker phase. This suggests that it would be possible to maintain a stocking rate of 1 cow unit per 1.4 to 1.7 acres. And do that in the dry years. OSU Publication E-926

Soil Test before Fertilizer STP > 40 no phosphorus this year STK > 200 no potassium this year Multiple year history of following a soil test consistently – Skip P and K this year Retest every 3 years or less

Improve Fertilizer Use Fertilize only the best soil Fertilize for optimum yields (3T/A fescue and 4 or 5T/A bermudagrass Fertilizer only what is required to reach forage goal Do not fertilize native range

In this example – failure to fertilize with P and K as recommended makes 51¢ N cost $1.04 per pound. 200 lbs N = 1.9 T without the required P and K

Mayes County Fairgrounds Lawn Bermudagrass/Fertilizer Demo Mayes County Fairgrounds Lawn Bermudagrass/Fertilizer Demo. 1997 Fertilized May 12, Harvested August 5 So far this discussion has focused on the application of nitrogen fertilizer. But it is important to remember that P and K, and lime, should be applied as recommended by a soil test. These nutrients are critical to efficient use of the nitrogen as illustrated by this table. This are results of a demonstration on the lawn of the Mayes County Extension Office. This site fits the description of a mismanaged pasture, mowed short every week or 2, at times a parking lot, never fertilized, with an exceptionally low level of P and K. A fairly common belief is that P does not help you till the year after it is applied. A claim that this trial clearly contradicts. If the soil test recommends phosphorus you can expect a fairly rapid and within the season applied. Notice that P and K according to the soil test more than doubled the response to nitrogen up to the 200 pound per acre level. Above 200 pounds of N, moisture became the limiting factor.

Litter might be a good deal if it is available and you need all the nutrients Hard to get due to Competition. Volume that needs to move has not changed. Who will get it? Established relationships Close to the source Large Quantities Flexible Easy to get along with Pays quickly and reliably Patient

Improve Grazing Management Waste Less Healthier Pasture Less Herbicides

Effect of year-round continuous vs Effect of year-round continuous vs. rotational (12 paddocks with cattle rotated every two days) stocking of endophyte-free tall fescue and common bermudagrass mixed grass pastures in the Piedmont of Georgia, three-year average. Continuous Rotational % Change Stocking rate, cow-calf units/A .50 .69 +38 Calf weaning weight, lb 490 486 Total calf gain/A, lb 243 334 +37 Cow pregnancy rate, % 93 95 Hay fed/cow, lb 2,430 1,680 -31

Implication 100 pounds of N per acre for 2T per acre Fertilize 3 acres to get 6 tons per year per cow Improve grazing days by 30% Now 70 pounds of N is adequate Or 100 pounds on 2 acres or 200 pounds on 1 acre.

Forage Expense in Relation to S.R. A/Cow Forage T/A N Req Lbs/A NPK Total $ / Cow Forage Expense Total $ / Cow Value of Gain per Acre less forage $ 10 .6 .00 190 39 5 1.2 30 207 380 40 4 1.5 50 353 57 3 2 70 264 389 64 2 Tons litter 240 355 76 120 227 323 130 Based on Nov. 2007 fertilizer and calf prices. 1000 pound cow and bulls. 450 pounds sold per cow. Custom hay harvest and 60 day hay supply. 40 pounds P and K/A. For 3A and greater only ½ of the acres are fertilized and the N rate/a is doubled to gain efficiency. N = 51¢, P = 81¢, K = 50¢. 450 pounds of calf sales per cow unit at an average price of $1.20/lb. and 100 pounds of cull cow sales at $42 for $582 dollars gross income per cow. 40 pounds of p and k per acre. Custom harvest 2 round bales per cow, $40 per cow. Rent $15/A native and $25 per acre bermudagrass. Litter $30/ton 2ton per acre on the whole acreage. Cow calf enterprise selling all calves at weaning and <1100 pound cow. To understand this table – At 10 acres per cow – you would expect to have $400 cover the remaining cow expenses not included in forage costs? At 2 acres per cow, you expect to have $334 per cow remaining after forage costs to cover the remaining expenses. Will the added number of cows offset the increased cost per cow? Achieving these stocking rates on the amount of nitrogen listed would require above average forage management that would include some limited access or rotational stocking (more than 1 or 2 pastures and closing gates). The fertilizer rates are based on amounts listed in the Forage Budgeting Fact Sheet #2584. N 51¢, P 89¢, K 50¢, $40 Hay/cow, $15 native rent, $25 introduced rent Litter $40/T

Improved Grazing – Less Herbicide Spray every year on 100 Acres ($2100 in 3 years) How much fence could that build? How many goats or sheep could that add? Forbs become an asset rather than a liability.

Managing for Legumes

No P and K Legumes will require fertilizer!

Managing Legumes Require residue management Short in the fall or winter A part of the system but not on all of the acreage Rotational stocking is a must P, K, and lime as recommended by a soil test Can substitute for 100 to 150 pounds of N per acre.

Introduced intensive Scenario A cow to 3 acres requiring 150 pounds of N per acre or cow Save 30% with grazing – now need 100 pounds of N/cow Legumes on 1/3 - now 70 pounds of N per cow.

Less Intensive Scenario 8 acres at 1500 per acre = 12,000 pounds or 1 cow 1 acre bermudagrass/fescue fertilized for 5 tons per acre = 10,000 pounds 1 acre legumes at 3 tons per acre = 6,000 Total production 28,000 on 10 acres

Forage Requirement for a Spring Calving herd under 4 different management options This shows that a cow unit might require between 14,000 and 17,000 pounds of dry matter per year. The smaller amount is for a 1000 cow, including 20% of the heifers retained as replacements and that cows share of the bull power. The 17,000 is for the same system but retaining the steers through the stocker phase. This suggests that it would be possible to maintain a stocking rate of 1 cow unit per 1.4 to 1.7 acres. And do that in the dry years. OSU Publication E-926

Native versus Introduced Without fertilizer, native grasses are the most productive and economical. Multiple income opportunities on native range Recreational leasing (hunting, photography, fishing, camping), Cattle, Small Ruminants Without fertilizer Introduced Forages will need to be stocked as Native.

Summary Do you really want to run that extra cow? If decision is to Fertilize - fewer acres higher yield goal best soils Improve the grazing system