Tanzania JAS: Proposed work program for Joint Analysis /Programming DPG, June 6 2006

Context GoT led JAS process has produced key doc on principles, but no immediate prospect of joint analysis/program replacing agency program documents Many agencies need some form of program document in the near term => Need for short analysis/program document, as DP response to Mkukuta/JAS, prepared by end September latest

Components of a DIY program doc Part 1 JAS – existing text Part 2 Joint country analysis Part 3 Joint programming document [Part 4] Optional, agency specific supplement (preferably kept to a minimum)

Part 2 - Joint analysis : progress Collective effort : 12 agencies actively contributed, about 40+ individuals Outline agreed at DPG wide meetings in April/May First drafts received on most sections, circulated for drafting team review 31 May Compiled draft circulated for review to DP working groups and DPG today

Joint analysis : general drafting guidelines Main focus around Mkukuta implementation, especially: Strengthening national systems, domestic accountability for results Translating Mkukuta growth focus into practice Build on Mkukuta text, draw on existing agreed texts as much as possible Keep it short : max 15 pages total

Joint analysis : next steps Review by DPG working groups (sections for WGs proposed – but all comments welcome) Deadline for comments 16 June Review in July DPG meeting Joint analysis text then folded into combined analysis program document, final draft to DPG meeting September

Part 3 -Joint program doc : outline Intro, review of lessons learnt Managing external financing – mapping out relation of JAS and annual planning and budget process Joint programming – summary of key issues from MTEF responses on Mkukuta financing, consistency with JAS + annex tables Monitoring Risk analysis : identification, mitigation, scenarios/response

Total External financing , % GDP, 99/06

Total External Financing, % GDP, actual 99/06 + MTEF projection 07/09

Total External Financing, actual + projections

MTEF external financing projections DP projections on external financing needed annually as input to MTEF preparation - weaknesses in existing projections highlighted by Government in recent PEFAR consultations At 40%+ budget, comprehensive realistic projections of external financing are a prerequisite of sound fiscal management – would be needed regardless of JAS, joint program doc, etc.

MTEF projections (continued) GoT looking for realistic estimates of projected disbursements for: budget support, sector aid, projects, TA, local financing by LGA, non state + projections on JAS implementation New projections by late July can inform preparation for next cycle and provide basis for Joint Program doc Following PEFAR consultations, MTEF template under discussion with GoT , to be distributed to DPG next week

Tanzania Joint Program document timelines

Tanzania Joint Program Doc milestones

Joint programming challenges : issues for a workshop One day workshop mid July : Cross compare draft MTEF responses, informal feedback Identify shared programming issues eg. financing gaps/mismatch with Mkukuta priorities, scaling up financing core reforms expected fit with JAS principles ………….

Dialogue with GoT Close coordination with other JAS processes, JAS implementation working group, DoL, etc Dialogue on MTEF template and analysis (PER macro group) GoT interest in joint workshop, prior to dialogue on full draft

Areas of work MTEF template/analysis Review of lessons learnt Risk analysis M&E Coordination, Editing

Issues for DPG Support for MTEF exercise from all DPs as DPG response to GoT call for better planning Comments/guidance on proposed work program for joint analysis/program doc Workshop : timing, scope, participation Timetable for final draft Volunteers to maintain inclusive DPG wide engagement Wider stakeholder engagement