APEC Climate Center (APCC) Climate Outlook for AMJ 2010 Presented by : R. H. Kripalani Investigators : Soo-Jin Sohn, Young-Mi Min

Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) To meet the Bogor Goals of free and open trade and investment in the Asia-Pacific region Trade and Investment Liberalization Business Facilitation Economic and Technical Cooperation

Procedure of Seasonal Forecast Participating Institutions APEC Member Economics APEC Climate Center (APCC) MME Seasonal Production Data Collection Quality Check Decision on the official APCC forecasts Deterministic Forecasts (4 DMMEs) Probabilistic Forecast (PMME) 17 models Hindcast Forecast Historical Observation Communication with model holders Outlook Verification (Previous forecast, Hindcast) Graphics (Individual models, DMMEs, PMME, verification) Dissemination Decision on the model set Pre- processing Application (Index forecast, statistical downscaling) 10th 15th 20th

Participating Institutes Member Economies Acronym Organization Model Resolution Australia POAMA Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre  T47L17 Canada MSC Meteorological Service of Canada 1.875   1.875  L50 China NCC National Climate Center/CMA T63L16 IAP Institute of Atmospheric Physics 4   5  L2 Chinese Taipei CWB Central Weather Bureau T42L18 Japan JMA Japan Meteorological Agency T63L40 Korea PNU Pusan National University GDAPS/KMA Korea Meteorological Administration T106L21 GCPS/SNU Seoul National University T63L21 METRI/KMA Meteorological Research Institute 4   5  L17 Russia MGO Main Geophysical Observatory T42L14 HMC Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia 1.12   1.4  L28 Peru SENAMHI El Servicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología 2.8   2.8 L18  USA IRI COLA International Research Institute Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies T42L19 T63L18 NCEP NCEP Coupled Forecast System T62L64 NSIPP/NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration 2   2.5  L34

Participating Models Model Initialization Ensemble Size SST Specification Experimental Type CWB (Chinese Taipei) GDAS from NCEP, date: 12Z from 20091121 to 20091130 (for the 2010JFM case) 10 OPGSST 1.1 from CWB SMIP/HFP GDAPS_F (Korea) NCEP RA2 (Time lagged initial condition – 3-7th 00Z, 06Z, 12Z, 18Z) 20 Forecasted SST MSC_GM2 (Canada) LAF approach with a 12 hour lag Persistence of CMC analysis SST anomaly of the 30 days prior of the start of the runs SMIP2/HFP MSC_GM3 MSC_SEF NCEP (USA) 0Z, January 1-15, 2010, once a day (for the 2010MAM case) 15 Predicted CMIP NIMR 0000UTC 26th Apr. 2004, 12 hour time lag ( for the 2004JJA case) OISST Apr anomaly + climate SST (Persistent) POAMA (Australia) Atmosphere/Land reanalysis from AMIP run nudging 3D atmosphere to Bureau GASP 30, one day lag in initial time between each Predicted, temperature assimilated using Optimum interpolation (Smith et al 1991) into top 500m of ocean every 3 days CMIP, coupled 1-tier

Simple Composite Method : Synthetic Multi-Model Super Ensemble Method: Methodology: Deterministic MME Schemes Simple Composite Method : SCM Simple composite of individual forecast with equal weighting. Step-wise Pattern Projection Method : Simple composite of individual forecasts, after correction by statistical downscaling using SPPM. SPM Multiple Regression Method: Optimally weighted composite of individual forecasts. The weighting coefficient is obtained by SVD based regression. MRG Synthetic Multi-Model Super Ensemble Method: SSE Weighted combination of statistically corrected multi model output.

2010 AMJ Forecast (PREC)

2010 AMJ Forecast (T850)

Updated Participating Models in MME Initialization Ensemble Size SST Specification Experimental Type GCPS (Korea) 6hr interval from 7th to previous 12 predicted SST by KMA/SNU global SST prediction system SMIP/HFP JMA (Japan) BGM method (9 members) and 5-day LAF, the latest is on 12th March,2010 (in case of 2010AMJ) 51 Forecasted SST CMIP * GCPS: Global Climate Prediction System

2010 AMJ Forecast (PREC)

2010 AMJ Forecast (T850)

Hindcast Verification: Deterministic MME (60E-130E, 10S-30N)

The APEC Climate Center Experimental climate Outlook for Mar-Aug 2010 based on 6-month 1-tier MME Forecasts Investigators : Doo Young Lee and Hye-In Jeong

Launched semi-operationally since late 2008. Experimental 6-month 1-tier MME Forecast Launched semi-operationally since late 2008.

Model description CGCM (Tier-1) Models (seasonal 6-month Experimental system) Institute Model name AGCM Resolution OGCM Ensemble Member APCC APCC(CCSM3) CAM3 T85L26 POP1.3 Gx1v3_L40 5 NCEP GFS T62 L64 MOM3 1/3o lat x 1o lon L40 15 BOM POAMA BAM v3.0d T47 L17 ACOM2 0.5-1.5o latx 2o lon L25 10 FRCGC SINT(SINTEX-F) ECHAM4 T106 L19 OPA 8.2 2o cos(lat)x2o lon L31 9 Seoul National Univ. SUT1 SNU T42 L21 MOM2.2 1/3o lat x 1o lon L32 6 Univ. of Hawaii UHT1 T31 L19 UH Ocean 1o lat x 2o lon L2

Hindcast Periods & Target Season Experimental Designs and Data set Hindcast Periods & Target Season APCC 6-month climate forecasts are based on 1-tier predictions from 6 institutions in the APEC region 6-month Integration during the period of 1983-2005 (23 years) SCM (6month MME) : MAMJJA (spring, summer) season started from Feb 1st using CGCM Simple composite of individual forecast with equal weighting. Simple Composite Method (SCM):

Predicted Niño3 Index Indian Ocean Dipole mode index Spatial distributions of forecasted SST Anomalies (SCM) over the tropical Indo-Pacific

Hindcast Verification (Niño3 and IOD indices for MAMJJA)

APCC MAM

APCC JJA

NCEP MAM

NCEP JJA

POAMA MAM

POAMA JJA

SINT MAM

JJA SINT

SUT1 MAM

SUT1 JJA

UHT1 MAM

UHT1 JJA

SCM (Simple Composite Method) MAM

JJA SCM (Simple Composite Method)

Hindcast Verification (Precipitation, Globe)

Thank You.