The passenger arrivals figures analysis What you now do is refer to these figures (and the extended graph you did from 1985 – 2015) and analyse the figures. Basically, does the pattern fit with the Butler Model? If it does (might not be perfect) can you see where the IOM is on the model? – Make sure you use the full graph from the 1850s right up to 2016.

Do the passenger arrival figures fit with the Butler Model? Insert copy of the figures Analyse the figures and see if they are showing signs of decline that will fit with the stages of Butler. Point our years you think fit with the stages of Butler Model Point out any areas of particularly low or high figures and try to give some reasons for this also REMEMBER TO ADD THIS TO ONE OF YOUR METHOD TYPES IN YOUR MATRIX (THE TABLE) – SECONDARY DATA TOURIST ARRIVAL FIGURES.

The Butler Model You should have a sheet with the Butler Model on (find an image). You should have explained how the Butler Model works and in particular what you would expect to see in a tourist resort at that stage e.g run down buildings or lots of investment in hotels, few hotels and few tourists. Pay particular attention to stage 6 because we need to know what we expect to see in Douglas to answer our question…….. Is tourism in Douglas in decline and at Stage 6 of the Butler Model of Tourist Area Evolution?