Chris.kavalec@energy.state.ca.us / 916-654-5184 California Energy Demand (CED) 2011 Revised Electricity and Natural Gas Forecast February 3, 2012 Chris Kavalec Demand Analysis Office Electricity Supply Analysis Division Chris.kavalec@energy.state.ca.us / 916-654-5184

Changes from Preliminary Forecast Economic/demographic projections updated (October 2011) Econometric models re-estimated Climate change formulation led to higher impacts on peak Revised (lower) electric vehicle forecast Incorporation of Television Standards

Statewide Electricity Consumption Average annual growth of 1.56%, 1.10%, and 0.83% from 2011-2020 in the high, mid, and low scenarios, respectively, compared to 1.29% in the 2009 IEPR forecast (CED 2009) Lower starting point vs. CED 2009 Slightly lower in all three scenarios vs. preliminary 2011 forecast (0.73% lower in 2022 in mid case) because of Television Standards, lower electric vehicle forecast, and slightly lower income growth

Electricity Consumption: CED 2011 Revised vs. CED 2009

Electricity Consumption: CED 2011 Revised vs Electricity Consumption: CED 2011 Revised vs. CED 2011 Preliminary (Mid Case)

Statewide Peak Demand Average annual growth of 1.97%, 1.58%, and 1.05% from 2011-2020 in the high, mid, and low scenarios, respectively, compared to 1.29% in the 2009 IEPR forecast (CED 2009) Mid and high case growth higher than CED 2009 because of climate change impacts Slightly lower in mid and low cases vs. preliminary 2011 forecast (0.39% lower in 2022 in mid case) because of lower starting point. Peak is higher in high demand case vs. preliminary because of higher climate change impacts

Peak Demand: CED 2011 Revised vs. CED 2009

Peak Demand: CED 2011 Revised vs. CED 2011 Preliminary (Mid Case)

Revised Forecast Efficiency Impacts Programs, standards, and “price and other” effects Includes impacts from Huffman and Television Standards Higher by 2022 vs. preliminary forecast (7k GWh in mid case) because of television standards and inadvertent omission of 2005 residential building standards in preliminary Efficiency savings inversely related to demand outcome

Revised Forecast Efficiency Impacts

Self-generation Distributed generation and CHP (demand side) CHP held constant Residential PV from predictive model, non-residential using historic trends Self-gen higher than CED 2009 by 2020 mainly because of residential PV; slightly higher than preliminary forecast because of non-residential adjustment

Self-generation Peak Impacts

Electric Vehicles Used high and low scenarios from Plug-in Electric Vehicle Collaborative 500,000 EVs on the road in 2020 in low case, 1 million in high case Staff extrapolated to 2022, distributed to planning areas based on DMV data Mid case is average of high and low Lower forecast than CED 2009 (and preliminary) by 1,600 GWh in mid case (2022)

Electric Vehicle Consumption

Climate Change Impacts on Peak Demand

CED 2011 Revised vs. Pure Econometric Forecast Econometric forecasts slightly higher: (consumption 1 percent higher and peak 2 percent higher in 2022 in mid case) Differences come from aggregate vs. disaggregate approaches and accounting for efficiency Goal is to explicitly account for efficiency in econometric models for better comparison

Consumption: CED 2011 Revised vs. Pure Econometric Forecast (Mid Case)

Peak: CED 2011 Revised vs. Pure Econometric Forecast (Mid Case)