A new perspective on global carbon emission inequality: insights from global interpersonal carbon Gini-index Presented By: Tianpeng Wang Institute of Energy-Environment-Economic, Tsinghua University

Introduction Global emission inequality is a debate focus related to abatement responsibility Emission inequality researches mainly fall into two categories Emission inequality across countries: Developed vs Developing Emission inequality across persons: Rich vs Poor global interpersonal emission inequality Consider emission inequality both from across countries view and across persons view Global Interpersonal Carbon Inequality

Introduction Traditional methods to measure carbon inequality emission population Traditional methods to measure carbon inequality Carbon Lorenz curve and carbon Gini-index Atkinson Index Theil’s entropy measure ……. Concepts related to emission Emission from fossil fuel consumption Consumption based emission: influence of transferred emission of Main focus in our study: total emission and emission from household consumption

Methods Figure 1. Summarize of the methodlogy process Emulate income distribution curve of various countries Build the relationship between income and emission based on literature and some assumptions Construct different countries’ emission distribution curve combined with emission data Aggregate emission distribution curves of all the countries Construct the global Lorenz curve and calculate the global carbon Gini-index

Methods: Emulate income distribution curve of various countries 2-gamma fitting method Lognormal fitting method Data needed: Income distribution data GDP per capital data Income Gini-index of different countries Data source: World Development Indicator (WDI) World Income Inequality database (WIID)

Electricity consumption Methods: Build the relationship between income and emission based on literature and some assumptions Country Variable 1 Variable 2 Year Elasticities Australia Income Household CO2 emission 1993-1994 0.55 Energy consumption 0.59 Expenditures 0.7 0.74 1998-1999 0.78 Brazil 1995-1996 1.0 Denmark 1995 0.48 0.51 0.86 India 1997-1998 2004 1.008 Japan 1999 0.64 Netherland 1990 0.63 0.83 New Zealand 1980 0.4 Norway 1973 0.72 Spain 2000 0.91-0.99 United State 0.35-0.52 0.6-0.8 1972-1973 1960-1961 0.85 South Africa Electricity consumption 0.32 China 2002 0.84 United Kingdom 2006-2009 0.432 Philippines 2000&2006 0.8 Finland GHG emission 2006 0.6 Classification Elasticities Developed countries 0.4-0.6 Developing countries 0.8-1.0 LDC 0.9-1.1 Total fossil fuel caused emission data: EDGAR database and CAIT database. Emission from household consumption: multi-regional input output model (MRIO) based on the GTAP9 database in year 2004 2007 and 2011.

Methods: Construct different countries’ emission distribution and global Lorenz curve Figure 2. Emission distribution curve and global carbon Lorenz curve

Results: The trend of global Gini-index from total fossil fuel emission side view Figure 3. Variance trend of global interpersonal carbon Gini-index

Results: Global CO2 emission distribution curve and emission migration

Results: Comparsion of inequality from total carbon emission and household consumption based emission Figure 4. The proportion of emission from residential consumption in total consumption based emission Table 2. the comparsion of global interpersonal carbon Gini-index respectively based on production side emission and consumption side emission Year 2004 2007 2011 Gini-index on production based emission (interpersonal) 0.618 0.607 0.590 Gini-index on residential consumption based emission (interpersonal) 0.674 0.659 0.630 Gini-index on production based emission (intercountries) 0.546 0.525 0.501 Gini-index on residential consumption based emission (intercountries) 0.620 0.600 0.564

Figure 5. The proportion of emission respectively from fossil fuel use and household consumption by different income group in whole emission, 2011 production consumption production consumption production consumption 2011 2007 2004

Results: Sensitivity analysis of income elasticities Figure 5. Influence of unit alteration from different income elasticities on Gini-index based on emission from total fosill fuel consumption and household consumption caused emission

Discussion and Limits The value of carbon Gini-index came down from 0.67 in 1980 to 0.59 in 2014 Decline of emission inequality at global scale Mainly because of the narrowing between-groups emission gap The global carbon inequality status is still very severe with Gini-index is around 0.6 in recent years especially from household consumption view. Provides a theoretical basis for the abatement responsibility assignment on inter- personal level rather than on national level across countries Main limits of this research: the rough assumption of relationship between emission and income.

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