NTTS Satellite event 17 February Brussels Hugo de Bondt

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Presentation transcript:

NTTS Satellite event 17 February Brussels Hugo de Bondt Dutch growth accounts, intangibles and choice of ICT deflators NTTS Satellite event 17 February Brussels Hugo de Bondt

Background ICT deflators vary Byrne & Corrado 2016: “Official prices are found to substantially understate ICT price declines.” “The paper's primary conclusion is that real ICT price declines remain squarely in negative territory”

Byrne and Corrado results

Eurostat data on deflators Deflators for computers in most EU member states go down:

Computer prices (derived from net stocks) Source: Eurostat

Eurostat data on deflators But for software the picture is more mixed:

Software prices (derived from net stocks) Source: Eurostat

Implications for growth accounts Deflators for computers differ from software Allow for (more) quality-increases in software and telecommunications equipment thereby adjusting the capital contribution

Implications for growth accounts 2012-2014 Research project ICT & economic growth Financed by ministry of Economic Affairs Describe the role of ICT in the Dutch Economy Replication of Chapter 3 in ICT and Economic Growth: Use computer deflators for software and telecommunications equipment Growth accounts based on ESA 2010;

Implications for growth accounts Dutch Growth Accounts Based on ESA 2010 Y-KLEMS and VA-KL Both ex-ante and ex-post rates of return to capital 2001-2015 Commercial sector

Implications for growth accounts Capital contributions with computer deflators for ICT capital, commercial sector 2002/2015 official data computer deflator percentage point Capital 0,2 0,6 ICT capital 0,3 0,7 computers 0,1 software 0,5 communication equipment 0,0 Non-ICT capital -0,1 Source: Statistics Netherlands

Implications for growth accounts Capital contribution more than doubles Mainly because of the software-contribution Telecommunication is larger, but are still zero due to its relative small cost share within capital services Not yet researched: Also the volume-change of value added changes (through own-account production) This then changes the estimate of mfp (by the ratio of the value-added difference and the capital services difference)

References Byrne, D. and C. Corrado, ‘ICT prices and ICT services; what do they tell us about productivity and technology?’, The Conference Board EPWP Series #16-05 (2016). Statistics Netherlands, ICT and Economic Growth, (The Hague/ Heerlen 2015).