Astrology - Science or Scam? Group 2: Jing Kai, Nabilah, Soon Guan (Presenter) Reading: Commentary: A double blinded test of Astrology from Shawn Carlson https://www.amazon.com/Astrology-Zodiac-Traits-Meanings-Beginners-ebook/dp/B01LZOHXNO http://www.sciencelib.ge/en/node/67

Outline Astrology? Hocus pocus or Scientifically valid A double-blind experiment of Astrology by Shawn Carlson Methods and Discussion employed Conclusion

Astrology - Definition https://en.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/astrology https://en.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/astrology

Points to ponder Does Celestial Bodies have really any influence on human affairs? Why humans? What about other living organisms? Are the claims valid? http://planetfacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/Supercluster.jpg -

Astrology v.s. Scientific Community 2 Sided Debate Science Astrology Generating negative results (disputing) against astrology Publishing positive results (supporting) in favour for astrology turned downed by astrologers as caters to science’s concept rather than the astrology component turned down by scientific community on grounds of techniques

A double-blind test of Astrology In 1985, Shawn Carlson decided formula an experiment Sorts to answers to both side of the arguments (science and astrology) Recruited both advisers from science and the astrology Tested there fundamental thesis of natal astrology with experimental study https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shawn_Carlson Scientist - Undergraduate Fundamental thesis - what astrology was based

Natal Astrology - proposition: “ the position of the ‘planets’ (all planets, the Sun and Moon, plus other objects defined by astrologers) at the moment of birth can be used to determine the subject’s general personality traits and tendencies in temperament and behaviour, and to indicate the major issues which the subject is likely to encounter” Quote from the article This was the thesis that Carlson was set out to prove or disprove. Personality and traits Moment of Birth

Roadmap for Astrologers - Natal Chart Interpretation Predictions: Subject’s Personality and Character Astrologers use horoscope to make prediction Includes a table, known as a Natal Chart to show relationship between between astronomical objects Astrologers use horoscope to make prediction https://tribune.com.pk/story/1360737/horoscope-march-21-2017/ https://astrologytoronto.files.wordpress.com/2014/03/astrology-toronto-natal-chart1.jpg

And so…. http://astro.cafeastrology.com/natal.php Key in your name, date of birth, place of birth and time of birth it can generate out a lengthy natal report -

My findings: Produced a rather comprehensive report on how the celestial bodies relates to my personality and character. Lengthy and very descriptive

The experimental methods

Methods and Design of the Experiment - Part 1 Scientific Hypothesis Astrologer’s Prediction Subject selects their own interpretation ⅓ of the time Subject selects their own natal chart ½ of the time Information to construct Natal Chart Choose 2 that are most accurate, no draws allowed Rate: 1-10 (10 most accurate) Volunteers to the study provided their information for astrologers to construct the natal charts. Each subject attempted to select their own natal chart from 3 charts, 2 of which are chosen from other participants at random. Subjects make first at second place choices and rated the accuracy of the interpretation from 1 to 10 - If the interpretation was random (Scientific hypothesis), we would expect them to select their own interpretation ⅓ of the time - Astrologers predicted that given the design of the experiment: they would be able to select their own chart ½ of the time. Own Natal Chart + 2 Randomly selected from study group

Methods and Design of the Experiment - Part 2 The Astrologers were tasked to matched the Natal Chart from a random subject to the California Psychological Inventory (CPI) CPI measures the personality traits of individuals - accepted by psychologist as well CPI consist of 480 true false question which identify 18 personality attributes Attributes in CPI are closest to those that astrologers used - accepted by them widely Natal Chart from a Random Subject From 2 other random subjects Match 2 closest one, no draws allowed Rate: 1-10 (10 most accurate) Scientific Hypothesis Astrologer’s Prediction Correct ⅓ of the time Correct of ½ or more of the time Astrologers where give a random natal chart of a subject and an objective respected measure of his personality traits called the California Personality Inventory (CPI). - CPI is a standard personality test Why CPI? Used extensively since 1958 - CPI attributes are the ones that are closest to those that astrologers used 480 T/F questions which sort to identify 18 personality attributes and put them on the scale. They were give 2 other CPI from the group of all the subjects and they were tasked to select 2 the CPI that describes the personalities closest to the natal chart. They also rated the CPI on a 1-10 scale being highest as to how cloesly it description of the subject’s personality matched the personality description derived from the natal chart. The scientific hypothesis predicts a correct choice ⅓ of the time and the astrologers predicted a correct choice ½ or more

Blinding and Statistical Advice Subjects are assigned 5 digit randomly generated codes as part of blinding procedure Both the results of the Natal charts and CPI were blinded and kept by Prof Muller (on the left) Statistical guidance and advice were given by him as well Important of blinding - eliminate biases or potential fraud by the astrologers or the scientist

Other measures to control bias and accuracy Eliminate those with natal charts constructed before (may identify it better more easily) Resolving the sun-sign bias (factor which makes one identify their chart more easily) - prior knowledge from newspaper Eliminate subjects that are not compliant Gender of the subjects not told to astrologers - gender bias Birth certificates were required to produce accurate natal charts Extensive double blinding, bias removal, control-test group. Scientifically sound and pleased the astrologers as well The difference between past experiment and this one.

Benchmark for the hypothesis test Disagreement by 2.5 or more standard deviation or more would be required to reject the astrological hypothesis in favour of the scientific one Require 2.5 times (or more) standard deviation increase over random chance to interpret the results as favouring the astrological hypothesis. http://images.tutorvista.com/cms/images/113/empiricle-rule.png http://images.tutorvista.com/cms/images/113/empiricle-rule.png

Summary of Results Correct interpretation of results Part 1 Subjects selecting own Natal Chart Part 2 Astrologers selecting correct CPI for Natal Chart 83 Test Subject 94 Control Subject 116 Astrologers Correct 1st Choice 0.337 ± 0.052 (Around 1/3) 0.447 ± 0.049 (Around 1/2) 0.34 ± 0.044 2nd Choice 0.398 ± 0.052 0.362 ± 0.049 0.40 ± 0.044 3rd Choice 0.265 ± 0.052 0.191 ± 0.049 0.25 ± 0.044 All 3 proportions consistent with scientific hypothesis - the astrologers got the correct by chance | 3.3 s.d. Below astrologer’s prediction and well beyond 2.5 s.d. to refute astrological hypothesis ±±±

Conclusion from Carlson’s Study “Despite the fact that we worked with some of the best astrologers in the country, recommended by advising astrologers for their expertise in astrology and their ability to use CPI, despite the fact that every reasonable suggestion made by the advising astrologers was worked into the experiment, despite the fact that the astrologers approved the design and predicted a 50 percent as the ‘minimum’ effect to perform at a level better than chance” “Their predicted connection between the position of the planets and other astronomical objects at the time of birth and the personalities of test subject did not exist” “The experiment clearly refutes the astrological hypothesis” - From the style of how the conclusion was written you can sort of tell that carlson was out to prove that astrology was fake - Pretty savage and critical in is tone of language - Gives me the impression that he felt that it was a waste of his time doing this because he knew it will how the results will turn out from the start.

Why do people still believe in this stuff (Astrology)? Personal Opinion: We’re all uncertain about what lies in the future At the same time uncertainty draws curiosity/desire to know Gives us some sort of psychological reassurance or gratification on what awaits us in the future http://www.mediumchristophercasas.com/new-events/2016/10/26/palm-reading-divination-class http://moralcommunities.com/people-believe-astrology/ http://science.howstuffworks.com/science-vs-myth/extrasensory-perceptions/tarot-card.htm

Conclusion Statistics can be used to refute pseudoscience (or mythology) The line between pseudoscience and science can be distorted at times Sound statistical methods and scientific methods can use to differentiate between both Important to review claims, studies with caution

Fischer and Lady Tasting Tea Publication Bias and Paxil Media and Scientific Research

Reference Commentary: A double blinded test of Astrology from Shawn Carlson http://astro.cafeastrology.com/natal.php http://moralcommunities.com/people-believe-astrology/