Presidential Approval Ratings and The “Rally ‘Round the Flag” Effect

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Rally ‘round the Flag Effect Milburn Psychology 335.

Advertisements

Public Opinion Polling How Public Opinion is Measured (and Mismeasured)

October 27-31, 2013/ N=1,000 Registered “likely” voters / ±3.1% M.O.E. THE GEORGE WASHINGTON BATTLEGROUND POLL A national survey of 1,000 Registered “Likely”

The Public between elections: A Check on Presidential Power?

April 22-24, 2001 / N=1,000 Registered Voters / ±3.1% M.O.E. A Survey Of Voter Attitudes Nationwide for the #8633.

The Articles of Confederation *Under the articles: - Each state had one vote - Congress could declare war, appoint military officers, & coin money.

BATTLEGROUND Presidential Tracking Fall 2004 Tracking/ N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E. If the election for President were held today,

Unit 2 Ch 6-11 Inputs to US Government. Public opinion Shared attitudes of many people on politics, issues, etc. Measured by opinion polls –Usually by.

BATTLEGROUND XXV. June 20-23, 2004/ N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E. If the election for President were held today, and you had to make.

June 11-13, 2000 / N=1000 “Likely” Voters Nationwide / ±3.1% M.O.E. A Survey Of National Voter Attitudes for the #8296.

July 30 - August 3, 2000 / N=500 registered “likely” voters daily A Tracking Survey of National Voter Attitudes for the Republican National Convention.

The Executive Branch #9 Power!. How powerful is the president? What can be done to “ check and balance ” his power?

Conducted January 3-5, 2000 N = 1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters Nationwide, and n = 250 Hispanic Voters Nationwide With A +3.1% Margin Of Error.

August , 2000 / N=500 registered “likely” voters daily A rolling sample of N=1,000 Margin of Error +3.1% A Tracking Survey of National Voter Attitudes.

Conducted January 3-5, 2000 N = 1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters Nationwide, and n = 250 Hispanic Voters Nationwide With A +3.1% Margin Of Error.

THE POLL Lake Snell Perry A s s o c i a t e s, I n c March 12-13, 2000 / N=1,000 Registered “Likely”Voters / ±3.1% M.O.E. A Survey Of Voter Attitudes for.

THE POLL Lake Snell Perry A s s o c i a t e s, I n c May 1-3, 2000 / N=1000 “Likely”Voters nationwide / ±3.1% M.O.E. A Survey Of National Voter Attitudes.

Public Opinion: Mass vs. Elite Public Opinion & Presidential Approval Ratings.

& Conducted January 3-5, 2000 N = 1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters Nationwide.

THE POLL Lake Snell Perry A s s o c i a t e s, I n c May 1-3, 2000 / N=1000 “Likely”Voters nationwide / ±3.1% M.O.E. A Presentation Of National Voter Attitudes.

September 5 – November 2, 2000 / N=250 registered “likely” voters daily A Tracking Survey of National Voter Attitudes (unweighted) September 5 – November.

March 28-31, 2004/N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E. BATTLEGROUND XXIV.

& Conducted June 6 - 8, 1999 N=1,002 Registered “Likely” Voters Nationwide, With A +3.1% Margin Of Error.

July 30 - August 3, 2000 / N=500 registered “likely” voters daily A Tracking Survey of National Voter Attitudes for the Democratic National Convention.

Bias in Polling Questions. Measuring Public Opinion Random sample – in this type of sample, every individual has a known and random chance of being selected:

THE POLL May 1-3, 2000 / N=1,000 Registered “Likely”Voters / ±3.1% M.O.E. #8263 THE POLL.

Hoover’s response to the depression

TEN: Launching the New Ship of State Essential Questions 1.Summarize the key challenges and accomplishments of the very earliest days of the.

POLI 300 STUDENT POLITICAL ATTITUDES SURVEY FALL & SPRING 2009.

BATTLEGROUND XXIV. March 28-31, 2004/ N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E. If the election for President were held today, and you had to make.

BATTLEGROUND XXVII.

The Decline of George W. Bush’s Approval Rating

BATTLEGROUND XXIX.

Presidential Popularity

Chapter 13: The Presidency

Presidential Leadership

Free Response #4 Joe Morra.

BATTLEGROUND Presidential Tracking 2004

The Presidency Review.

GENERAL IDEAS FROM CHAPTER 13

A Survey Of National Voter Attitudes for the

Explain the meaning of the quote:

U.S. Government Structure

Chapter Nine The Presidency.

GOVERNMENT: Unit 4 Review

Public Attitudes October 17, 2017.

Party Conventions Nominate party presidential candidates

Presidential Popularity

Warm-Up It is The Constitution has finally been ratified. Our nation has had its first presidential election. George Washington has been chosen.

Analyzing Nixon’s Approval Ratings

F. Presidential Campaign

The Presidency.

POS 2041: American Politics Today

Chapter 13: The Presidency

American Government and Organization

Washington’s Presidency

The Presidency In Action

Day 4: Approval Voting Unit 1 Review

5-3: Presidential Use of the Media and Informal Powers

5-3: Presidential Informal Powers

The Bicentennial Campaign and the Carter Victory

Chapter 9 – Copy what is in blue

Who Gets to Be President?

United States Government

Quick Quiz Review Wash/Adam/Jeff

STA 291 Summer 2008 Lecture 15 Dustin Lueker.

STA 291 Spring 2008 Lecture 15 Dustin Lueker.

Public Opinion Polls and the 2008 Presidential Election

Presentation transcript:

Presidential Approval Ratings and The “Rally ‘Round the Flag” Effect Public Opinion: Presidential Approval Ratings and The “Rally ‘Round the Flag” Effect

Presidential Approval Today, presidential approval is gauged in very regular intervals “Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president? “ In addition to this general assessment of presidential job performance, polling companies also ask a variety of more specific questions on the economy, foreign affairs, taxes, etc.

Presidential Approval A President’s public approval ratings will give him leverage: In Washington Increases bargaining ability Increases his ability to “go public” Some believe that it increases his success rate on roll-call votes in Congress Nationally Can serve as an early barometer for upcoming elections

Determinants of Presidential Approval Rating Best predictor: Consumer expectations What leads to deviations from this? Honeymoon effects Presidents enjoy higher levels of approval at the beginning of a term Rally ‘round the flag effect Presidents get a large bump in approval during times of national crisis

Rally Events What defines a “rally event”? International event Event directly involves the United States and particularly the president Specific, dramatic, and sharply focused Salient to the public These events confront the nation as a whole Gain enormous public event and attention

Why do people “rally around the flag”? People will increase their support for the president (at least in the short-run) because he is the symbol of the country and the primary focus during times of crisis People do not want to hurt nation’s chance at success by opposing the president

George H.W. Bush

George W. Bush