CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY SCENARIOS - BULGARIA Promitheas-4: Knowledge transfer and research needs for preparing mitigation / adaptation policy portfolios CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY SCENARIOS - BULGARIA L. Radulov, A. Nikolaev Black Sea Regional Energy Centre 4.6.2018 г. ATHENS

BULGARIAN CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION POLICY (1) Bulgaria is committed to EU 20-20-20 targets: 20% reduction of primary energy consumption 20% share of renewable energies 20% reduction of GHG emissions Bulgarian Energy Strategy: 16% share of RES by 2020 (based on 9,6% share in 2005), of which 10% RES in the transport sector 50% reduction of GDP energy intensity in 2020 compared to 2005 increase of the energy efficiency by 25% by 2020 4.6.2018 г. ATHENS

BULGARIAN CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION POLICY (2) National Energy Efficiency Action Plan of Bulgaria: 9% reduction of the energy consumption for the period 2008 – 2016 includes numerous measures (by sectors) to reach this target estimates the energy saving effect and costs of the existing and planned measures by 2020 National Renewable Energy Action Plan: National 2020 target and estimated trajectory of renewable energy in heating and cooling, electricity, and transport Includes numerous measures promoting renewable energy development by 2020 4.6.2018 г. ATHENS

BULGARIAN CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION POLICY (3) Third National Action Plan for Climate Change 2013-2020: 21% reduction of GHG emissions in 2020 compared to 2005 for the sectors covered by the Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) 20% increase of GHG emissions in 2020 compared to 2005 for sectors outside ETS Specifies GHG emission reduction measures and estimates their effects in terms of GHG reduction and cost 4.6.2018 г. ATHENS

BULGARIAN ADAPTATION POLICY There are only few studies assessing the climate change impact on forestry and agriculture Adaptation needs are stated only generally in the 5th National Communication and 3rd National Action Plan for Climate Change There are neither a national adaptation strategy nor any planned adaptation measures 4.6.2018 г. ATHENS

THREE M/A POLICY SCENARIOS Business as usual (BAU) Optimistic (OPT) – ambitious M/A policies Pessimistic (PES) –M/A policies with average ambitions 4.6.2018 г. ATHENS

BUSINESS-AS-USUAL SCENARIO Assumptions The energy intensity of all economic sectors remains unchanged In households, the energy consumption is proportionate to both the number of households and the average household income In the energy production, only the planned (as of 31.12.2010) changes are considered – increase of renewable energy capacities, shut down of existing plants, etc High adaptation needs, but minimum adaptation measures 4.6.2018 г. ATHENS

OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO Assumptions Energy end-use efficiency: until 2020 the measures specified in the 2nd NEEAP (2011); in 2021–2050 additional ambitious EE measures Gradual improvement of the efficiency of all power plants, except for NPP and HPP, and lower transmission and distribution losses Change of the energy demand structure: e.g. gradual shift of the transport sector to electricity, reaching 65% electricity in 2050 Change in the energy production sources’ structure: e.g. quick expansion of renewable energy, slow expansion of the natural gas share, substantial decrease of coal share Low adaptation needs, but these needs are seriously addressed 4.6.2018 г. ATHENS

PESSIMISTIC SCENARIO Assumptions Additional M/A measures compared to the Business-As-Usual scenario, but less than the Optimistic scenario The additional measures are limited to the most cost-effective ones 4.6.2018 г. ATHENS

BS: ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SECTORS 4.6.2018 г. ATHENS

BS: final energy consumption by fuel 4.6.2018 г. ATHENS

BS: Electricity capacities 4.6.2018 г. ATHENS 12 12

BS: DISTRICT HEATING BY FUEL 4.6.2018 г. ATHENS 13 13

BS – GHG emissions (CO2 eq.) 4.6.2018 г. ATHENS 14 14

Energy consumption in the 3 scenarios 4.6.2018 г. ATHENS 15 15

Electricity capacities in the 3 scenarios 4.6.2018 г. ATHENS 16

GHG emissions in the 3 scenarios 4.6.2018 г. ATHENS 17 17

Scenario evaluation Criteria Highest score Lowest score GHG emission reduction OPT BAU Indirect environmental effects Cost effectiveness Dynamic cost efficiency Competitiveness Equity Flexibility OPT, PES Stringency for non compliance all equal Implementation network capacity Administrative feasibility Financial feasibility 4.6.2018 г. ATHENS 18 18

AGGREGATE SCORE OF SCENARIOS BAU OPT PES 11,9 78,2 41,5 OPT has the highest score BAU has the lowest score 4.6.2018 г. ATHENS 19

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION ! Promitheas-4: Knowledge transfer and research needs for preparing mitigation / adaptation policy portfolios THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION ! L. Radulov, A. Nikolaev Black Sea Regional Energy Centre 4.6.2018 г. ATHENS