Presentation for Session VI. Human Mortality over Age, Time, Sex, and Place. The First HMD Symposium. June 18-19, 2004. Rostock, Germany. Presentation for Session VI. Official population statistics and re-estimation of old age populations of European countries with the Human Mortality Database Dmitry Jdanov, Rembradt Scholz and Vladimir Shkolnikov Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research

Importance of precise estimates of old-age populations. Increase in absolute numbers and proportions of men and women aged 80+ and 90+ for the total population of Denmark, E&W, Finland, France, West Germany, Hungary, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, and Switzerland. Importance of precise estimates of old-age populations. 2

HMD is an unusual database HMD is an unusual database. Population estimates at ages over 80 have to be recalculated after each update from newly obtained population at the beginning of the last available year and deaths. Following V.Kannisto we rely on the extinct cohorts method. It assumes that there is no international migration at ages over 80 and that data on deaths and ages at death are precise. The basic idea is that at old ages quality of death data is better than quality of population estimates. Extinct cohort method returns reliable estimates of survivors to old ages (Thatcher, 1992, 2001, Kannisto, 1988, 1994, Hill et al., 2000). 3

Age w B C 90 A 80 Time About tn - 15 tn tn - 10 HMD Methods Protocol: Regions for application of different procedures for re-estimating of populations on the Lexis map. A-official population estimates; w -age of extinction (about 103-105) B-extinct cohort method; tn-beginning of the last available year C-survival ratio+extinct cohort methods tn Time 80 90 w B C A Age tn - 10 About tn - 15 4

W- Age of extinction is the youngest age, such that during the last five calendar years mean death number at ages beyond this age does not exceed 1/2. For populations of modern developed countries this age is usually about 103-105 years. B: Extinct cohort method. For extinct cohorts, older than age W, there are no people alive in the last available year and their population over ages can be estimated by a diagonal summing of deaths. C: If population at the beginning of the last year is available for an open ended age interval (e.g. 90+, 95+, or 100+), we apply the survivor ratio method to estimate population by single ages over age 90. This method assumes that 5-year survival in a cohort in question is the same as the average survival of five previous cohorts. After obtaining the last year population by single age group, the extinct cohort method can be applied. 5

Illustration of the extinction rule from the HMD Methods Protocol by John Wilmoth et al. 6

Illustration of the survivor ratio method from the HMD Methods Protocol by John Wilmoth et al. 7

w- Age of extinction is the youngest age, such that during the last five calendar years mean death number at ages beyond this age does not exceed 1/2. For populations of modern developed countries this age is usually about 103-105 years. B: Extinct cohort method. For extinct cohorts, older than age w there are no people alive in the last available year and their population over ages can be estimated by a diagonal summing of deaths. C: If population at the beginning of the last year is available for an open ended age interval (e.g. 90+, 95+, or 100+), we apply the survivor ratio method to estimate population by single ages over age 90. This method assumes that 5-year survival in a cohort in question is the same as the average survival of five previous cohorts. After obtaining the last year population by single age group, the extinct cohort method can be applied. 8

Age-cohort-year-specific relative differences between the HMD and official population estimates at ages 80+ in East and West Germany. (In per cent) males males Observations: Cohort patterns of the differences. Increase with age. Census points and inter-census periods are clearly visible. Population estimates are significantly adjusted after each census. The differences decline with time. It seems that for males the differences are slightly greater than for females. females females 9

West Germany Age-standardized relative differences between the HMD and official population estimates at age 80+ in East and West Germany. females males East Germany Absolute differences 10

Not in all countries situation with death registration and availability of data on deaths at the oldest ages is as good as it is in Germany. Two types of problems: - no death counts until the highest age  procedure for splitting death; - quality of data on deaths. Artificial decline in e(80) in Sweden from 1750 to 1820 due to increasing completeness of death counts Age heaping at ages 85 and 90 in Russia before 1970. 11

Review of population data of 12 European countries.

Long-term trends in age-standardized relative difference between the HMD and the official estimates of population aged 80+. Switzerland Finland England and Wales France 13

Factors of relative difference between the HMD and the official estimates of population aged 80+ in six European countries since 1910. Coefficients from an OLS regression: B*100 / Standard Error/ p 14

Norway Sweden The Netherlands England and Wales Hungary Russia 15

The average relative difference between the HMD and the official estimates of population aged 80+. 16

Factors of relative difference between the HMD and the official estimates of population aged 80+ in six European countries: 1950-1999. Coefficients from an OLS regression: B*100 / Standard Error/ p 17