Simple Exponential Smoothing

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Presentation transcript:

Simple Exponential Smoothing Principles of Business Forecasting: Chapter 3

Pay more attention to the recent past Use all the data Pay more attention to the recent past Objectives

Applications and Implementations Excel PowerBI Tableau EViews R Forecast Library

Method or Model Forecast Function: An equation for calculating the forecasts over the forecast horizon Forecasting Method: A numerical procedure for generating a forecast. It involves the direct use of the forecast function. When such methods are not based upon an underlying statistical model, they are termed heuristic. Statistical (forecasting) model: A statistical description of the data- generating process from which a forecasting method may be derived. Forecasts are made using a forecast function derived from the model. A statistical model is a necessary foundation for the construction of prediction intervals.

Forecast Horizon and Forecast Origin

Forecast Notation: Horizon = 1 Origin = t

Forecast Notation: Horizon = 1 Origin = 200

Forecast Notation: Horizon = 1 Origin = 2017m08

Forecast Notation: Horizon = 12 Origin = 2017m08

Mean Value Forecasts

Moving Average Forecasts

Simple Exponential Smoothing