Population and sustainable development Francesco C. Billari Università Bocconi Director, Graduate Degree in Economic and Social Sciences (DES-LS) in collaboration with Andrea Beltratti

Outline of the talk Sustainable development Population: the country level Population: the global level Modeling population dynamics Modeling enviromental impact and population

Sustainable development “Our common future” (1987), a.k.a. Brundtland report: "Sustainable development is development thatmeets the needs of the present withoutcompromising the ability of futuregenerations to meet their own needs."

Sustainable development General idea, with population (present vs. future generations in mind) Idea of sustainability can be applied at different scales (…, country-level, …, global level)

The country level: deforestation In a given nation of region, deforestation can be linked to population growth … future generations will have no forests .. See e.g. Costarica (Rosero-Bixby and Palloni, Population & Environment)

The country level: deforestation

The country level: deforestation

The country level: sustainability and age structure In a given nation of region, economic sustainability is also linked to the age structure of the population Population ageing is the new challenge Traditionally, age pyramids are used to describe the age structure of populations

The country level: sustainability and age structure The age structure of a population at a given time t is the function of: Fertility and mortality between about t-100 and t Immigration and emigration between about t-100 and t Moreover, the age structure of a population carries what is defined as ‘population momentum’: those who will be aged 40 in 20 years are already born…

An example of a ‘young’ population in the Mediterranean

An example of a ‘mature’ population

An example of a forecast ‘aged’ population