Frank Asche Roy Endré Dahl FAO FPI Workshop Price Volatility Wild vs Aquaculture – aquaculture va wild and trade and reexports Frank Asche Roy Endré Dahl FAO FPI Workshop

Introduction Fishing is a risky venture Price variability is a significant risk component Few studies on fish-price volatility, relative to other agricultural commodities Data availability Single species volatility studies (e.g. Oglend and Sikveland, 2008; Oglend, 2013, Sollibakken, 2012; Buguk et. al. 2003) Forecast studies (e.g. Guttormsen, 1999; Vukina and Anderson, 1994; Gu and Anderson, 1995). Oglend, A. and Dahl R. E. «Fish Price Volatility» Forthcoming in Marine Resource Economics

Volatility for different groups

Volatility Across Technology Regime Analysis Results Mean Monthly Trade Quantity: Aquaculture > Wild Mean Trade Variation: Wild > Aquaculture Result is robust when trade quantity and trade variation is accounted for

Volatility Across Species Mean Monthly Trade Quantity: Crustaceans > White Fish > Tuna > Pelagic > Salmonidae > Other Fish Mean Trade Variation: Pelagic > Crustaceans > Salmonidae > Tuna > White Fish > Other Fish Salmonidae has higher trade variation, so when trade variation is normalized volatility is lower

Volatility Across Species Regime Analysis Results

Volatility Across Product Forms

Volatility Across Product Forms Regime Analysis Results Frozen can keep a more stable supply, has a lower c.v. of trade.

Volatility Across Product Forms Regime Analysis Results Frozen can keep a more stable supply, has a lower c.v. of trade.

Volatility rankings (lower is lower volatility)

Quantity produced in Norway

Real Norwegain production value(2012=1)

Real unit prices (2012=1)

Demand elastisity for cod at the export level Conventional is price inelastic Fit the old truth that the conventional share of the landings increase at high prices Whole frozen is most elastic Fresh filet is different Demand elasticity Dried salted -0.69 Wet salted -0.67 Dried -0.85 Frozen whole -2.42 Frozen filet -1.26 Fresh filet -1.85 Fresh whole -0,77

Demand elastisity for cod at the export level Conventional is price inelastic Fit the old truth that the conventional share of the landings increase at high prices Whole frozen is most elastic Fresh filet is different Demand elasticity Dried salted -0.69 Wet salted -0.67 Dried -0.85 Frozen whole -2.42 Frozen filet -1.26 Fresh filet -1.85 Fresh whole -0,77

Demand elastisity for cod at the export level Conventional is price inelastic Fit the old truth that the conventional share of the landings increase at high prices Whole frozen is most elastic Fresh filet is different Demand elasticity Dried salted -0.69 Wet salted -0.67 Dried -0.85 Frozen whole -2.42 Frozen filet -1.26 Fresh filet -1.85 Fresh whole -0,77

Norwegian exports of cod by product form

Norwegian export shares of cod by product form

Real export value and quantity, why do not the value increase with quantity?

Wet salted cod: The price decrease so much with increased quantities that the value is reduced

Frozen whole: Quantity increase so much that the price reduction is compensated

Index for value development by product form

Index for value development by product form

South american fish production

Brazil

Columbia

Costa Rica

Honduras

Nicaragua

Peru witout industrials