HURRICANE OTTO, A LATE-SEASON STORM, HEADING FOR COASTA RICA AND NICARAGUA November 21-25, 2016 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA lecture by Walter Hays Uploading date: November 24, 2016 More lectures at Disasters Supercourse - http://www.pitt.edu/~super1/disasters/BADisasterSupercourse.htm PPT original - http://www.pitt.edu/~super7/54011-55001/54851.ppt URL: http://www.pitt.edu/~super1/lecture/lec54851/index.htm

THE 2015 SEASON LULLED EVERYONE TO SLEEP

THE 2016 SEASON FORE-CAST CALLED FOR MORE

- - - AND IT DID PRODUCE MORE STORMS

HURRICANE OTTO; A LATE SEASON HURRICANE

The 2016 Hurricane season officially ends on November 30, and while the month of November can have named storms, the season is generally winding down and storms like Otto this late in November are infrequent occurrences.

CAT 2 HURRICANE OTTO ON WEDNESDAY, NOV. 23, 2016

On Wednesday night, the storm was 160 km (100 miles) north-northeast of Limon, Costa Rica, and was forecast to make landfall on Thursday in Nicaragua, just north of the Costa Rican border.

PANAMA, COSTA RICA, AND NICARAGUA

ENROUTE, PANAMA CITY: DOWNED TREE KILLS A BOY

ENROUTE, PANAMA CITY: HOUSE DESTROYED BY MUDSLIDE

COSTA RICA: STATE OF EMERGENCY President Luis Guillermo Solís, Costa Rica, declared a state-of-emergency as Otto moved towards landfall. Thousands were evacuated from the Caribbean coast; hospitals in the most at-risk areas have suspended elective surgeries and patients transferred.

NICARAGUA: PREPARING FOR OTTO Nicaragua closed schools and began evacuating more than 10,000 people from communities in the storm’s path. Heavy rains are expected to affect the entire country on Thursday and Friday, increasing the risk of flooding and landslides.

THREE DEATHS IN PANAMA (- - - but more are likely)

OTTO WAS PRECEDED BY HURRICANE MATTHEW, WHICH TOOK ITS PLACE IN HISTORY October 5--10, 2016

Hurricane Matthew was a very powerful, long-lived and deadly tropical storm

MATTHEW WAS THE FIRST CAT 5 HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN SINCE 2007

TRACK OF HURRICANE MATTHEW

NOW, ON TO FLORIDA AND THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES, - - - FIRST, MATTHEW STRUCK THE CARIBBEAN BASIN, (E.G., HAITI, JAMAICA, CUBA) NOW, ON TO FLORIDA AND THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES, - - -

FORCAST FOR MATTHEW: OCTOBER 6--?

Nearly 2 Million Under Evacuation in US Ahead of Hurricane Matthew’s Arrival; 16 Killed in Caribbean

THE CARIBBEAN BASIN

The Caribbean: long referred to as the West Indies, includes more than 7,000 islands; of these, 13 are independent island countries

Natural Phenomena that Cause Disasters Planet Earth’s atmospheric-hydrospheric-lithospheric interactions create SEVERE WINDSTORMS

ELEMENTS OF WINDSTORM RISK HAZARDS EXPOSURE RISK VULNERABILITY LOCATION

WIND PENETRATING BUILDING ENVELOPE CAUSES OF DAMAGE WIND PENETRATING BUILDING ENVELOPE UPLIFT OF ROOF SYSTEM FLYING DEBRIS HURRICANES STORM SURGE IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN “DISASTER LABORATORIES” SITING PROBLEMS FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES

HIGH POTENTIAL LOSS EXPOSURES IN A SEVERE WINDSTORM Entire communities; People, property, infra-structure, business enterprise, government centers, crops, wildlife, and natural resources.

HAZARDS OF A SEVERE WINDSTORM (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS) WIND FIELD [CAT 1 (55 mph) TO CAT 5+ (155 mph or greater)] DEBRIS STORM SURGE/FLOODS HEAVY PRECIPITATION/FLOODS LANDSLIDES (MUDFLOWS) COSTAL EROSION

REVIEW OF THE 2016 SEASON

NAMED ATLANTIC BASIN STORMS IN 2016 ALEX - Tropical storm; January (rare) BONNIE - Tropical storm; May 27 COLIN – Tropical storm; June 6 Danielle – Tropical storm; June 20 EARL – Hurricane; August 6

TROPICAL STORM --HURICANE EARL IMPACTED HONDURAS, GUATEMALA, BELIZE, AND MEXICO AUGUST 5-9, 2016

EARL CASUED OVER 40 DEATHS IN MEXICO

TROPICAL STORM EARL BECAME HURRICANE EARL

EVEN AS IT WAS DYING, EARL WAS DEADLY

The heavy rainfall from a diminished and dying Earl caused mudslides that led to 40 deaths in eastern Mexico’s Puebla State.

Earl dumped very heavy rain- fall on the region, causing flooding and mudslides, killing six people in the Mexican townships of Coscomatepec and Tequila and at least 40 in Puebla State

MUDSLIDES: SEARCH AND RESCUE

NAMED ATLANTIC BASIN STORMS IN 2016 FIONA - Tropical storm; No consequence (NC) GASTON - Tropical storm; NC HERMINE – Tropical storm; Hurricane IAN – Tropical storm; NC JULIA – Tropical storm; NC

HURRICANE GASTON (far right): HERMINE (TD 9--far left)

AUG. 31: GASTON DIED IN THE ATLANTIC

HERMINE HEADED FOR LANDFALL IN FLORIDA AND PATH ALONG EAST COAST Rain and wind already starting in Florida with much more to come

NAMED ATLANTIC BASIN STORMS IN 2016 KARL - Tropical storm; NC LISA - Tropical storm; NC MATTHEW – Tropical storm;

NAMED ATLANTIC BASIN STORMS STILL POSSIBLE IN 2016 NICOLE – Tropical storm; OTTO – Tropical storm; PAULA – Tropical storm RICHARD –Tropical storm

GOAL: WINDSTORM DISASTER RESILIENCE WINDSTORM HAZARDS PEOPLE & BLDGS. VULNERABILITY LOCATION WINDSTORM RISK ACCEPTABLE RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK RISK GOAL: WINDSTORM DISASTER RESILIENCE COMMUNITIES DATA BASES AND INFORMATION PREPAREDNESS PROTECTION EARLY WARNING EMERGENCY RESPONSE RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION POLICY OPTIONS HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL WIND-STORMS PREPAREDNESS FOR ALL THE LIKELY SEVERE WIND-STORM HAZARDS IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL WIND-STORMS TECHNOLOGIES THAT FACILITATE THREAT IDENTI-FICATION FOR EARLY WARNING AND EVACUATION IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL WINDSTORMS TIMELY EMERGENCY RESPONSE IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

STRATEGIC COLLABORATION IS IMPORTANT

STRATEGIES FOR WINDSTORM DISASTER RESILIENCE PURPOSE MONITORING FOR WARNING AND EVACUATION PROTECTION TECHNIQIE DOPPLER RADAR; PLANES; DRONES; SATTELITES; INTL SPACE STATION WIND-RESILIENT CONSTRUCTION

STRATEGIES FOR WINDSTORM DISASTER RESILIENCE PURPOSE LAND USE CONTROL COMMUNITY PROTECTION TECHNIQIE COASTAL ZONE MANAGEMENT DIKES, LEVEES, AND DAMS

STRATEGIES FOR WINDSTORM DISASTER RESILIENCE PURPOSE TEMPORARY SHELTER INSURANCE and (SELF-INSURANCE) TECHNIQIE SAFE HAVENS FOR EVACUEES FACILITATE RECOVERY