Local Planning and BREXIT Eddie Holmes Senior Intelligence Analyst Luton Borough Council

Overview Luton is a town with high levels of international migration High projected population growth Early investigation into the impact of BREXIT Implications for council services Implications for planned house building Implications for labour market

Luton Background Strong population growth – 2015 MYE 214,700, population at 2011 Census 203,600 74,300 households, with an average HH size of 2.71. Average HH size was 2.59 in 2001 Evidence of very large households some up to 30 people Younger than average population Strong population growth in urban areas Estimated need for 20,000 dwellings High population density and limited space to build

Luton Background High population turn-over, estimated 70% of population either not born or moved to Luton since 2001 Census High BME Population, 55% BME at 2011 Census Large South Asian population High international migration –’super-diverse’ over 100 languages and dialects spoken New East European population, over 10,000 at last Census, evidence this is not short term migration Migration from Romania since change in law

Deprivation in Luton

Local Economy Formerly dominated by manufacturing Service sector biggest share of economy but manufacturing still above national average Growing airport and associated business large part of economy, estimated 10,000 jobs Growing economy and high rate of business start ups Skill shortage in town means that commuters into town have higher average earnings than residents

BREXIT Issues Reduced access to EU market could hinder airport and associated business growth Labour market shortages for local economy If migration is reduced will this reduce pressure on schools? Potential impact of loss of migrant workforce on services such as care homes LBC investing in up-skilling local population Loss of EU funded projects

Population Projection Scenarios Current methodology uses 10 year average of migration and local mortality and fertility rates Hard BREXIT assumes inward international migration is reduced and EU citizens are not granted right to stay in UK Soft BREXIT scenario assumes inward international migration is reduced and EU citizens are granted right to stay in UK ‘Finger in air’ nature of assumptions but does give an indication of possible scenarios for planning

EU Citizens in Luton

NINO Registrations in Luton

Migration to Overseas Hard BREXIT assumes no agreement for EU citizens to stay in the UK Uses Census and schools data to estimate East European population with age breakdown Movement out of UK over a period of 3 years Younger age group than current migration schedule No attempt to estimate UK citizens coming back to UK from EU countries – Potential for future research Work very ‘experimental’ at the moment Impact of ‘Hard BREXIT’ needs examining, implications for labour market, schools and house planning

Hard BREXIT Migration Schedule

Population Projection Comparison Luton Population Projections Scenario Comparisons

Age Breakdown of Scenarios Age Breakdown of Population Projection Scenarios

Summary Experimental nature of work Research needed to attempt to gauge impact on labour market, older age groups and school age population for planning Issues of labour market shortages Uncertainty for house building School place planning Ratio of working age to retirement age issue Research needed throughout the BREXIT process