FOURTEEN COUNTRY STUDY Perils of Perception FOURTEEN COUNTRY STUDY

The research is based on an international sample of 11,527 adults aged 18-64 in the US and Canada, and age 16-64 in all other countries. Sample size is approximately 1,000 per country, with the exception of Belgium, Hungary, Poland, South Korea and Sweden where each have a sample of approximately 500 This study is based on a survey run on Ipsos Global @dvisor, between 12-26 August 2014 Global @dvisor is conducted monthly in 24 countries around the world via the Ipsos Online Panel. For this study, 14 countries with high internet penetration were included: Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Great Britain, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Poland, South Korea, Spain, Sweden and the United States of America Data are weighted to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to the most recent Census data in each country The “point difference” figures that show differences between the “actual” and “average guesses” may not match a straight subtraction. This is due to rounding, as the calculation is conducted using decimal places

Comparing our misperceptions

INDEX OF IGNORANCE Italy US Ranked by most ignorant South Korea Poland Hungary France Canada Belgium Australia Great Britain Spain Japan Germany Sweden 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 14st 9th Sweden 13nd 11th Germany 12rd 10th 10th Spain Japan GB 8th 9th Australia 11th 7th 6th Belgium 5th 12th France 4th Hungary 3th Poland 13th 2th South Korea US 14th 1th Italy

AVG. GUESS ACTUAL IN YOUR OPINION WHAT PERCENTAGE OF GIRLS AGED BETWEEN 15 AND 19 GIVE BIRTH EACH YEAR? % POINT DIFFERENCE TOO HIGH US Poland Italy Hungary Canada Great Britain Australia Germany South Korea Spain France Belgium Japan Sweden 24 3 18 1 17 0.5 16 2 15 14 0.4 13 0.2 12 0.6 11 0.7 8

% OF THE POPULATION DO YOU THINK ARE IMMIGRANTS TO THIS COUNTRY? AVG. GUESS ACTUAL IN YOUR OPINION WHAT % OF THE POPULATION DO YOU THINK ARE IMMIGRANTS TO THIS COUNTRY? % POINT DIFFERENCE TOO HIGH Italy US Belgium France Hungary Poland Canada Great Britain Spain Germany Japan South Korea Sweden Australia 30 7 32 13 29 10 28 16 2 14 0.4 35 21 24 23 12

100 PEOPLE ABOUT HOW MANY DO YOU THINK ARE MUSLIM? AVG. GUESS ACTUAL OUT OF EVERY 100 PEOPLE ABOUT HOW MANY DO YOU THINK ARE MUSLIM? % POINT DIFFERENCE TOO HIGH France Belgium Canada Australia Great Britain Italy US Spain Germany Sweden Hungary South Korea Poland Japan 31 8 29 6 20 2 18 21 5 4 15 1 16 19 17 7 0.4

100 PEOPLE ABOUT HOW MANY DO YOU THINK ARE CHRISTIAN? AVG. GUESS ACTUAL OUT OF EVERY 100 PEOPLE ABOUT HOW MANY DO YOU THINK ARE CHRISTIAN? % POINT DIFFERENCE TOO LOW TOO HIGH 42 29 11 2 62 53 58 69 83 49 63 77 79 94 67 85 46 64 48 39 59 56 78 South Korea Japan Hungary Germany Italy France Spain Poland Australia Belgium Sweden Great Britain Canada US

100 PEOPLE ABOUT HOW MANY DO YOU THINK ARE OVER 65? AVG. GUESS ACTUAL OUT OF EVERY 100 PEOPLE ABOUT HOW MANY DO YOU THINK ARE OVER 65? % POINT DIFFERENCE TOO HIGH Italy Poland Canada Spain Australia US Hungary Belgium France Great Britain Germany Japan South Korea Sweden 48 21 42 15 39 14 43 18 37 36 40 41 19 38 17 25 32 16 33

AVG. GUESS ACTUAL OUT OF EVERY 100 ELIGIBLE VOTERS ABOUT HOW MANY DO YOU THINK VOTED IN THE LAST ELECTION? % POINT DIFFERENCE TOO LOW France Italy Great Britain Hungary South Korea Japan Spain Germany Sweden Canada US Australia Poland Belgium 57 80 54 75 49 66 47 64 60 76 43 59 55 69 58 72 85 51 61 67 84 93 42 89

AVG. GUESS ACTUAL OUT OF EVERY 100 PEOPLE OF WORKING AGE ABOUT HOW MANY DO YOU THINK ARE UNEMPLOYED AND LOOKING FOR WORK? % POINT DIFFERENCE TOO HIGH Italy South Korea Hungary US Poland Belgium Spain France Australia Great Britain Sweden Canada Japan Germany 49 12 32 8 39 11 6 34 9 31 46 25 29 23 24 7 19 4 20

LIFE EXPECTANCY WILL BE OF A BORN IN 2014? AVG. GUESS ACTUAL WHAT DO YOU THINK THE LIFE EXPECTANCY WILL BE OF A BORN IN 2014? % POINT DIFFERENCE TOO LOW TOO HIGH South Korea Great Britain France Sweden Germany Belgium Spain Australia Canada US Japan Italy Poland Hungary 89 80 83 85 82 81 78 84 72 77 68 75

Looking at the data in a different way By plotting the data on a chart of average guess versus the actual figure we can see the scale of misperception and the real figures in each country. Looking at the data in a different way The dashed line on each chart is a 45 degree line. Countries above the line show where people have, on average, guessed too high while flags below show where people are too low compared with the actual figure. In very few cases the flag is on the dashed line, indicating a correct average guess by the population of a country. National Perceptions

% Girls aged between 15 and 19 years that give birth each year IN YOUR OPINION, WHAT PERCENTAGE OF GIRLS AGED BETWEEN 15 AND 19 YRS GIVE BIRTH EACH YEAR? People across the world hugely overestimate the proportion of teenagers aged 15-19 who give birth each year.. Average guess % % Girls aged between 15 and 19 years that give birth each year

% Immigrants to this country WHAT PERCENTAGE OF THE POPULATION DO YOU THINK ARE IMMIGRANTS TO THIS COUNTRY? Across the 14 countries, the public think immigration is over twice the actual level – the average guess is that 24% of the population was born abroad, when the actual figure is 11%. Average guess % % Immigrants to this country

OUT OF EVERY 100 PEOPLE ABOUT HOW MANY DO YOU THINK ARE MUSLIM? People massively overestimated the proportion of Muslims in every country. In France people guessed 31% of the population are Muslim, when the actual figure is only 8%. Average guess % % Muslims

OUT OF EVERY 100 PEOPLE ABOUT HOW MANY DO YOU THINK ARE CHRISTIAN? In contrast to the Muslim question, majority-Christian countries tend to underestimate how many people count themselves as Christian. Average guess % % Christians

OUT OF EVERY 100 PEOPLE ABOUT HOW MANY DO YOU THINK ARE OVER 65? The issue of an ageing population is overestimated across the study. In Italy people think nearly half the population (48%) are 65+, when it is actually 21%. Average guess % % Over 65

% Voted in last election OUT OF EVERY 100 ELIGIBLE VOTERS ABOUT HOW MANY DO YOU THINK ARE VOTED IN THE LAST ELECTION? Across the study people are pessimistic about democratic engagement. On average people guess that 58% voted in their last major election, when in fact 72% did. Average guess % % Voted in last election

% Unemployed and looking for work OUT OF EVERY 100 PEOPLE OF WORKING AGE ABOUT HOW MANY DO YOU THINK ARE UNEMPLOYED AND LOOKING FOR WORK? Unemployment is greatly overestimated without exception. In Italy, this is particularly apparent where the average guess is that 49% are unemployed, compared with an actual rate of 12%. Average guess % % Unemployed and looking for work

Average life expectancy WHAT DO YOU THINK THE LIFE EXPECTANCY WILL BE OF A CHILD BORN IN 2014? People across the study were much more perceptive about life-expectancy than most other areas. However some nations such as South Korea are too optimistic while Hungarians are too pessimistic. Average guess Average life expectancy

National Perceptions National Perceptions

Australia

% 15-19 girls that gave birth Aussies tend to be wrong when asked about the basic make-up of their population and the scale of key social issues such as immigration and unemployment. PERILS OF PERCEPTION IN AUSTRALIA Actual Average guess % Muslim % Unemployed % Immigrants % Over 65 % Christian % Voted % Life expectancy % 15-19 girls that gave birth

PERILS OF PERCEPTION IN AUSTRALIA IMMIGRATION According to official statistics the percentage of the Australian population that was born in another country is actually 28%. Why do you think the percentage is much higher? PERILS OF PERCEPTION IN AUSTRALIA People come into the country illegally so aren’t counted I still think the proportion is much higher What I see in my local area What I see when I visit other towns/cities I was just guessing Information seen on TV Information seen in newspapers The experiences of friends and family Other I misunderstood the question Don’t know IMMIGRATION Respondents who thought immigration was more than double the actual figure said the main reason they over-estimated is because they believe illegal immigrants enter the country without being counted % who thought immigration is 56% or more Base: Asked of all who said 56%

PERILS OF PERCEPTION IN AUSTRALIA CRIME Please tell me whether you think the following statement is true or false: The murder rate is rising in Australia