EEA Transport Scenarios

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EEA Transport Scenarios Images and pathways for sustainable transport in Europe by 2050 How can European road transport further reduce its environmental footprint? Dr. Peder Jensen Acting Head of Air and Climate Change Programme, EEA Peder.Jensen@eea.europa.eu

A decade of TERM reports 2010 1999

Environmental impact reduction strategies Impact = Transport volume * environmental efficiency Reduce transport volume Fewer trips Shorter trips Increase environmental efficiency More efficient vehicles More efficient transport modes Higher load factors Cleaner fuels

Reduce transport volume Fewer trips Activity level in society ICT developments Shorter trips Increased specialisation Spacial development driven

Increase environmental efficiency More efficient vehicles Cars and CO2 regulation Smaller vehicles NEDC More efficient transport modes Collective vs. Individual Flexibility Higher load factors Depends on fleet size and price Cleaner fuels Biofuels and electricity

Environmental impact reduction strategies Impact = Transport volume * environmental efficiency Reduce transport volume Fewer trips +/- Shorter trips - Increase environmental efficiency More efficient vehicles +/- More efficient transport modes - Higher load factors +/- Cleaner fuels +

EEA transport scenarios: - a user perspective Transport users do understand the challenge Transport users more ready to alter daily commute than long distance travel habits Transport users worried about equity impacts of higher transport prices Transport users asks policy makers to show leadership and be less concerned about a four year election cycle

Cars 1970 – 2010 – 2050

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