6. Conclusions/Discussion 3. Trends at UACOM - Phoenix Predictors of Primary Care Career Choice: A Review of AMCAS Applications of Four Graduating Classes At A New Medical School Alyssa Korenstein, MS3; Tara K Cunningham, EdD University of Arizona College of Medicine - Phoenix 1. Problem/Purpose 4. Design/Methods 5. Results 6. Conclusions/Discussion Problem: The U.S. is facing a shortage of primary care physicians, an issue that is particularly salient in Arizona. Purpose: Determine what factors from students’ medical school applications (AMCAS) may predict choice of primary care specialty. Retrospective review of all graduates of UACOM-Phoenix between 2011-2014, a total of 149 students. Preliminary analyses utilized independent t-tests for continuous variables and chi square for categorical variables. At this time, applicants grouped according to whether or not they pursued a career in primary care-overall. Greater number of siblings and having non-physician parents may be predictors for students who choose to enter a primary care field. Consistent with findings of Bland, et al (1995), which found having non-physician parents as being associated with primary care career choice.5 In order to meet the physician workforce needs, it is important for new and existing medical schools to consider these data when shaping admissions practices. Limitations: students who match into internal medicine or pediatrics may further subspecialize in a non-primary care field. Future Plans: Run analyses for each individual primary care specialty AMCAS APPLICATION VARIABLES Other: activities, personal statement Academics: college major, GPA, MCAT Demographics: gender, age, race, ethnicity, languages, family/community characteristics 2. Background Data Projected shortage of up to 90,000 physicians by the year 2025.1 Shortage will be even greater – and demand outpacing supply faster – for primary care than any other individual specialty.2 AZ ranks 3rd in growth of medical school enrollment, but 36th out of all states in number of active PCPs.3 Owen et al (2002): Single best predictor of career choice at graduation was the stated career preference at matriculation.4 Fig. 1: The primary care career group had a greater number of siblings (t(140)=2.51, p<.014) when compared with the non-primary care group. Error bars = SEM 7. Acknowledgements Special thanks to Tara Cunningham, EdD, Matthew McEchron, PhD, and the University of Arizona College of Medicine–Phoenix/Banner University Medical Center–Phoenix Department of Family Medicine. 3. Trends at UACOM - Phoenix NRMP OUTCOME 8. References 1. IHS Inc., The Complexities of Physician Supply and Demand: Projections from 2013 to 2025. Washington, DC: AAMC Center for Workforce Studies; 2015. 2. Dill M, Salsberg E. The Complexities of Physician Supply and Demand: Projections Through 2025. Washington, DC: AAMC Center for Workforce Studies; 2008. 3. 2013 State Physician Workforce Data Book. Washington, DC: AAMC Center for Workforce Studies; 2013. 4. Owen JA, Hayden GF, Connors AF ,Jr. Can medical school admission committee members predict which applicants will choose primary care careers? Acad Med. 2002;77(4):344-349. 5. Bland CJ, Meurer LN, Maldonado G. Determinants of primary care specialty choice: A non-statistical meta-analysis of the literature. Acad Med. 1995;70(7):620-641. PRIMARY CARE NON-PRIMARY CARE Fig. 2: The primary care group had a lower likelihood of having parents who are physicians (X2=5.35, P<.021)) when compared with the non-primary care group. Family Medicine Pediatrics Internal Medicine Medicine-Pediatrics No other variables have demonstrated statistically significant results