SA’s Demographic Dividend And Education Landscape Explored Did we take hold of the opportunity? Pali Lehohla Statistics South Africa

55 908 900 The South African population is estimated at up by 896 900 from 2015 estimates

The demographic dividend is the accelerated economic growth that may result from a decline in a country's mortality and fertility …..and the subsequent change in the age structure of the population. decline

Investigating Fertility and Mortality

On average, a woman will give birth to 2,43 On average, a woman will give birth to children in her lifetime Fertility has declined from an average of 2,65 children per woman in 2002 to 2,43 children per woman in 2016 Provided that current fertility behavior prevails Source Mid Year Estimates 2016

TFR Crude Birth Rate Peak in 2008 Fertility Source Mid Year Estimates 2016

Mortality Rate Infant mortality has declined from 48,2 infant deaths per 1 000 live births in 2002 to 33,7 infant deaths per 1 000 live births in 2016 The crude death rate is down from 12,9 deaths per 1 000 people in 2002 to 9,7 deaths per 1 000 people in 2016 Source Mid Year Estimates 2016

What's happened to the population structure?

Age structure based on CS 2016 Source CS 2016

Source CS 2016

So we have a the main ingredients for a Demographic Dividend.

However changes in age structure alone cannot provide a demographic dividend

The Gears Of Demographic Dividend Manage HIV/AIDS and fertility Provide skills, education Maintain an environment characterised by sound governance principles in an effort to build a stronger economy Create jobs

Focus on Education and The Economy

“The single most important investment any country can make is in its people.” National Development Plan

Between 1996 and 2016 we have seen significant changes in the education landscape

Source CS 2016

However the challenges of unemployment, especially amongst the youth continue

Source CS 2016

Unemployment is also strongly linked with educational attainment

Source CS 2016

Graduate Unemployment falls rapidly after age 25 Graduate unemployment for selected age groups Graduate Unemployment falls rapidly after age 25 Source Nesstar Data Retrieval: Quarterly Labour Force Survey (3rd Quarter 2016)

Tertiary education has remained elusive for the majority of the population

The enrolment vs participation Debate

African White Headcount enrolments by race from 2009 to 2014 Coloured Indian African White Source: VitalStats Public Higher Education 2014 from Council for Higher Education

Participation rates by gender from 2009 to 2014 * This is total headcount enrolment over the national population of 20-24 years old, calculated as a percentage. Source: VitalStats Public Higher Education 2014 from Council for Higher Education

two sides of the same coin? Viewed from the CS 2016 lens two sides of the same coin?

25% Source CS 2016

Blockages within Tertiary Education

30% graduated within regulation time for a 3 year degree Of the 2008 cohort of first-time entering students (excluding UNISA) 30% graduated within regulation time for a 3 year degree Source: VitalStats Public Higher Education 2014 from Council for Higher Education Adapted from http://www.che.ac.za/focus_areas/higher_education_data/2013/overview

Throughput comparison of 2007, 2008 and 2009 cohorts from regulation time up to n+3 years for 3-year degrees (excluding UNISA) Source: VitalStats Public Higher Education 2014 from Council for Higher Education

Course success rates* by race from 2009 to 2014 by Pop Group *The success rate refers to the total number of courses passed by students in a given academic year relative to course enrolments. Source: VitalStats Public Higher Education 2014 from Council for Higher Education

How has the South African workforce shifted in terms of skill levels since 1994?

There were much weaker gains in the black African group for all ages Percentage of workers in each age group who are skilled (managers, professionals, technicians) 1994 2014 The percentage of workers in skilled occupations increased in all age and all race groups, except for black Africans aged 25-34, which decreased There were much weaker gains in the black African group for all ages

The challenges to achieving the demographic dividend are also seen in the drivers of poverty

CS 2016

Main contributors to poverty amongst Youth (15-24) The major contributor to the poverty situation of the youth in South Africa is educational attainment. Source CS 2016

Does the nation see education as a challenge?

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