Demographic Issues Affecting Seafood Processing in Atlantic Canada Process Automation In Seafood Processing Workshop, Nov. 15, 2016 Jamie Ward, MSc Alvin Simms, PhD Dept. of Geography, Harris Centre RANLab St. John’s, NL Canada

Outline Seafood Processing in context Nature of demographic challenge Relative demographic condition vs. other industries Spatial distribution of industry Nature of demographic challenge Components of demographic change Causes of divergent rural/urban growth Short term outlook Data source: Statistics Canada

Occupations in Seafood Processing Atlantic Canada older than country as a whole Fish processing occupations generally older than provincial workforces Lower wages Source: 2011 NHS (Statistics Canada)

Sub-Provincial Geographies Data availability a concern Functional economic regions Region class types Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) vs. Non-CMA areas St. John’s Halifax Saint John Moncton

Functional Economic Regions All Census Sub-Divisions grouped into functional economic regions (FERs) according to commuting flows FERs then organized into 5 classes according to socio-economic characteristics, including: Population Industry Diversity Proximity to Urban Urban Pop. > 40,000 City/Regional Towns Pop. 8,000 – 40,000 First Order Rural Pop. 2,000 – 8,000 Second Order Rural Pop. 600 – 2,000 Third Order Rural Pop. <= 600 people Generally remote Freshwater, D., Simms, A. and J. Ward (2014) Local Labour Markets as a New Way of Organizing Policies for Stronger Regional Economic Development in Atlantic Canada, Leslie Harris Centre, Memorial University, St. John’s, NL

Functional Economic Regions

Geographic Distribution of Seafood Processing Primarily concentrated in intermediate-sized areas Demographic assessment should distinguish from large urban areas Source: Business Register (Dec. 2015)

Seafood Processing in Local Economies Seafood Processing is a large component of many rural economies Scale of replacement a concern

Local Demographic Differences Rural areas older than urban areas and provinces overall How did this happen? How likely will it reverse soon?

Population Trends, by Region Class Large shifts in younger cohorts over the past decade Older cohorts increasing

Components of Demographic Change Population Change = Births (+) In-migrants (+) Deaths (-) Out-migrants(-) Crude death rates have risen as population has aged, but unlikely to affect short term labour market situation Focus on birth rates and population retention

Births Total Fertility Rate (TFR) = Average # of babies born per woman, over her lifetime TFR is well below replacement (2.1)

Births Crude birth rates lower (and declining) outside of large urban areas Reliance upon in-migration for labour market stability and growth

Population Retention Loss of younger workforce acute problem for rural areas Particularly to within- province urban areas

Overview Industry is critical component of rural economies Workforce demand challenges Older workers than average = Urgency Large size of industry = Many people required Somewhat lower attractiveness (wages/seasonality/conditions) Workforce supply challenges Poor retention of young people Insufficient in-migration Long term below replacement birth rates Challenges magnified by issues endemic to rural locations Attracting foreign workers Youth retention