Sub-Saharan Africa’s Turn???

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Presentation transcript:

Sub-Saharan Africa’s Turn??? The accelerated economic growth of the demographic dividend remains a possibility for many African nations, but for the process to begin, countries must prioritize strategic investments to lower fertility (children per woman) and child mortality (deaths). Africa and the Demographic Dividend - Population Reference Bureau www.prb.org/Publications/Reports/2013/africa-demographic-dividend.aspx

Nigeria: Stuck in Stage 2 of Demographic Transition? http://euanmearns.com/goodluck-nigeria-a-failed-state/

Population

Future Economy Conventional Oil Remaining Figure 2 Nigeria’s troubles begin with an exponentially rising population that has almost trebled since 1970. GDP was static until the 2000s when rising energy prices combined with the start of gas exports in the late 1990s has helped significant growth. But per capita GDP still stands at just a little over $1000 ($US 2005) per annum Imperfect means of estimating ultimate recovery cumulative of about 52 billion barrels for Nigeria. With 31.7 billion barrels produced that leaves 20.3 billion barrels in remaining

Result Population continues to climb Export resource base may be in decline AIDS currently a problem but not overwhelming Demographic Dividend does not appear to be on the horizon “As long as fertility remains high and families have large numbers of children, sub-Saharan African countries are unlikely to see rising incomes or healthier and better-educated workers.” Bloom, Canning, Sevilla

Other nearby countries in similar demographic situation

South Africa Real Economic Growth Rate recent years

S. Africa: Possibly gaining from a Dividend 2050 Interactive pyramid http://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/south-africa-population-pyramid

Question Why does Africa vary so much? Does the the scourge of Slavery have anything to do with this?