Alebel B. Weldesilassie (PhD) EDRI Strategy options for climate resilient agricultural export commodities in Ethiopia: Adaptation Options Alebel B. Weldesilassie (PhD) EDRI alebel.bw@gmail.com January 2015

1. Introduction Identifying effective adaptation strategy requires: assessment of adaptation needs and options; assessment of adaptation opportunities and constraints, assessment of the costs and benefits the different adaptation options and planning and implementation. Assessment of adaptation options involves: identifying current and future climate change risk (hazards and extremes); climate and non – climate drivers of vulnerabilities to climate change impacts; and adaptation capacity (assessing opportunities and constraints) that reduces the risk and effective adaptation strategy to cope u with or reduce the anticipated risk.

1. Introduction … Our objective is to identify adaptation options for a climate resilient production of agricultural - based export commodities based on the different project components. We get answers for the following two policy questions: ‘what is the knowledge on climate change impacts, vulnerabilities and prospects of adaptation in the context of cotton and sugarcane in Ethiopia?’ 2. ‘What are the anticipated climate change risks and impacts that Ethiopia need to worry about in its cotton and sugarcane commodities i.e. what are the key risks and key vulnerabilities that we need to worry about?’.

1. Introduction … Unanswered policy question: ‘What should Ethiopia do to respond to the key risk and key vulnerabilities in the context of the two commodities?’ i.e. what are the adaptation options that reduce the impact or build a climate resilient production of the two commodities?’ This will be addressed in this study.

2. Impacts, vulnerability and risk Observed and projected climate change: Increase in mean annual temperature Change in amount of Rainfall, mostly decreased Shift of rainfall Seasonal and extension of rainy season (drier June & wet October and November) Alternative wet and dry days: increase in extreme wet and extreme dry

2. Impacts, vulnerability and risk Anticipated Impacts: Climate related hazards including drought and flood Water stress Change in growing time of cotton and sugarcane ‘change in crop variety’

2.2. Key vulnerability Vulnerable groups: Producers, processors, distributors, consumers, and ‘the export sector’ Non – climate drivers of vulnerability: Livelihood: Climate sensitive livelihood strategy Subsistence agriculture, Less intensification Less diversification Narrow sources of income: Farm income accounts for high share of total income Less income from non – farm business Low economic status: low asset base, low standards of living

2.2. Key vulnerability Demographic characteristics: Low human capital: high dependency ratio, young aged Low human capital: low year of schooling, less skill Limited institutional service: low access to credit, extension service, market information, improved technology, low access to infrastructure, etc Weak governance system: weak linkage among the different actors, absence of organized institutional set up

2.3. Key risks Damage to irrigation infrastructure Low productivity Loss of livelihood or asset Fail in to poverty Less adaptive capacity Decrease in welfare Less export income

3. Approach for identifying adaptation options “Top-down” and “Bottom-up” Approach: Top-down assessments of biophysical climate changes bottom-up assessments of vulnerability This approach combines: Scenario – based, Impact-based assessment, Vulnerability- and Adaptation Assessment This helps to identify the factors that determine the nature of, and vulnerability to, climate risks and assessment of adaptation option.

4. Selection criteria of adaptation option Effective in reducing vulnerability and increasing resilience Equitable, especially to vulnerable groups Mainstreamed / integrated with broader social goals, programs, and activities of the country Stakeholder participation, engagement and support Sustainable: environmental and institutional sustainability

1. Structural /physical: 5. Adaptation options The proposed adaptation options are categorized in to: 1. Structural /physical: Infrastructure/Engineering and built environment Technological Ecosystem based services 2. Social Educational Informational Gender equality 3. Economic: livelihood diversification; Provision of Public service 4. Institutional and governance

Adaptation options … Adaptation options Purpose/Advantage 1   Adaptation options Purpose/Advantage 1 Structural /physical 1.1. Infrastructure/Engineering and built environment A. Upgrading the existing infrastructure of the Awash river bank to improve flooding resilience of the river so as to protect sugarcane farms/plantation and its irrigation infrastructure. B. New engineering infrastructure development: Construction of multi-purpose reservoirs and rainwater harvesting systems, C. Road development. help to build the resilience of the river bank and irrigation infrastructure at the time of flooding B. to supplement irrigation during a decrease in rainfall in Belg and Kiremit by conserving the excess water during increase in rain due to increase in the amount of rain and rainy days in Bega. C. Increase access to market

Adaptation option… Adaptation option Purpose/advantage 1.2. Technological Efficient irrigation method:   b. Drought resistant varieties: c. Integrated improved practices. This includes Adjusting planting time and intercropping; Conservation tillage practice; integrated nutrient management and integrated pest management. a. to improve water use efficiency to deal with a decrease in rainfall in Bega and Kiremit. b. used to deal with a decrease in rainfall and the change in climate (both reduction in rainfall and increase in temperature). c. used to deal with delay in rainy season and extension of rainy period deals with problems related to when the total number of rainy days is higher but the distribution is poor. Also, used during a decrease in rain and increase in temperature

Adaptation option… Use of Information Technology Purpose/advantage Technological Use of Information Technology disseminate climate and other relevant information from top to bottom such as weather forecasts, hazard warnings, market information, etc disseminate information from bottom – up process. 1.3 Ecosystem based services Natural resource conservation and management Watershed management approach Build the natural asset Used for sustainable use of the natural capital

Adaptation option … Adaptation option Purpose/advantage 2 Social 2.1 Educational a. awareness raising and integrating in to education, knowledge sharing and learning platform, communication through media Used to build the adaptive capacity of actors 2.2. Informational: a. Provide early warning and response system, b. provision of meteorological information, c. develop well organized longitudinal dataset system, d. integrating indigenous climate observation Minimize risk specially at the time of climate related hazards such as drought and flood Generate systematic information for decision making and build the adaptive capacity of the different actors and create a resilient 2.3 Gender equality promote gender equality among both male and women; behavioural change, Used to minimize risks to more vulnerable groups like female headed households and build the resilience of women working in textile factory, rural women

Adaptation options … Adaptation option Purpose/advantage 3 Economic 3.1. livelihood diversification skill development, b. promote saving behaviour for investment; promote market oriented business practices - build the resilience of vulnerable groups by increasing their adaptive capacity Diversify their income sources Shift in livelihood strategy from climate sensitive to less sensitive sectors 3.2 Public services a. Provision of basic services (water, sanitation, solid waste disposal, power, and public transportation). - Increase adaptive capacity by minimizing the non – climate change drivers of vulnerability

Institutional and governance Adaptation option … Adaptation option Purpose/advantage 4 Institutional and governance 4.1 Institutional a. Establish functional and robust climate change monitoring system b. Develop Flood and Drought early warning systems - Improve information generation and minimize risk c. Establish functional collaboration among key stakeholders: cultivators, industries, agricultural universities and research institutions - Build a strong institutional linkage and facilitate information exchange and work to a common goal c. Improve institutional support: access to extension service; access to finance for micro business development; weather – based insurance; financial incentives for large scale cotton producers; Deals with drivers of non – climate vulnerability by increasing productivity, non – farm income; build a competitive market power for producers

Institutional and governance Adaptation options Adaptation option Purpose/advantage 4 Institutional and governance 4.2 Governance Create strong linkage among cotton producers, textile processors, Organize smallholder weavers and ginner association; Research system in cotton; research system in sugarcane. Build institutional capacity of the research system by establishing/strengthening cotton and sugarcane research, train human resources and linking with producers, processors & distributors Build adaptive capacity along the value chain by creating strong linkage and build their capacity through generating and disseminating relevant information

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