BUILDING A GRADUATION NATION-Colorado Donnell-Kay and Piton Foundation Hot Lunch Presentation Nov. 21, 2008 Robert Balfanz Everyone Graduates Center Johns Hopkins University

The Nation’s and Colorado’s Graduation Rate Crisis Is an Economic Drain-In the 21st Century Economic Growth is Driven by Human Capital-HS Dropouts are a net cost Is the Engine of the Under-class-idleness rates-(neither in school nor the labor market) of 18 to 24 year old high school dropouts can approach 50% If left unaddressed threatens the nation’s social fabric as it will create communities cut off from full participation in American society

Solving the Graduation Rate Crisis Will ultimately pay for itself in increased tax revenues and decreased social welfare costs Enable accelerated economic growth Reduce Crime Increase Social Justice In Other words-the equivalent of the public policy triple crown

And the Good News is it’s Doable

Solving the Graduation Rate Crisis: Five Components Know who, when, where, and why students are dropping out Transform schools Develop comprehensive student support systems (in and out of school) Establish supportive policies and resource allocations Build community will and capacity

Know who, when, where and why students are dropping out

COLORADO’S GRADUATION CHALLENGE Class of 2005-18,000 more 9th-graders than diplomas Class of 2005-6,000 more 12th-graders than diplomas

4 Main Types of Dropouts Life events (forces outside of school cause students to drop out) Fade Outs (students do OK in school but stop seeing a reason for staying) Push Outs (students who are or perceived to be detrimental to others in the school) Failing in school, schools failing students

Each Requires a Different Strategy

Failing to Succeed in School In high poverty environments, these students typically constitute the majority of dropouts Are easily identifiable using data routinely collected by schools Can be identified at key junctures of secondary school when their odds for success are about to take a turn for the worse Often persist in school for a long time before dropping out, despite years of struggles

Major Finding Students in high poverty school districts who successfully navigate grades 6 to 10 on time and on track, by and large, graduate from high school (75% or higher grad rates) Students in high poverty school districts who struggle and become disengaged in the early secondary grades and particularly those who have an unsuccessful 6th and/or 9th grade transition do not graduate (20% or less grad rates)

Students are Knocked Off Course in the Early Secondary Grades by the ABCs Attendance Behavior Course Failure

Effective Interventions and Proven Models Exist

What we face is a giant engineering challenge of getting the right interventions to the right students at the right time with the required intensity

Four steps toward achieving this

Step 1 Comprehensive, systematic and sustained whole school reforms that address attendance, behavior, and course performance Limited reforms or partial implementation will lead to limited or partial success

AT EACH KEY TRANSITION CONSIDER BOTH ACADEMIC AND SOCIAL NEEDS Elementary Grades-Basic Academic Skills and Knowledge and socialized into the norms of schooling in a joyful manner Middle Grades - Intermediate academic skills (reading comprehension and fluency, transition from arithmetic to mathematics) and a need for adventure and camaraderie High School - Transition to adult behaviors and mind set and a path to college and career readiness, as well as the right extra help for students with below grade level skills

Step 2 Link Early Warning Systems to Interventions Need to be able to respond to the first signs that a student is falling off track Systematically apply school-wide preventative, targeted and intensive interventions until student is on-track Great place to use national service organizations (City Year, Americorps) to provide mentoring, tutoring, homework support, and managing attendance and behavior programs at the needed scale for an affordable price Need integrated student support providers (e.g. Communities in Schools) to bring in and monitor case-managed professional supports for the most in need students

Step 3 Involve the Community Community-specific data analysis to establish how many students drop out, when and why to enable reforms to be targeted at the right students at the right scale and intensity A community compact-multi-year plan to end the dropout crisis Community can provide program managers not just incentives Work with social service providers to coordinate efforts and make the case for investing social service dollars in school prevention efforts.

Step 4 Are Existing Policies and Practices Supportive of Graduation For All Attendance, grading, suspension, grade promotion, and credit polices can implicitly and explicitly, knowingly and unknowingly enable or work against graduation for all Need to conduct a policy audit at school, school district, and state levels

Fade Outs Not easy to predict but don’t usually constitute the majority of dropouts. Sometimes leave as late as the 12th grade only a few credits shy of graduation. Often regret dropping out soon after they do. Many call it the worst decision of their lives. Substantial numbers try to re-enter educational system. Often need rapid credit acquisition opportunities linked with work opportunities. Many need stronger college and career linkages to drive home the connection between high school graduation and future success.

Life Events Often have very low graduation rates Do not typically constitute the majority of dropouts Need second chance opportunities and enhanced social supports to overcome life event

In large cities the social safety net is not working

Final Steps: 1. Resource Allocation Need to integrate all youth development efforts toward keeping students on the graduation path college and career ready Need to make sure that sufficient resources- human, social, and financial-are available to provide the scale of student supports required Need to make data based decisions on resource allocation; need to take degree of educational difficulty into account as well as number and concentration of students in need of which supports

Final Steps: 2. Community Compacts Communities bear the costs of the dropout crisis. they need to be part of the solution Need a 5 to 10 year commitment Need to bring together multiple sectors Need data based plans and on-going evaluation

Colorado on the Cutting Edge: Statewide Dropout Initiative: Five District Data Analysis

Background to Study Governor Ritter declares goal of decreasing the dropout rate in Colorado 50% in ten years and establishes P-20 council to include subcommittee to examine dropout prevention and recovery Several foundations establish Statewide Dropout Initiative, including Colorado Children’s Campaign Colorado Foundation for Families and Children Colorado Youth for a Change Donnell-Kay Foundation Five Colorado districts agree to participate in a data analysis initiative with Johns Hopkins University. which includes leaders from several Colorado school districts, direct-service organizations, advocacy organizations, researchers, Colorado Children’s Campaign, Colorado Foundation for Families and Children, Colorado Youth for a Change, and the Center for Social Organization of Schools at Johns Hopkins University, as well as other governmental, business, and community partners.

Research Questions: How can understanding the behavioral characteristics of dropouts in the Colorado districts help inform efforts for dropout prevention and recovery? To what extent are current 9th graders and MS students displaying warning signals of a potential dropout outcome?

Description of Research Study Analysis used de-identified student level administrative data from districts Followed 2006-07 secondary students back in time 4 years Constructed cohort of 2003-04 9th graders when possible and followed forward to on-time graduation year (2006-07) to examine student outcomes Identified characteristics distinguishing dropouts from graduates and others still in school Examined dropout risk factors for current middle school and 9th grade students

Focused on Behavioral Warning Signals To what extent are dropouts giving signals (even years in advance) that they are at risk of not graduating? To what extent is a dropout outcome related to the ABCs identified in prior research: Attendance Behavior Course Failure To what extent are current middle school and 9th grade students displaying early warning signals through problems in these ABCs?

Summary of Findings Most dropouts are giving warning signals even years in advance Majorities of dropouts have at least one 9th grade semester failure (to some extent related to attendance and academic proficiency) Failing even one or two semester courses in 9th grade dramatically reduces probability of on-time graduation Dropouts have higher levels of suspensions than others, but this is not as strong a predictor of dropping out as course failure and attendance

Recommendations Need to implement early warning systems and tiered interventions in middle school and 9th grade, with follow-through in later grades Reduction of the dropout rate will demand a commitment to providing recovery options within courses, before failure occurs (rather than only afterwards) Interdisciplinary teams need to meet regularly to analyze student data, devise solutions, and monitor progress Interventions to improve attendance and behavior must allow for continued in-school learning Need comprehensive approach that has integrated prevention, intervention, and recovery elements and at the scale and scope required to cut the dropout rate in half (or by more).

TO LEARN MORE * READ “WHAT YOUR COMMUNITY CAN DO TO END ITS DROPOUT CRISIS” * USE “GRAD NATION GUIDEBOOK” FROM THE AMERICA’S PROMISE ALLIANCE * VISIT WWW.EVERY1GRADUATES.ORG * E-MAIL RBALFANZ@CSOS.JHU.EDU