Your City Boundaries: Are They Correct? League of Cities City Auditors Workshop August 16, 2016

Agenda The Challenges Current Work Accuracy Data flow Inventory Map Discussions Next steps

The Challenges City boundaries need to be accurate Data flow 9-1-1 Money Census Data flow The copy of your data at the State and Census Bureau may not be accurate Efficiencies are needed Neither Census nor the State necessarily have the correct boundaries for your city. We want to fix that.

Challenge: 9-1-1 This is where this issue first came about

Challenge: 9-1-1 ND 9-1-1 Assoc: http://nd911.homestead.com/NG911.html Boundaries are needed for accurate NG911 dispatch ND 9-1-1 Assoc: http://nd911.homestead.com/NG911.html ND Assoc. of Counties: http://www.ndaco.org/programs_and_services/911

Challenge: Money This slide indicates the magnitude of the effect of bad boundaries

Challenge: Money SST

Challenge: Census (and Money) Census info used for the census that occurs every 10 years which then translates into legislative redistricting and federal funding of education programs and other programs Census info also used every year for estimates , e.g., the state uses it for distribution of state aid ND Census Office: https://www.commerce.nd.gov/census

Challenge: Data Flow Current & efficient workflow Format Current state Future state Format Digital GIS is much preferred PDF is OK as a last resort Current state – to state (DOT) and to CB – not all consistent – not being critical of anyone or current process – it’s just that now our needs have increased Future state – send to state and CB as the updates become available - automation Paper – accuracy concern and additional work for someone to translate paper to digital

Current Work Assessing the issue Discussions with stakeholders Inventory Comparison map Discussions with stakeholders Planning next steps Already a number of counties have indicated that this might be possible – but case by case. Also, perhaps the state?

Inventory Compare Census and NDDOT Quantify differences – set priorities Used the spreadsheet to quantify the differences from data sources, beginning with Census and NDDOT Want to get the two synced up AND be sure we have the correct boundary The map we’ll see next is related to this

Comparison Map Find your city: zoom/pan or search Add GIS Hub imagery for latest view This map can be found on the GIS web site under resources – NOTE THAT THESE ISSUES ARE BEING WORKED IE IN SOME CASES THE DATA HAS RECENTLY BEEN SUBMITTED TO CENSUS Do a demo – show zoom/pan and search Add Hub imagery to help show where housing is being missed Review some map discrepancies – look at your city – go through examples, e.g. (- = big residential error, + = big goof) -belfield -buffalo +dawson +fortuna -hannaford +Haynes -killdeer +landa +oriska -oxbow +sheldon -stanley -venturia -watford city

Other States At the April 2016 MidAmerica GIS Consortium – other states are in the same boat, we are not alone

Discussions and Meetings Department of Emergency Services Department of Commerce Tax Department Department of Transportation Association of Counties League of Cities Association of Assessing Officers Recorders Association U.S. Census Bureau

Census Bureau Proper boundaries are critical Housing counts have biggest impact Multiple partnership opportunities City, county, or state contribution When desired, consolidation is possible County collects all city info for Census E.g., Burleigh, Cass, McLean State collects all info for Census Already a number of counties have indicated that this might be possible – but case by case. Also, perhaps the state? http://www.census.gov/geo/partnerships/bas/bas_cca.html

Census Bureau This is think is one of the most important things that cities/counties need to send to the census – building block for census and is what we need for NG911 and Sales Tax collections

Next Steps – State Level Develop plan for fixing errors Develop plan for staying current Possible legislation Includes data flow Define roles Stay engaged with Census Bureau Critical they have correct data Assist in their data requests and needs Start with those boundaries having largest discrepancies Possible legislation: remain mindful to MINIMIZE impact to data providers!

Next Steps – County & City Level Compare your data to Hub & Census Discrepancy? Contact Bob Near future: Ensure GIS data is part of the process Include with data from vendor Stay engaged with Census Bureau Critical they have correct data Respond to their requests Start with those boundaries having largest discrepancies Possible legislation: remain mindful to MINIMIZE impact to data providers!

Thank You! Bob Nutsch, GIS Coordinator 701-328-3212 bnutsch@nd.gov Twitter: @BobNutsch www.nd.gov/gis Map and Census Presentation: https://www.nd.gov/itd/statewide- alliances/gis/resources/us-census-partnership

Importance of Responding to Census Bureau Surveys 08/16/16 Importance of Responding to Census Bureau Surveys To Auditors, ND League of Cities Kevin Iverson, Census Office Manager 328-5385 /ExperienceND /ExperienceND /ExperienceND www.NDCommerce.com

Population Estimate Process Based upon Count of Residents and Housing Units in last Census (2010) Change since Decennial Census at State and County Level use Administrative Data to determine change in resident count Vital Statistics Federal Tax Returns Medicare Enrollment Below county level Distributive method based upon changes in Group Quarters and Housing Count

Population Estimate Process Key Surveys Impacting Changes in Housing Unit Count Boundary and Annexation Survey - Changes to geography of the city Mention Williston Building Permit Survey - Used to estimate housing unit inventory - Housing estimates tend to be relatively accurate when cities report building permit numbers - When cities do not respond imputed estimate is created based upon similar sized cities in the region

Census Bureau Building Permit Survey 2015 357 Cities in North Dakota 217 Cities surveyed 140 Cities not surveyed (smaller or opted out) ---{ 164 responded { 53 did not responded

Building Permit Survey Estimate 2015 Data North Dakota Estimated Building Permits 6,256 Total Reported Building Permits in Cities 5,180 98.1 % 1.9 % 100.0 % Total Imputed Building Permits in Cities 84 Total Building Estimated Permits in Cities 5,278

Census Bureau Building Permit Survey All Cities in North Dakota Pop Change 2010 - 2015 Respond Do Not Participate/ Respond All Gain 85 65 150 Held 12 35 47 Lost 67 93 160 Total: 164 193 357

Census Bureau Building Permit Survey All Cities in North Dakota Pop Change 2010 - 2015 Respond Do Not Participate/ Respond All Gain 52% 34% 42% Held 7% 18% 13% Lost 41% 48% 45%

Census Bureau Building Permit Survey Cities Surveyed 2010 - 2015 Less those in Counties Losing Population Pop Change 2010 - 2015 Responded Did Not Respond All Gain 80 22 102 Held 10 2 12 Lost 31 41 121 34 155

Census Bureau Building Permit Survey Cities Surveyed 2010 - 2015 Less those in Counties Losing Population Pop Change 2010 - 2015 Responded Did Not Respond All Gain 66% 65% Held 8% 6% Lost 26% 29% Average Percentage Growth 11.6% 4.1% 10.0%

State Aid to Cities North Dakota Aid Distributions to Cities (not Counties) ~$48 million per year - Based upon most recent available population estimate - Errors in estimate likely continue forward without correction until next census (i.e. errors in 2015 will impact estimate from 2016 through 2020)

State Aid to Cities - State Aid to Cities ~ $75 per resident per year in 2016 - $75 X 5 = ~$375 per resident not estimated in 2015 impact 2016 - 2020 - Average household size of 2.12 person per household or $375 X 2.12 = $795 2016 - 2020 - Cost of not reporting 10 housing units in 2015 estimated ~$7,950 thru 2020 - 10 housing units = two duplexes and one 6 unit apartment building

Tale of Two Cities in Crosby County, ND Southland Northland Cumulative State Financial Aid (2016 Figures) 2016 - 2020 $431,701 $390,958 $40,743 Census Actual Popula-tion Actual Percent Growth 2010 2015 2010 - 15 Crosby County 3,000 3,234 7.8% Northland 1,000 1,100 10.0% Southland Balance of County 1,034 3.4% Beginn-ing Housing Count 1,350 450 Popula-tion Estimate 2015 3,234 1,151 1,036 1,040 Actual Construc-tion 96 48 Report Building Permits _ Yes No Estimated Building Permits Total Estimated Housing 48 498 1 451 450 State Financial Aid 2016 ( ~$75 per resident) Northland $86,340 Southland $78,192 Difference $8,149 Northland gives their auditor a 3 % pay raise! Southland does not!

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