Understanding Stagflation – By Prof. Simply Simple

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Understanding Stagflation – By Prof. Simply Simple

Presentation transcript:

Understanding Stagflation – By Prof. Simply Simple While we are perhaps overexposed to the term “inflation”, it would be interesting to understand the concept of stagflation in this context. In the next few slides let me try and explain the same to you.

What is Stagflation? While inflation refers to rising prices in a growing economy, stagflation takes place when price rises are accompanied by a stagnant economy. Thus in stagflation: Prices of goods rise Economy does not exhibit growth Hence employment & consumption both dwindle While inflation, which seems to be making all the news is bad; stagflation is a lot worse.

A balancing act In this context, you will understand the role that the RBI Governor plays and the criticality of his role. While the RBI, through its monetary policy aims to rein in inflation by increasing interest rates and CRR rates, it has to do a balancing act to ensure that the measures being enforced do not strangle economic growth and send the economy into stagflation.

While this may not be such a big problem for an economy like India which still has substantial growth potential in spite of inflation; for countries growing at 1% to 2%, the balancing act by the central bank gets extremely crucial to prevent the economy from slipping into stagflation.

This is why we describe the Indian economy as being robust, based on sound fundamentals of consumption potential which, in a sense, hedge the economy from the forces of stagflation.

What is the remedy for stagflation? Removal of structural bottlenecks by introducing reforms would help unlock the economy’s growth potential. Along with introducing reforms, tightening of monetary screws by the central bank can further stir the economy out of stagflation.

Recession can be held at bay by lowering interest rates, while inflation is usually tamed by raising interest rates. Given the impossibility of pursuing both courses of action simultaneously, priorities come into play. This is where the actions of the RBI become crucial. Historically, inflation has been considered the greater long term economic menace and has therefore been dealt with first but taking care that the growth engine is not derailed leading to stagflation. As our economic growth is based on strong fundamentals, we need not fear stagflation but need to overcome inflationary forces. To Sum Up

Hope you have now understood the concept of Stagflation In case of any query, please e-mail lchaturvedi@tataamc.com