NS4540 Winter Term 2017 Latin America/U.S. Changing Relationship Reyes and Sawyer, Second Edition chapter 1

Overview Frida Ghitis, Why Trump’s Rise is Sending Latin America into China’s Arms, World Politics Review, February 2, 2017 Too early to make pronouncements, but tensions between U.S. and Mexico may have wide-spread effects Latin leaders concerned Trump administration will unleash new headwinds for region where many countries are facing mounting difficulties Has spurred renewed determination to look for alternatives to the partnership with the U.S. U.S. now viewed as unreliable and unpredictable China now accelerating its push into region Transformation will have economic, political, diplomatic and also strategic ramifications

China/Latin America I Traditionally, China viewed Latin America as a source of raw materials During Obama administration which paid limited attention to the region, China surpassed the U.S. as the top trading partner of many Latin American countries Under Trump, trend likely to continue, but will be transformed into much more than just trade Has potential to cause enormous losses to U.S. businesses, and Washington’s diplomatic and even security ties with hemispheric neighbors China still wants to buy Latin American commodities but now also wants to become the region’s go-to partner on a range of issues May displace Washing as the country with the most influence and deepest ties

Rise of China as a Trade Power Red leading trade partner, orange second trade power yellow – third or lower 000-New-263

China/Latin America II Just after the U.S. election, Chinese president Xi Jinping traveled to South America meeting with several heads of state as part of China’s goal of doubling trade and investing in the region High ranking Chinese officials have just been to Mexico – two countries pledged to deepen relations and help Mexico diversifying its trade partnerships Mixed feeling on part of some countries – China has a poor track record on issues such as environment, labor conventions, human rights and anti-corruption practices

China/Latin America III Implications of this shift from U.S. to China far reaching Argentina poised to strengthen ties with the U.S. after the anti-American Kirchner regime However Argentina’s exporters already facing new obstacles from Trump’s protectionist agenda Argentina farmers already facing a White House ordered delay on importation of some agricultural products Supposed to have gone into effect after a decade of bilateral trade talks

China/Latin America IV Meanwhile China pumping tens of billions of dollars into infrastructure projects and buying stakes in every sector in economy from mining to banking Means U.S. businesses will find fewer opportunities, and U.S. may find a less supportive country in international forums in which it stands at odds with China The Argentina-China link has already resulted in Argentina buying a billion dollars’ worth of Chinese military equipment China now has a satellite-tracking system in remote region of Argentina run by Chinese military personnel Argentine example is one of the less dramatic ones Countries like Venezuela, Ecuador and Nicaragua even more closely tied to China

China/Latin America V Early in Trump administration and a course correction cannot be ruled out Early signs however point to a strengthening of ties between China and Latin America and a new loss for the U.S.