Global Economy Booming

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Presentation transcript:

Global Economy Booming Looks everything positive? 22 September 2017

Macro Outlook

Dow Jones Index at record high Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream

World Trade continues to grow Index: 1998=100 2017H1: +3.8% YoY Source: CPB

OECD Leading Indicator indicates positive GDP growth in OECD OECD Leading Indicator versus OECD GDP (1979-1983) OECD Leading Indicator versus OECD GDP (1989-1993) OECD Leading Indicator versus OECD GDP (2000-2003) OECD Leading Indicator versus OECD GDP (2007-2017) Source: OECD

World GDP growth improves in 2017-2020 compared to 2016 Source: IMF World Economic Outlook April 2017, July 2017

Seaborne Trade

Seaborne traded dominated by iron ore, coal, containers, crude oil Global fleet divided by type of vessel (start of 2017) Seaborne trade in 2016 divided by product group Source: Clarkson Research

Seaborne trade growth rate has decelerated Source: IMF, Clarkson Research, Rabobank

Energy Transition

Offshore Wind has strong tail wind EUR/MWh 2017H1: +3.8% YoY Source: Van Oord, Dong Energy, Dutch government

EU’s gasoline & diesel demand peaked in 2006 M toe Source: BP Statistical Review 2017

Conclusions

Structural changes happening Period 1990-2015 Period 2016-2040E Global population growth Population growth slowing down Number of consumers rising Ageing consumers and behaviour Globalisation of production Reshoring production Lengthening supply chains Shortening supply chains Fossil fuel growth Growth renewable energy Source: Danish Ship Finance

Seaborne trade growth rate low: Steel industry; Energy transition CAGR (%) 1987-2016 1987-1996 1997-2006 2007-2016 2010-2020E 2020-2030E 2030-2040E Population 1.4 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.7 World GDP 3.4 2.7 4.1 3.6 3.2 2.8 World trade 5.6 6.4 6.9 3.8 n/a Seaborne trade 3.7 4.3 3.1 0.8 Air Cargo 5.2 7.9 5.5 2.3 3.0 4.2 GDP/Population 2.4x 1.7x 3.2x 3.0x 3.3x 3.6x 4.0x Seaborne/GDP 1.1x 1.4x 0.9x 0.8x 0.4x 0.3x Seaborne/Population 2.6x 2.3x 2.5x 1.2x Source: IMF, Clarkson Research, Boeing, UN, Rabobank

Growth Dutch road haulage & inland shipping below GDP Index

Growth EU road haulage below GDP Index Hardly any data on Rail available