Roland Minton Roanoke College Golf by the Numbers, JHU Press

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Presentation transcript:

Roland Minton Roanoke College Golf by the Numbers, JHU Press Data Mining Cave-Ins Roland Minton Roanoke College Golf by the Numbers, JHU Press

System of volunteers and lasers 1.2 million shots (20,000 rounds) per year, 2004-present PGA Tour events only

15, 3,03,155,01,S,TeeBox,,Green, {R,PGATOUR,2008,380,01035,745,027, Tommy,Armour III,01,The Barclays,Ridgewood Country Club, 15, 3,03,155,01,S,TeeBox,,Green, Unknown,05171,05400,N,N,, 00000000228,0907,Good,With,Level, 9,922.2740, 8,232.4720, 74.6350,00022,00000}

Where Did the Ball Stop? It started 5171 inches away. It traveled 5400 inches. It ended 228 inches away. The ball went too far (long). The ball was not on line.

Where Did the Ball Stop?

Where Did the Ball Stop?

Where Did the Ball Stop?

Da Secret Code It actually is the result of rounding. When I “unrounded” the data,

Da Secret Code The inner branch is approximately

Da Secret Code If B changes to B – 1 and x = 0, Assume that B, d about the same, and convert to feet.

Coming Up Short Means of y-values

Different Strokes Std deviations of y-values

Going Offline Std. Dev. of |x|-values Means of |x|-values

Correlations Sort the data by tournament. Correlate percentage of putts made from a given distance and score. The first time I did this I got

Correlations From 0-3 feet, -.150 From 3-4 feet, -.104

Correlations From 20-25 feet, the scatter plot is

Correlations When only those who made the cut were included in the calculation, From 15-20 feet, -.051 From 20-25 feet, -.008 From 25-30 feet, -.096 What does this mean?

Correlations

Lake Wobegon Open Ranking system for bunker (sand) play: For given player, for each bunker shot Compare “score” to “average score”. Add up all differences and divide by total number of bunker shots.

Lake Wobegon Open Compare “score” to “average score”. Distance before B, distance after A Replace A with tour avg. # putts from A Find tour avg. distance after from B Replace with tour avg. # putts Difference is value of shot.

Lake Wobegon Open Ranking of tour players looks right. In 2008, #1 Mike Weir 0.147 The sum of all the ratings is 1.084. (These guys are good!) So A – A > 0 !

Lake Wobegon Open Two problems with averaging. 1) The function avgputts(d) is not linear but is concave down. So 5 feet better beats 5 feet worse.

Lake Wobegon Open Two problems with averaging. 2) “All” is not the same as “all.” The tour average is ALL shots, but I only computed ratings for the most active 230 players. For this type of shot, the regular players are better than the irregulars.

Any Questions?