NASA Drought Project Meeting 29 September 2008 National Drought Monitoring System for Drought Early Warning Using Hydrologic and Ecologic Observations from NASA Satellite Data Presentation by S. V. Nghiem Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology 4800 Oak Grove Drive Pasadena, CA 91109 Son.V.Nghiem@jpl.nasa.gov

Investigator Team • Brakenridge, G.R.: Dartmouth College • Dole, R.: NOAA Physical Science Division • Le Comte, D.: NOAA Climate Prediction Center • Njoku, E. G.: Jet Propulsion Laboratory • Verdin, J.: U.S. Geological Survey • Wilhite, D.: National Drought Mitigation Center • Nghiem, S.: Jet Propulsion Laboratory Advisory Board: D. Entekhabi (MIT), D. Hall (NASA GSFC), P. Houser (George Mason U.), A. Huete (U. Arizona), G. Leshkevich (NOAA GLERL), K. Steffen (U. Colorado/CIRES), and P. Whung (USDA).

Overall Objectives National Drought Monitoring System (NDMS) Drought monitoring and forecast Enhancing U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) Utilizing NASA satellite data/results: AMSR-E microwave radiometer, QuikSCAT microwave scatterometer, MODIS spectro-radiometer, and ASTER radiometer Integrating with diverse indicators to monitor major components of hydrologic and ecologic system Prototype demonstration and validation Near-term goal: Applications to NIDIS. Long-term goal: Expandable to GEOSS.

National Drought Monitoring System Using NASA Data/Results – Wiring Diagram QuikSCAT AMSR-E ASTER Terra & Aqua MODIS Receiving Stations Receiving Stations Receiving Stations Soil Moisture Change Algorithm NDVI Algorithm Soil Moisture Algorithm NDVI Algorithm Reservoir Algorithm JPL Data System USGS Data System DFO Data System Surface Obs Networks Climatic Data US DROUGHT MONITOR NDMC, NOAA, USGS, … V&V

Integrated System Solution: National Drought Information System NASA Water Management Project: National Drought Monitoring System Earth System Satellite Algorithms AMSR-E algorithms (JPL) Soil moisture Vegetation water content QuikSCAT algorithms (JPL) Precipitation water change on land surface Precipitation frequency Experimental NDVI MODIS/ASTER algorithms Vegetation indices (USGS) Lake/reservoir area (DFO) Predictions/Forecasts Decision Support Systems, Assessments, Management Actions National Integrated Drought Information System US Drought Monitor Weekly map and web portal Analyses and Forecast Early Drought Detection Drought Spatial Extent Drought State/Drought Severity Drought duration Decisions / Actions Drought Plans Activated Urban Water Restrictions Drought Assistance Programs Agricultural Choices for Water Conservation Information products Water Monitoring Soil moisture change Precipitation frequency Lake/reservoir change Vegetation Monitoring Vegetation Indices Season start Season length Drought Indices Palmer Drought index Standardized Precipitation Index Stream flow percentile Soil moisture percentile Drought indicator blend Value & Benefits to Society Quantitative and qualitative benefits from improved decisions Wider dissemination of drought information Improved understanding of drought effects at sub- county scale Quicker response for State Drought Task Forces and State Governors Increased spatial precision in drought emergency designations Better informed state and local decision making leading to more effective use of available water and drought relief program resources Earth Observations NASA Satellite Data: - AMSR-E Radiometer - QuikSCATScatterometer MODIS Spectroradiometer ASTER Radiometer Surface Data: - Weather station networks Soil moisture : SCAN Network, SNOTEL Network - Long-term stations - Surface radars Observations, Parameters & Products

Status and Progress Three-year project: Year-1 completed; Year-2 extended to 3/31/2009; Year-3 may have delay. JPL Year 2: Providing QuikSCAT soil moisture change (SMC) data for drought applications: data for entire CONUS, daily data production, >80% coverage of CONUS per day, and automated routine upload processor is ready. (AMSR-E soil moisture data available from NSIDC). Resolution benchmarking: SMC data gridded at ¼ degree in latitude and longitude, resolving county scale per Nyquist scale requirement estimated at 27 km. Demonstration of improvement (all) – JPL sending SMC images to NDMC; Example using Google Earth. Publications: Drought related meeting abstracts, paper manuscript on going. Programmatic: Subcontracts to all, Year-2 extension to all; Meetings with NASA and NASA reports.

Active/Passive Microwave Signatures

LDAS Precipitation QuikSCAT SMC

Weekly U. S. Drought Monitor at a Very Coarse Scale Week ending 31 Jan 2005 Week ending 30 Jan 2007

Resolution Benchmark A NIDIS Objective : County Level US Drought Monitor: Climate Division Enhanced Drought DSS: County Level Requirement: US Land Area (50 states+DC)= 9,161,923 km² Number of counties = 3141 units Average: Area=2917 km², scale=54 km Nyquist requirement: Scale < 54/2=27 km Satellite data: Better than 27 km A NIDIS Objective : County Level

Severely Wet California – Winter 2005 2004-12-27 2004-12-28 2004-12-30 2004-12-31 2005-01-01 2005-01-07 2005-01-03 2005-01-04 2005-01-05 2005-01-08 2005-01-09 2005-01-11

Severely Dry California – Winter 2007 2006-12-27 2006-12-29 2006-12-30 2006-12-31 2007-01-02 2007-01-08 2007-01-04 2007-01-06 2007-01-07 2007-01-09 2007-01-10 2007-01-11

California Burning

CONUS SMC 080914 On Google Earth

Texas SMC 080914 On Google Earth

County SMC 080914 On Google Earth