INDUS RIVER SYSTEM AUTHORITY (IRSA) “Inter Provincial Water Issues − Challenges and Opportunities ” S.N: 01 Rao Irshad Ali Khan Chairman IRSA May 26-27, 2016 Presentation to IWMI at PC Hotal, Bhurban - Pakistan

Indus Waters Treaty 1960 Water Apportionment Accord 1991 The Water Agreements S.N: 02 Indus Waters Treaty 1960 Water Apportionment Accord 1991

Inter-provincial Water Dispute S.N: 03 The Inter-provincial dispute on Water Distribution was initiated during the construction of two mega Irrigation Projects i.e. Sutlej Valley Canal Project 1932 Sukkur Barrage 1935

Committees / commissions S.N: 04 1937 Anderson Committee 1945 Rau Commission 1968 Akhtar Hussain Committee 1970 Fazal-e-Akbar Committee 1976 Indus Waters Commission (Anwar-ul-Haq Commission) 1983 Haleem Commission 1991 Water Accord

Cusec = Cubic foot per second S.N: 05 Cusec = Cubic foot per second 1 Cusec day = 1 Cusec discharge for 24 hours Acre foot = one foot height of water over one acre 1 Cusec day = 2 acre feet 1 MAF = One million acre feet 1 watering = 3 inches water over 1 acre area 6

Water Account Post Tarbela Average (1976.77 to 2014.15) (MAF) S.N: 06 Western River 138.03 Eastern River 6.54 Total Western & Eastern River 144.57 Provincial Utilization 97.05 System Losses -18.22 * D/S Kotri 29.30 * Required D/S Kotri 8.6 MAF

Western & Eastern River Post Tarbela (1976.77 to 2014.15) (MAF) S.N: 07 Rivers Indus @ Kalabagh Jhelum @ Mangla Chenab @ Marala Eastern Rivers Total Maximum 112.18 (1991-92) 32.00 (1992.93) 32.69 (1988-89) 19.98 (1978-79) 183.45 Minimum 66.81 (2001-02) 11.85 17.85 (2009-10) 0.30 99.05 Average 89.65 22.57 25.80 6.54 144.57

Comparison of Para 14 (b) vs Para 2 (MAF) S.N: 08 Province Para 14 (b) % Para 2 Difference (4-2) % Increase 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Punjab 54.51 53.1 55.94 48.9 1.43 12 Sindh 43.53 42.4 48.76 42.6 5.23 45 Balochistan 1.63 1.6 3.87 3.4 2.24 19 KPK 3.06 3.0 5.78 5.1 2.72 24 Total 102.73 100 114.35 11.62

Comparison of Para 14 (b), 2 & 4 (Percentages) S.N: 09 Province Para 14 (b) Para 2 Para 4 1 2 3 4 Punjab 53.1 48.9 37 Sindh 42.4 42.6 Balochistan 1.6 3.4 12 KPK 3.0 5.1 14 Total 100.0 100

Present Distribution Mechanism of IRSA (THREE TIER FORMULA SINCE 2003) S.N: 10 Scenario I Water Availability < Actual Average System Uses 77-82 Distributed as per 14 (b) of the WAA 1991 Scenario II Water Availability > Actual Average System Uses 77-82 but < Para 2 of WAA 1991 Actual Average System Uses are protected Balance available as per Para 2 i.e. 10-daily approved by CCI Scenario III Water Availability > Para 2 of WAA 1991 Para 2 i.e. 10-daily approved by CCI are protected Balance as per Para 4 of the WAA 1991 Note: KPK & Balochistan are exempted from shortages 11

Para 6 S.N: 11 The need for storages, wherever feasible on the Indus and other rivers was admitted and recognised by the participants for planned future agricultural development. 12

Reservoir Sedimentation S.N: 12 Reservoir Designed Present Sedimentation Tarbela Level 1550.00 MAF % Live Storage 9.68 6.33 -3.35 -35 Mangla 1202.00 5.34 4.50 -0.84 -16 Chashma 649.00 0.72 0.28 -0.44 -61 Total Storage 15.74 11.11 -4.63 -29% Mangla Raising 2013 1242.00 2.90 1242.00 2.90 0.0 Total 18.64 14.01 -25

Provincial Allocations with Additional Storage (MAF) S.N: 13 Province Pre Mangla 1960-66 Post Mangla 1967-76 Post Tarbela 1977-82 Post Kalabagh Post Bhasha & Akhori Punjab 48.35 49.86 54.51 55.94 61.49 Sindh *36.12 40.67 43.53 48.76 54.31 KPK 1.67 2.43 3.06 5.78 7.88 Balochistan - 0.49 1.63 3.87 5.67 Total 86.14 93.45 102.73 114.35 129.35 * Includes Balochistan

Average Annual flow (MAF) Storage Capacity (MAF) AVERAGE ANNUAL FLOW AND STORAGE CAPACITY OF DAMS OF SOME MAJOR RIVER BASINS S.N: 14 Sr. # River Basin Average Annual flow (MAF) No. of Dams Storage Capacity (MAF) % age Storage 1 Colorado 12 3 59.62 497 2 Nile 47 132 281 Sutlej Bias India (Total) 32 750 5 4,636 11.32 245 35 33 4 Yellow River 345 7 68.95 20 Columbia 179 34 19 6 Indus & others Rivers 145 11.50 *14.12 8 10 World 20,000 - 8,000 40 Source: Wapda * After Raising of Mangla

Para 7 S.N: 15 The need for certain minimum escapage to sea, below Kotri, to check sea intrusion was recognised. Sindh held the view, that the optimum level was 10 M.A.F., which was discussed at length, while other studies indicated lower/higher figures. It was, therefore, decided that further studies would be undertaken to establish the minimal escapge needs down stream Kotri.

Recommended Escapage below Kotri S.N: 16 Kharif Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Total Cfs 5000 MAF >=0.3 1.8 +**) Rabi *) Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar cfs 0.3 1.8 Annual 3.6 +**) *) In a dry year the amount can be proportionally reduced in relation to the reductions in irrigation water supply **) A total volume of 25 MAF in any 5 years period (an annual equivalent of 5 MAF) to be released in a concentrated way as flood flow (Kharif period), to be adjusted according to the ruling storage in the reservoirs and the volume discharged in the four previous years.

WATER AVAILABILITY (MAF) POPULATION (Million) 182 Million (2015) 991 m3 2015 5650 S.N: 17

ISSUES 22 MAF being wasted D/S Kotri Escapages D/S Kotri S.N: 18 22 MAF being wasted D/S Kotri Escapages D/S Kotri Prevention/Mitigation of floods Operation of Link Canals Mangla Reservoir Filling KPK’s objection on construction of Kalabagh Dam a) Nowshera will be drowned b) Swabi will be water logged 19

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DRAINAGE LEVELS IN KABUL VALLEY WITH KALABAGH S.N: 19 DRAINAGE LEVELS IN KABUL VALLEY WITH KALABAGH CHARSADDA HISARA DRAIN PABBI NOWSHERA MARDAN SWABI 1000 970 LEVEL IN FEET 955 960 958 940 RESERVOIR RETENATION EL. 915 DISTANCE U/S DAM SITE IN MILES

Line diagram with distance S.N: 21 Skardu 30 MAF 267 KM INDUS RIVER Bhasha 50 MAF 314 KM Tarbela 60 MAF 200 KM Kalabagh 90 MAF 23

Kalabagh v/s Alternatives S.N: 22 Proposed Dams Kalabagh 2. Bhasha 3. Akhori 4. Munda Kalabagh is at tail of mountaineous system & harnesses maximum amount of water of Indus i.e 90 MAF on an Average. It is the most cost-effective Dam No land dispute whatsoever Total integration of the system by construction of Kalabagh-Rasul Link Canal. Major objection of Sindh Province regarding filling of Mangla Reservoir during early Kharif would be addressed Only site from where gravity flows would be available for DIKhan Infrastructure up to Dam site is fully developed; feasibility study vetted & verified by International agencies time & again Flow of Kabul river, being early riser, would be available for EK filling Nearest to National Grid 24