Paul the octopus – and other psychic claims Week 14

My name is paul. I am a psychic octopus. What are your thoughts?

Psychics have been with us throughout history Nostradamus’ prophecies (1500s) In the following predictions, think of alternative explanations. Ready?

The Death of Henry II "The young lion will overcome the older one, On the field of combat in a single battle; He will pierce his eyes through a golden cage, Two wounds made one, then he dies a cruel death."

The Great Fire of London "The blood of the just will be lacking in London, Burnt up in the fire of '66: The ancient Lady will topple from her high place, Many of the same sect will be killed." Fires were common.

The French Revolution "Songs, chants, and demands will come from the enslaved Held captive by the nobility in their prisons At a later date, brainless idiots Will take these as divine utterances." It could have been anywhere; Europe wasn’t that peaceful in that period.

Louis Pasteur's Discoveries "The lost thing is discovered, hidden for many centuries. Pasteur will be celebrated almost as a God-like figure. This is when the moon completes her great cycle, But by other rumors he shall be dishonored." I suspect “Pasteur” is a common surname in France.

The Atomic Bomb "The heavenly dart with stretch its course Death in the speaking: a great achievement The proud nation brought low by the stone in the tree Rumours of a monstrous human, bring purge, then expiation." Heavenly = dropped from plane? Dart = bomb?

JFK's Assassination "The ancient task will be completed From on high, evil will fall on the great man A dead innocent will be accused of the deed The guilty on will remain in the mist." Victim and accused could have been anyone.

Sept. 11, 2001 "The sky will burn at forty-five degrees. Fire approaches the great new city. By fire, he will destroy their city, A cold and cruel heart, blood will pour. Mercy to none." Not sure what’s relevant

What can you conclude from these prophecies? Word it vaguely and it will come true Make 100 predictions and some will come true – more if they are vague

Many philosophers considered wise, but are they? William James is known as the founding father of psychology He’s more of a philosopher Very highly cited till this day, but how many people who cite him have read his books? My point: age-old wisdom is sometimes a mere selection among a pool of ideas

Wisdom as a selection of ideas Wise Person 1 Wise Person 2 D E F A B C When we say a person is wise, we need four pieces of information # things said that did not come true # things said that did come true

Another psychic treatment: Distance healing Not this But this

We are fascinated with psychics Like the Long Island Medium But fortunately there are people who are wiser Sanal Edamaruku: Tantra Challenge Part 2 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NpwCuv_izn4#t=300

Barnum-like effect + Chance capitalization Unfalsifiable predictions … How to be a psychic Barnum-like effect + Chance capitalization Unfalsifiable predictions …

How to become a scientist? Barnum-like effect + Chance capitalization Unfalsifiable predictions … -

Experimental thinking behind scientific psychology Careful manipulation of experimental conditions Ruling out alternative explanations Systematic observation of facts Unbias (or at least we try to be) A B causality Interpretation