2017 Global Economic Outlook

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Presentation transcript:

2017 Global Economic Outlook The Economic Club of Las Vegas December 15, 2016 Lynn Reaser, Ph.D., Chief Economist The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute © FBEI 2016

Global Issues Interest rates Oil prices U.S. dollar China & Europe Immigration Trade and taxes The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute © FBEI 2016

World Economy Firms Index, 50 plus = expansion The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute © FBEI 2016

Negative Interest Rate Experiment Ending 10-yr government bond yields, percent The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute © FBEI 2016

Oil Prices Plunge, Climb Brent Crude Oil, dollars per barrel, quarterly average Actual Forecast f = forecast e = estimate The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute © FBEI 2016

Broad Trade-Weighted Index, Jan. 1997=100, Dec. average U.S. Dollar Soars Broad Trade-Weighted Index, Jan. 1997=100, Dec. average Actual Forecast f = forecast e = estimate The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute © FBEI 2016

Real GDP, percent change over prior year Japan Struggles Real GDP, percent change over prior year f = forecast e = estimate The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute © FBEI 2016

Pesos per U.S. dollar, monthly (inverted scale) Mexico Peso Plummets Pesos per U.S. dollar, monthly (inverted scale) The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute © FBEI 2016

China Keeps Economy Growing Real GDP, percent change over prior year f = forecast e = estimate The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute © FBEI 2016

Eurozone Improves Modestly Real GDP, percent change over prior year f = forecast e = estimate The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute © FBEI 2016

Brexit Pummels UK Pound Pounds per US dollar, daily The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute © FBEI 2016

Migration Crisis Confronts EU First time asylum applicants, quarterly totals, thousands The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute © FBEI 2016

Immigration Drives Over One-Fifth of Nevada’s Population Growth Net immigration change, thousands The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute © FBEI 2016

China, Mexico, and Canada Dominate U.S. Foreign Trade Percent, 2015 The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute © FBEI 2016

China, Mexico, and Canada Comprise 40% of Total Nevada Trade Billions of dollars e = estimate The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute © FBEI 2016

$1 Trillion of Corporate Cash Overseas Billions of dollars The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute © FBEI 2016

World Economy to Expand Moderately Real GDP, percent change over prior year 2015 2017f 2016e f = forecast e = estimate The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute © FBEI 2016

Forecasts Risks Probability, percent The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute © FBEI 2016

Summary U.S. leads world growth Policies diverge across nations Global interest and exchange rates react to shifts in U.S. expectations World awaits Trump trade policies Globalization at risk The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute © FBEI 2016

www.pointloma.edu/fbei Main Office: 619.849.2692 The Fermanian Business & Economic Institute © FBEI 2016