The Politics of U.S Foreign Policy Chapter 9

History: Patterns of Policymaking Globalization Preeminence Rise or Restriction of presidential power Rise of the NSC vis-à-vis State Expansion of the national security bureaucracy Ascent of non-security agencies Resulting complication

Policymaking Stages Agenda setting Policy formulation Policy implementation

Theory: Models of Decisionmaking Rational Actor Groupthink Governmental politics Organizational process

Rational Actor Ideal type – decision and implementation Pyramid of authority President dominates hierarchy Information and advice flow directly to president Decisions based on advice and information EOP staff manages bureaucratic response Rational, centralized and responsive

Groupthink Examples: Johnson, Reagan, Bush Overestimate competency Stereotype out-groups Rationalize decisions Pressure to conform, self-censorship Illusion of consensus Examples: Johnson, Reagan, Bush

Governmental Politics Model Pluralism Diffusion of power Competition Compromise

Organizational Process Model Bureaucracy: information, alternatives and implementation The bureaucracy as an independent driving force Decentralized Feudal Contradictions and incoherence Incremental

Policymaking Levels Presidential Bureaucratic

Cognition and Perception Cognitive structures of belief Selective memory Selective attention and perception Causal inference Cognitive stability

Dominant Theories Cognitive consistency theory: consistency seekers Schema theory: cognitive misers

Common Patterns of Perception and Misperception Categorization and stereotyping Simplifying causal inference Historical analogies

Personality and Decisionmaking Johnson Reagan Bush Obama

Stress and Decisionmaking Low and moderate stress levels High stress levels Short term, long term

Crisis and Stress Heighten salience of time Reduce size of policymaking group Reduce tolerance for ambiguity Increase cognitive rigidity Encourage selective search for information Produce concern for immediate future Minimize communication Increase ad hoc communication Limit alternatives Increase likelihood of polarized choice Disrupt complex learning