Incorporating Reliability into Modeling Tools February 12, 2015

Project Team KAI Metro Metropia MAG Xuesong Zhou Kiel Ova Wayne Kittelson Shaun Quayle Anxi Jia Andy Butsick Metro Peter Bosa Dick Walker Metropia Yi-Chang Chiu Robert Tung MAG Sarath Joshua Eric Nava Xuesong Zhou Kiel Ova

FHWA Partners John Halkias (Systems Management Team Leader) Doug Laird (Congestion Management and Pricing) James Sturrock (ITS Operations Engineer) Chung Tran (Transportation Operations Specialist) Tracy Scriba (SHRP2 Reliability Coordinator)

Southwest Corridor Pilot Test Stakeholders Metro Matt Bihn (Principal Transportation Planner) Anthony Buczek (Transportation Engineer) ODOT Alan Snook (Region 1 Major Projects/Planning Manager) Chi Mai (Region 1 Transportation Analyst) Dennis Mitchell (Region 1 Traffic Engineer) City of Portland Grant Morehead (Planner) John Gillam (Transportation Manager) Washington County Chris Deffebach (Director and TPAC Member) Erin Wardell (Senior Analyst)

Project Overview Purpose Demonstrate the usefulness of reliability metrics Build upon already-completed work Employ accessible models and methods

Project Overview The Role of SW Corridor Stakeholders Provide input on appropriate test strategies and performance metrics Objectively assess the credibility and value of the tool output Become knowledgeable resources for other agencies and peers

Project Overview Southwest Corridor Pilot Test Site Multimodal analysis opportunities Includes major arterial and parallel freeway DynusT and VISSIM already calibrated and operational Sources of unreliability are all in play Weather Crashes Special events Work zones

Project Overview MAG Regional Subarea Pilot Test Site Leverages an existing robust crash database Regional impact assessments of enhanced TIM and ICM strategies Demonstrates tool applicability to a large subarea

Project Overview Analysis Tools DynusT: AMS Data Hub VISSIM open-source DTA in use by many MPO’s Similar input schema AMS Data Hub open-source data integrator Connects to other analysis tools VISSIM Microscopic analysis tool Could extend tool usefulness

Test Plan Southwest Corridor Pilot Test Site Calibrate/validate with 20-30 days of historical data Test effectiveness of various TSM&O strategies Report findings/results to Stakeholder group Solicit feedback on usefulness, credibility, SWOT analysis, et.c

Schedule Project work is on schedule Tool testing and applications work will begin soon The next Stakeholder meeting is expected to be in late summer

Discussion – Test Plan Components Data Collection Calibration and Validation TSM&O Strategies Reliability Metrics

Discussion – Test Plan Components Data Collection Are we missing a useful data source? What is your assessment of the accuracy and reliability of these data sources? Are these data available and accessible to your agency? Other data-related issues?

Discussion – Test Plan Components Calibration and Validation Has the right time window been selected? What are reasonable calibration targets? What would you consider to be maximum tolerable analysis time limits? Other calibration/validation issues?

Discussion – Test Plan Components TSM&O Strategies Any proposed strategies that should NOT be tested? Other test strategies that might offer greater insights? Other issues related to TSM&O strategies?

Discussion – Test Plan Components Reliability Metrics What metric(s) are most helpful in your technical assessments? What metric(s) will best inform decision makers? What metrics would define an acceptable analysis process? Other issues related to performance metrics?

Discussion – Test Plan Components Data Collection Are we missing a useful data source? Calibration and Validation Has the right time window been selected? What are reasonable calibrateion targets? TSM&O Strategies Any proposed strategies that should NOT be tested? Other test strategies that might offer greater insights? Reliability Metrics What metric(s) are most helpful in your technical assessments? What metric(s) will best inform decision makers?

Discussion – Feedback Expectations Credibility Analysis process Analysis results Value Sensitivity to improvement strategy alternatives Decision-making process SWOT Analysis Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities Threats Other

Next Steps Develop Analysis Framework FEB-MAR Prepare and Calibrate Analysis Tools MAR-APR Pilot Test the Analysis Tools on SW Corridor Network APR-JUN Summarize and Present Results JUN-JUL Solicit Stakeholder Feedback (2-Hr Meeting) JUL-AUG