2011 Census The First Results I’ll just spend a few moments giving you an overview on the 2011 Census results which were released on Monday. They were just the top level results so at local authority district that is just the size of the population by 5 year age group. More detailed information will be available later in the year.

A survey of all people and households in the country What is the Census? A survey of all people and households in the country Carried out every decade since 1801 (except 1941) Provides an accurate picture of the size of the population and it’s characteristics Used to allocate resources and plan services So first of all, a very quick review of what a census is. It is a survey of all people and households in the country and has been carried out in Britain every decade since 1801, apart from during the 2nd world war. Since 1920, completion has been mandatory – although there is never a 100% response rate. It is used to try to determine what the size of the population is and also its characteristics. It is the main source of information on the characteristics of an area and will be used as the basis for a high proportion of statistics going forward. The Census figures are used to allocate resources and to plan services.

2011 Results: Total Population Milton Keynes population = 248,800 Increase of 36,100 (+17%) since 2001 7th fastest growing local authority district in England The 2011 Census estimates the Milton Keynes Population to have been 248,800 in 2011 . This is an increase of 36,100 people since 2001. Which is a 17% increase. Milton Keynes was the 7th fastest growing local authority between 2001-2011 only behind 5 London Boroughs and Manchester. That takes us to be the 59th largest local authority district in England. Up from 66th in 2001 (of 325). So that’s up 7 places – overtaking the likes of Salford and Southampton. We are now a similar size to Wolverhampton (249,500), Stoke on Trent (249,000) and Derby (248,700).

2011 Results: Age Structure The table here shows the age profile of Milton Keynes and England. It outlines that the Milton Keynes population is more youthful than the national average. We can see that there are about 52,000 people aged 0-14 in MK. This is 21% of the population, compared to 17.7% nationally. 28,800 people are in the older children/young adult age group, this is a lower proportion than nationally. 24% of our population are aged 25-39 much higher than the England figure of 20%. There are 27,600 people aged 65+ this is 11.1% compared to 16.3% in England.

2011 Results: Age Structure This population pyramid goes into more detail on the age profile and compares it with the 2001 figures. The bars are the 2011 results – male in dark green, females in light green – whilst the 2001 results are the lines - males in red and females in orange. You can see that all age groups grow between 2001 and 2011. However certain age groups grew more than others. The highest growth rate occurred in the 60-64 age group; it increased by 74% from 7,600 in 2001 to 13,200 in 2011. This is as a result of the baby boomers born just after WWII. So this age group would have been born just after the war whilst the older age group are those born during the war and hence significantly lower. Also note that the 0-4 age group also had a high growth rate of 38% or 5,500 people between 2001 and 2011. This is backed up by the number of births increasing for example in 2010 there were 3,900 births in Milton Keynes, in 2000 there were 2,900. An interesting part of the pyramid for is the 20-24 age group. You can see the growth is very low and there is a pronounced difference compared with the 25-29. That I would suggest is due, in part at least, to that age group migrating away to other towns and cities for university. That age group in an area with a large university campus like Sheffield of Nottingham would be much higher. In Nottingham for example this is the largest age group by quite a margin, accounting for 14% of the total population compared with 5.7% in MK.

2011 Census: Accuracy 2001 Census result for Milton Keynes was lower than expected and was revised upwards. Office for National Statistics put in place robust quality assurance processes for the 2011 Census. OK now a few words on the accuracy of the results. 2001 Census results were revised by ONS because they were deemed to be too low (MK 207,000 to 212,000). Therefore the ONS put in place more robust quality assurance processes for the 2011 Census. A successful Census field operation will never be able to count all people - some people just won’t fill in the form. In Milton Keynes the 2011 Census had an estimated response rate of 93%, nationally it was 94%. The Census can also count some people twice, for example students may have been recorded at both their term time and parents address. Therefore the Census figures are adjusted by ONS for under and over enumeration and for bias. To help with this they undertook a Census Coverage Survey after the Census which took a sample of areas and used different methods – interviews – to estimate the population. This was then compared with the Census fieldwork results which were used to work out any areas of under or over counting. This table shows the QA process for Milton Keynes. 231,800 people were recorded via returned Census forms, ONS then added on 14,200 people to account for people who were missed. They then took off 1,200 to account for those that were counted twice. They added 2,300 to adjust for bias, a further 1,700 were added due to national adjustments and then 100 people were thought to be in communal establishments. After all that we get to our Census figures of 248,800.

2011 Census: Accuracy The results do seem accurate. They are slightly higher than expected based on past ONS estimates. The results do seem accurate. Although they are slightly higher than what we would expect from past ONS estimates. The table here shows that the last ONS estimate was for 2010 and estimated 241,500 – based on that we estimated the 2011 population to be 245,750. So as you can see the Census figure is higher compared with our 2011 estimate but only by around 3,000 or 1.2%.

Update data as and when it gets updated by the source. 2011 Census: Next Steps More detailed results will be released between November 2012 - February 2013. Consult with users of Census data to see what we can provide when the more detailed information comes out. Update data as and when it gets updated by the source. So where does that leave us… More detailed results will be released between November and February. This is where we will learn more about the characteristics of the population including ethnicity, qualifications, and household composition as well as data at ward level. So this is really when most of the information is released. We will consult with users of Census data to see what we can provide when the more detailed information comes out. For example reports on characteristics of certain age groups, area profiles etc. In the same process we will also ask people if they want to be part of a Census mailing list, where we will email when any updates come out. The Census data does affect most other statistics, so for example the Census figures are used to produce the population denominators for unemployment rates, so ONS will revise those figures sometime in the future. We will keep up to date with those changes and revise our publications accordingly.

2011 Census Any Questions? So those are main headlines so far. Are there any questions or comments?